Browns vs Saints Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 11

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(AP Photo/Matt Durisko)

BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Nov 13, 2024, 3:59 PM

The Saints are -1 point favorites vs the Browns
Total (Over/Under): 44.5 points
Watch this game on FOX

The Cleveland Browns (2-7-0) visit Caesars Superdome to take on the New Orleans Saints (3-7-0) on Nov. 17. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EST in New Orleans, LA.

The Saints are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -1 (-110).

The Browns vs. Saints Over/Under is 44.5 total points for the game.

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Browns vs. Saints Odds, Spread, Over/Under

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Browns	+1 -110	44.5 -110	-105
Saints	-1 -110	44.5 -110	-115

Browns vs. Saints Prediction

The winning team model predicts the Browns will win this game with 69.4% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

Browns vs Saints Spread Prediction

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Saints will cover the spread with 61.7% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Browns players this playoff game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Browns Player Prop Bets Today

Jerome Ford has hit the Carries Under in 13 of his last 15 games (+10.80 Units / 59% ROI)
Deshaun Watson has hit the Passing Yards Under in his last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 85% ROI)
David Njoku has hit the Longest Reception Over in 7 of his last 8 games (+5.80 Units / 61% ROI)
Jerry Jeudy has hit the Receptions Under in 12 of his last 18 games (+5.70 Units / 25% ROI)
David Njoku has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 10 of his last 14 games (+5.35 Units / 33% ROI)

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Saints players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Saints Player Prop Best Bets Today

Derek Carr has hit the TD Passes Over in 9 of his last 14 games (+7.80 Units / 55% ROI)
Derek Carr has hit the Pass Attempts Under in his last 7 games at home (+7.00 Units / 82% ROI)
Derek Carr has hit the Completions Under in 6 of his last 7 games at home (+4.70 Units / 54% ROI)
Foster Moreau has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 8 of his last 11 games (+4.45 Units / 34% ROI)
Juwan Johnson has hit the Receptions Under in 6 of his last 8 games at home (+4.05 Units / 40% ROI)

Browns Best Bets:

The Cleveland Browns have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 14 of their last 21 games (+6.30 Units / 26% ROI)
The Cleveland Browns have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 12 of their last 18 games (+5.30 Units / 25% ROI)
The Cleveland Browns have hit the Game Total Over in 7 of their last 10 away games (+3.70 Units / 34% ROI)
The Cleveland Browns have hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 10 of their last 21 games (+2.65 Units / 11% ROI)
The Cleveland Browns have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 10 of their last 18 games (+2.55 Units / 13% ROI)

Saints Best Bets:

The New Orleans Saints have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 14 of their last 20 games (+7.10 Units / 31% ROI)
The New Orleans Saints have covered the 4Q Spread in 7 of their last 9 games at home (+4.80 Units / 47% ROI)
The New Orleans Saints have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 11 of their last 17 games (+4.15 Units / 21% ROI)
The New Orleans Saints have hit the Team Total Over in 7 of their last 10 games at home (+4.10 Units / 36% ROI)
The New Orleans Saints have scored last in 5 of their last 6 games (+4.00 Units / 56% ROI)

Browns Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Browns art 3-6 (-3.65 Units / -36.32% ROI).

Browns are 2-7 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.45 Units / -46.98% ROI
Browns are 3-6 when betting the Over for -3.6 Units / -36.36% ROI
Browns are 6-3 when betting the Under for +2.7 Units / ROI

Saints Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Saints are 4-6 (-2.55 Units / -23.5% ROI).

Saints are 3-7 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.75 Units / -34.8% ROI
Saints are 6-4 when betting the Over for +1.6 Units / 14.55% ROI
Saints are 4-6 when betting the Under for -2.6 Units / -23.64% ROI

Cleveland Browns: Keys to the Game vs. the New Orleans Saints

The Browns are 9-1 (.900) when allowing less than 3 sacks since the 2023 season — best in NFL. The Saints have averaged just 2.1 sacks per game over that time span — T-3rd-worst in NFL.

The Browns were 3-1 (.750) when not forcing a turnover last season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .265.

The Browns are 1-7 (.125) when converting less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities this season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .445.

The Browns were undefeated (4-0) when the opposing team converts less than 55% of its red zone chances into touchdowns last season — best in NFL; League Avg: .536.

New Orleans Saints: Keys to the Game vs. the Cleveland Browns

The Saints are winless (0-4) whe trailing at the end of the frist half this season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .290.

The Saints are winless (0-13) when trailing at the end of the third quarter since the 2023 season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .149.

The Saints are 1-11 (.083) whe trailing at the end of the frist half since the 2023 season — T-2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .243.

Additional Matchup Notes for Cleveland Browns vs. New Orleans Saints

The Saints have been successful on just 37.6% of plays they have ran against a base rush this season — 4th-worst in NFL. The Browns have allowed their opponents to be successful on just 38.3% of plays with a base rush this season — 5th-best in NFL.

The Saints have scored on 26.8% of their drives in the second half this season — 3rd-worst in NFL. The Browns defense has allowed scores on 26.8% of opponent drives in the second half this season — 5th-best in NFL.

The Saints have scored on 24.3% of their drives in the fourth quarter this season — 3rd-worst in NFL. The Browns defense has allowed scores on 15.6% of opponent drives in the 4th quarter this season — best in NFL.

The Browns have run just 10.2% offensive plays in the red zone this season — worst in NFL. The Saints have allowed their opponent to run just 12.6% of plays in the red zone this season — T-5th-best in NFL.

The Browns have a third down conversion rate of just 30.5% since the 2023 season — worst in NFL. The Saints defense has allowed a third down conversion rate of just 35.7% since the 2023 season — T-4th-best in NFL.

The Browns have run successful plays on just 35.4% of pass attempts with motion since the 2023 season — worst in NFL. The Saints have allowed successful plays on just 41.5% of pass attempts against motion since the 2023 season — 3rd-best in NFL.

Cleveland Browns Offense: Important Stats

The Browns have averaged 0.00 epa per play against open coverage this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 0.39.

The Browns have averaged -0.24 epa per play on motion plays since the 2023 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: -0.01.

The Browns have a third down conversion rate of 14% on motion plays this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 41%.

The Browns have run successful plays on 35% of pass attempts on motion plays since the 2023 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 47%.

New Orleans Saints Offense: Important Stats

The Saints have averaged 0.22 epa per play on contested throws since the 2023 season — best in NFL; League Avg: -0.11.

The Saints have targeted RBs 27% of the time (85 Pass Attempts/314 plays) this season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 17%.

The Saints have run successful plays on 30% of pass attempts against a base front since Week 7 — worst in NFL; League Avg: 47%.

The Saints have run successful plays on 29% of pass attempts against a base rush since Week 7 — worst in NFL; League Avg: 46%.

Cleveland Browns Defense: Important Stats

The Browns defense allowed successful plays on 34% of pass attempts from their own territory last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 47%.

The Browns defense allowed successful plays on 11% of plays on contested throws last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 33%.

The Browns defense allowed successful plays on 38% of plays first read passes last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 52%.

The Browns defense allowed -0.11 epa per play first read passes last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 0.20.

New Orleans Saints Defense: Important Stats

The Saints defense has allowed a third down conversion rate of 45% on 3rd and short since the 2023 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 59%.

The Saints defense has allowed first downs on 29% of pass attempts on 3rd and short since the 2023 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 56%.

The Saints defense has allowed first downs on just 45% of plays on 3rd and short since the 2023 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 59%.

The Saints defense has allowed successful plays on 40% of pass attempts with a base rush since the 2023 season — 3rd-best in NFL; League Avg: 46%.

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