- The Browns are -2.5 against the Cowboys in Week 1.
- Cleveland led the league in home points per game allowed last season.
- I predict this Week 1 game will stay under the total.
Seeking their third straight Week 1 victory, the Cleveland Browns welcome the Dallas Cowboys to Cleveland.
Both teams produced strong campaigns in 2023-24. Cleveland claimed 11 wins to finish second in the AFC North before falling to Houston in the wild card round.
For Dallas, it was the same story, different year.
The Cowboys won the NFC East regular season title, but they lost convincingly to Green Bay in their first playoff game.
Here’s a look at the NFL betting lines and my prediction for this Week 1 contest.
Browns vs. Cowboys Odds
- Cleveland Browns Moneyline: -145
- Dallas Cowboys Moneyline: +120
- Game Spread: Browns -2.5
- Game Over/Under: 40.5 Points
Browns vs. Cowboys Prediction, Week 1
Based on the quality of both defenses, I predict this game will stay Under 42.5 Points (-110).
The Browns, under new defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz, led the NFL last season in home points per game allowed (13.7).
A relatively easy schedule definitely contributed to that ranking, but Cleveland held two of three opponents that finished the year 13th or better in EPA per play under 17 points.
Irrespective of venue, the Browns led the league in dropback EPA per play last season. That should arm them to defend a Cowboys offense that will likely rely on the passing game this year.
Plus, Dallas’ offense took a major dip when they traveled last season.
The Cowboys led the league in home points per game (36.8) but ranked ninth in road points per game (23.3).
Even more concerning? Dallas played only three outdoor road games last season against teams that finished the year 11th or better in defensive EPA per play.
In those three games, Dallas averaged only 13.3 points per game and stayed under 21 points in all three.
At the same time, I don’t trust this Browns offense.
The Cowboys ranked fourth in defensive EPA per play last season. Cleveland, in six games last year against teams 10th or better in that stat, averaged 18.1 points per game.
It’s a touch concerning they cleared 21 points in three of those games, but two of those successes came in Week 10 or later.
Earlier in the season, I’ll take the under in Cleveland.
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