Cardinals vs 49ers Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 5

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(Kyusung Gong/AP Photo)

BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Oct 04, 2024, 11:51 AM

The 49ers are -7.5 point favorites vs the Cardinals
Total (Over/Under): 49.5 points
Watch this game on FOX

The Arizona Cardinals (1-3-0) visit Levi’s Stadium to take on the San Francisco 49ers (2-2-0) on Oct. 6. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:05pm EDT in Santa Clara, CA.

The 49ers are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -7.5 (-105).

The Cardinals vs. 49ers Over/Under is 49.5 total points for the game.

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Cardinals vs. 49ers Odds, Spread, Over/Under

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Cardinals	+7.5 -115	49.5 -110	+280
49ers	-7.5 -105	49.5 -110	-350

Cardinals vs. 49ers Prediction

The winning team model predicts the 49ers will win this game with 70.0% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

Cardinals vs 49ers Spread Prediction

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Cardinals will cover the spread with 66.9% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Cardinals players this playoff game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Cardinals Player Prop Bets Today

James Conner has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 10 of his last 13 games (+6.35 Units / 39% ROI)
James Conner has hit the Longest Rush Over in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 85% ROI)
Chris Moore has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 6 of his last 7 games (+4.85 Units / 58% ROI)
James Conner has hit the Longest Reception Under in 6 of his last 7 games (+4.75 Units / 56% ROI)
Kyler Murray has hit the Carries Under in 8 of his last 11 games (+4.20 Units / 30% ROI)

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for 49ers players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best 49ers Player Prop Best Bets Today

Christian McCaffrey has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 9 of his last 10 games (+7.85 Units / 67% ROI)
George Kittle has hit the Longest Reception Over in 10 of his last 12 games (+7.60 Units / 54% ROI)
Christian McCaffrey has hit the Longest Rush Over in 9 of his last 11 games (+6.75 Units / 53% ROI)
Christian McCaffrey has hit the Carries Under in 10 of his last 13 games (+6.00 Units / 34% ROI)
Kyle Juszczyk has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 7 of his last 8 games (+5.70 Units / 62% ROI)

Cardinals Best Bets:

The Arizona Cardinals have hit the 2H Moneyline in 6 of their last 8 games (+7.10 Units / 89% ROI)
The Arizona Cardinals have covered the 2H Spread in 6 of their last 8 games (+3.70 Units / 42% ROI)
The Arizona Cardinals have scored last in 6 of their last 10 games (+3.50 Units / 34% ROI)
The Arizona Cardinals have hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 12 of their last 20 games (+2.70 Units / 11% ROI)
The Arizona Cardinals have scored first in 6 of their last 12 games (+2.40 Units / 20% ROI)

49ers Best Bets:

The San Francisco 49ers have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 14 of their last 19 games (+8.05 Units / 35% ROI)
The San Francisco 49ers have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 9 of their last 11 games at home (+6.80 Units / 56% ROI)
The San Francisco 49ers have hit the 1H Moneyline in 16 of their last 22 games (+4.50 Units / 8% ROI)
The San Francisco 49ers have hit the 2H Game Total Over in 6 of their last 8 games at home (+3.85 Units / 45% ROI)
The San Francisco 49ers have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 12 of their last 19 games (+3.80 Units / 17% ROI)

Cardinals Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Cardinals art 2-2 (-0.3 Units / -6.67% ROI).

Cardinals are 1-3 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.75 Units / -56.7% ROI
Cardinals are 3-1 when betting the Over for +1.9 Units / 43.18% ROI
Cardinals are 1-3 when betting the Under for -2.3 Units / ROI

49ers Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the 49ers are 2-2 (-0.2 Units / -4.55% ROI).

49ers are 2-2 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.75 Units / -21.91% ROI
49ers are 3-1 when betting the Over for +1.9 Units / 43.18% ROI
49ers are 1-3 when betting the Under for -2.3 Units / -52.27% ROI

Arizona Cardinals: Keys to the Game vs. the San Francisco 49ers

The Cardinals are winless (0-3) when forcing 2 or more turnovers since the 2023 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .705.

The Cardinals were winless (0-3) when forcing 2 or more turnovers last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .707.

The Cardinals were 1-6 (.143) when sacking the QB 3 or more times last season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .650.

The Cardinals are 1-14 (.067) when converting less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities since the 2023 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .431.

San Francisco 49ers: Keys to the Game vs. the Arizona Cardinals

The 49ers were winless (0-3) when within 7 points at the two minute warning last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .500.

The 49ers are winless (0-4) when within 7 points at the two minute warning since the 2023 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .500.

The 49ers are 13-2 (.867) when rushing for 120 or more yards since the 2023 season — 4th-best in NFL. The Cardinals have allowed an average of 144.5 rushing yards per game since the 2023 season — worst in NFL.

The 49ers are 10-3 (.769) when allowing less than 3 sacks since the 2023 season — T-8th-best in NFL. The Cardinals have averaged just 2.0 sacks per game over that time span — 3rd-worst in NFL.

Additional Matchup Notes for Arizona Cardinals vs. San Francisco 49ers

The 49ers have run successful plays on 55.0% of pass attempts against a base rush this season — 3rd-best in NFL. The Cardinals have allowed successful plays on 60.2% of pass attempts with a base rush this season — worst in NFL.

The 49ers have run successful plays on 56.2% of pass attempts with motion since the 2023 season — best in NFL. The Cardinals have allowed successful plays on 54.7% of pass attempts against motion since the 2023 season — worst in NFL.

The 49ers have run successful plays on 49.1% of rush attempts since the 2023 season — 2nd-best in NFL. The Cardinals have allowed successful plays on 46.7% of rush attempts since the 2023 season — 2nd-worst in NFL.

The Cardinals have run successful plays on 61.5% of pass attempts against a light front this season — best in NFL. The 49ers have allowed successful plays on 58.8% of pass attempts with a light front this season — 4th-worst in NFL.

The Cardinals have averaged just 0.21 epa per play against open coverage since the 2023 season — 3rd-worst in NFL. The 49ers have allowed just 0.27 epa per play with open coverage since the 2023 season — T-3rd-best in NFL.

The Cardinals allowed opponents to pressure their QB on 36.4% of pass attempts last week — 5th-worst in NFL. The 49ers had pressured opposing QBs on 50.0% of passing plays last week — best in NFL.

Arizona Cardinals Offense: Important Stats

The Cardinals have run successful plays on 72% of pass attempts in the 1st quarter this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 46%.

The Cardinals have scored 4 TDs on first drive of the game this season — most in NFL.

The Cardinals went for two on 36% of PATs last season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 10%.

The Cardinals had 23 rushes of 20+ yards last season — most in NFL.

San Francisco 49ers Offense: Important Stats

The 49ers averaged 9.3 yards per attempt (4,577 yards/491 attempts) last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 7.0.

The 49ers have completed passes for 20+ yards on 93 of their 613 total passing attempts (15%) since the 2023 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 9%.

The 49ers ran successful plays on 51% of plays last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 42%.

The 49ers averaged 0.16 epa per play on the road last season — best in NFL; League Avg: -0.04.

Arizona Cardinals Defense: Important Stats

The Cardinals defense has allowed a third down conversion rate of 55% on third and 10+ yards to go this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 17%.

The Cardinals defense has allowed first downs on 47% of plays on 3rd down since the 2023 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 39%.

The Cardinals defense allowed 6 TD passes when the opposing QB was scrambling last season — most in NFL.

The Cardinals defense has allowed a third down conversion rate of 47% since the 2023 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 39%.

San Francisco 49ers Defense: Important Stats

The 49ers defense forced 5 fumbles in Week 4 — most in NFL.

The 49ers defense has allowed successful plays on 10% of plays with a light rush since the 2023 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 39%.

The 49ers defense have allowed -0.56 epa per play with a light rush since the 2023 season — best in NFL; League Avg: -0.02.

The 49ers defense allowed successful plays on 10% of plays with a light rush last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 39%.

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