- The Chargers are -3 point favorites vs the Broncos
- Total (Over/Under): 35.5 points
- Watch this game on CBS
The Los Angeles Chargers (2-2-0) visit Empower Field at Mile High to take on the Denver Broncos (3-2-0) on Oct. 13. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:05pm EDT in Denver, CO.
The Chargers are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -3 (-105).
The Chargers vs. Broncos Over/Under is 35.5 total points for the game.
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Chargers vs. Broncos Odds, Spread, Over/Under
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Chargers | -3 -105 | 35.5 -110 | -155 |
| Broncos | +3 -115 | 35.5 -110 | +125 |
Chargers vs. Broncos Prediction
The winning team model predicts the Chargers will win this game with 62.3% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
Chargers vs Broncos Spread Prediction
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Chargers will cover the spread with 52.0% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Chargers players this playoff game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Chargers Player Prop Bets Today
- D.J. Chark has hit the Longest Reception Over in 10 of his last 11 games (+8.85 Units / 70% ROI)
- Hayden Hurst has hit the Receptions Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+6.80 Units / 49% ROI)
- Justin Herbert has hit the Passing Yards Under in 10 of his last 13 games (+6.40 Units / 40% ROI)
- Justin Herbert has hit the Completions Under in his last 6 away games (+6.00 Units / 75% ROI)
- Hayden Hurst has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 5 away games (+5.00 Units / 76% ROI)
And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Broncos players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Broncos Player Prop Best Bets Today
- Marvin Mims Jr. has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 11 of his last 14 games (+7.45 Units / 44% ROI)
- Javonte Williams has hit the Receptions Over in 7 of his last 8 games at home (+6.85 Units / 75% ROI)
- Courtland Sutton has hit the Longest Reception Over in 9 of his last 11 games (+6.75 Units / 53% ROI)
- Marvin Mims Jr. has hit the Longest Reception Under in 9 of his last 11 games (+6.50 Units / 48% ROI)
- Courtland Sutton has hit the Receptions Under in 7 of his last 8 games at home (+6.10 Units / 64% ROI)
Chargers Best Bets:
- The Los Angeles Chargers have hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 14 of their last 17 games (+11.25 Units / 56% ROI)
- The Los Angeles Chargers have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 6 of their last 8 away games (+3.95 Units / 42% ROI)
- The Los Angeles Chargers have hit the 2H Moneyline in 3 of their last 5 games (+3.45 Units / 61% ROI)
- The Los Angeles Chargers have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 5 of their last 9 away games (+3.35 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Los Angeles Chargers have covered the 2H Spread in 4 of their last 5 games (+2.90 Units / 54% ROI)
Broncos Best Bets:
- The Denver Broncos have hit the 1H Moneyline in 14 of their last 21 games (+10.85 Units / 40% ROI)
- The Denver Broncos have hit the Moneyline in 13 of their last 21 games (+9.95 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Denver Broncos have covered the 1Q Spread in 16 of their last 21 games (+9.75 Units / 39% ROI)
- The Denver Broncos have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 12 of their last 21 games (+7.35 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Denver Broncos have covered the 1H Spread in 9 of their last 11 games at home (+6.85 Units / 56% ROI)
Chargers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Chargers art 2-1 (+0.9 Units / 20.45% ROI).
- Chargers are 2-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +0 Units / 0% ROI
- Chargers are 0-4 when betting the Over for -4.4 Units / -100% ROI
- Chargers are 4-0 when betting the Under for +4 Units / ROI
Broncos Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Broncos are 4-1 (+2.95 Units / 54.63% ROI).
- Broncos are 3-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.35 Units / 79.09% ROI
- Broncos are 2-3 when betting the Over for -1.3 Units / -23.64% ROI
- Broncos are 3-2 when betting the Under for +0.8 Units / 14.55% ROI
Los Angeles Chargers: Keys to the Game vs. the Denver Broncos
The Chargers were winless (0-9) when converting less than 55% of its red zone chances into touchdowns last season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .464.
The Chargers were 2-8 (.200) when within 7 points entering the 4th quarter last season — T-2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .500.
The Chargers were 1-8 (.111) when scoring less than 22 points last season — 4th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .253.
The Chargers are 1-5 (.167) vs top 10 run offenses since the 2023 season — T-2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .431.
Denver Broncos: Keys to the Game vs. the Los Angeles Chargers
The Broncos are winless (0-4) when throwing 2 or more interceptions since the 2023 season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .183.
The Broncos were winless (0-6) when committing 2 or more turnovers last season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .293.
The Broncos were 4-5 (.444) when sacking the QB less than 3 times last season — T-9th-best in NFL; League Avg: .363.
The Broncos were 4-8 (.333) when committing 1 or more turnovers last season — T-10th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .406.
Additional Matchup Notes for Los Angeles Chargers vs. Denver Broncos
The Broncos have gone three and out on 34.9% of their drives this season — 2nd-worst in NFL. The Chargers have forced three and outs on 32.6% of opponent drives this season — 2nd-best in NFL.
The Broncos have been successful on just 35.8% of plays they have ran against a base rush this season — T-4th-worst in NFL. The Chargers have allowed their opponents to be successful on just 33.6% of plays with a base rush this season — 3rd-best in NFL.
The Broncos have run successful plays on just 42.5% of pass attempts against a stacked front since the 2023 season — 5th-worst in NFL. The Chargers have allowed successful plays on just 21.4% of pass attempts with a stacked front since the 2023 season — best in NFL.
The Chargers have run successful plays on just 22.2% of rush attempts against a light front this season — 4th-worst in NFL. The Broncos have allowed successful plays on just 25.0% of rush attempts with a light front this season — T-4th-best in NFL.
The Chargers have run successful plays on just 36.4% of rush attempts on play action passes since the 2023 season — T-3rd-worst in NFL. The Broncos have allowed successful plays on just 28.6% of rush attempts on play action passes since the 2023 season — 2nd-best in NFL.
The Chargers have run successful plays on just 34.9% of rush attempts this season — 3rd-worst in NFL. The Broncos have allowed successful plays on just 30.8% of rush attempts this season — best in NFL.
Los Angeles Chargers Offense: Important Stats
The Chargers have run successful plays on 17% of plays against a light front this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 39%.
The Chargers ran successful plays on 29% of pass attempts against a stacked front last season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 50%.
The Chargers have thrown the ball 7% of the time (1 Pass Attempts/14 plays) on 3rd and short this season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 42%.
The Chargers have run successful plays on 11% of pass attempts against a light front this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 41%.
Denver Broncos Offense: Important Stats
The Broncos have run successful plays on 26% of pass attempts on motion plays this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 46%.
The Broncos have averaged -0.29 epa per play on motion plays this season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 0.00.
The Broncos ran 113% of their plays in their opponent’s territory in the 4th quarter in Week 5 — best in NFL; League Avg: 54%.
The Broncos ran 86% of their plays in their opponent’s territory in the 2nd half in Week 5 — best in NFL; League Avg: 51%.
Los Angeles Chargers Defense: Important Stats
Offenses facing the Chargers targeted RBs 28% of the time (33 Pass Attempts/120 plays) this season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 17%.
Offenses facing the Chargers targeted WRs 40% of the time (48 Pass Attempts/120 plays) this season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 59%.
The Chargers defense has allowed scores on 12% of opponent drives in the 1st half this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 40%.
The Chargers defense has allowed successful plays on 6% of rush attempts in the 1st quarter this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 42%.
Denver Broncos Defense: Important Stats
The Broncos defense allowed a passer rating of 135.6 against play action passes (123 Pass Attempts) last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 101.1.
The Broncos defense have allowed 0.03 epa per play open coverage this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 0.39.
The Broncos defense blitzed on 65% of plays in Week 5 — highest in NFL; League Avg: 19%.
The Broncos defense has blitzed 106 times this season — 3rd-most in NFL.
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More NFL Betting Predictions:
- Anytime & First Touchdown Scorer Predictions
- Receiving Yards Prop Predictions
- Rushing Yards Prop Predictions
- Passing Yards Prop Predictions
- Receptions Made Prop Predictions
- Rushing Attempts Prop Predictions
- Passing Touchdowns Prop Predictions
- QB Interception Prop Predictions
- Field Goals Made Prop Predictions
- NFL Betting Previews: Every Game
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