- The Chargers are a 2.5-point home underdog against the Ravens.
- The Ravens have won 15 straight games as favorites following a Division loss.
- My Chargers vs. Ravens prediction is for Baltimore to cover the spread.
It’s a meeting between the brothers Harbaugh on Monday Night Football with the Chargers hosting the Ravens.
Baltimore’s two-game winning streak ended in Week 11. As road favorites in Pittsburgh, the Ravens fell 18-16 despite outgaining the Steelers.
The Chargers, meanwhile, continued to earn positive results. Los Angeles beat the Cincinnati Bengals 34-27 to capture a fourth straight win and fifth win in six.
Bet on Chargers vs. Ravens and other NFL matchups with up-to-date NFL odds.
NFL Week 12 Odds: Chargers vs. Ravens
Chargers vs. Ravens Prediction, MNF
Based on Lamar Jackson’s record as a short market favorite, my Chargers vs. Ravens prediction is the Ravens Spread (-3, -110).
The time has finally come to sell the Chargers. Los Angeles has closed a market favorite in six straight games, winning five of those contests outright.
However, this team is 0-2 SU as a market underdog this season. It’s also a chance to sell the Chargers defense, which is 10th in DVOA, but has played the easiest set of offenses.
That regression should come in spades against Baltimore, which leads the league in offensive DVOA, per ftnfantasy.com.
On the other side of the ball, it’s a nightmare matchup for the Chargers offense.
A team that loves to run the ball shouldn’t find much success against a Ravens defense second in both rush EPA per play and rush success rate.
Not since Week 4 against the Chiefs have the Chargers played such an opponent. That contest saw Los Angeles fall 17-10 with only 55 rushing yards, their lowest output of the season.
If the Chargers can’t run the ball, it likely means they lose the game. Entering Week 12, the Chargers are 0-3 SU when they accumulate under 95 rushing yards.
It’s also a great spot to buy low on Jackson, who is 36-24-1 ATS outside of the division in his career, including 8-2 between -3 and -0.5.
History also likes this spot for the Ravens. Since 2003, road favorites off a loss as favorites are 63% ATS, assuming they fall between -6.5 and -3.
When those teams are playing a conference matchup, they improve to 65% ATS, including 67% since the 2019 season.
Back the Ravens so long as they remain available at -3 or better on Monday.
Betting Chargers vs. Ravens: NFL Public Betting
| Bets% (Spread) | Money% (Spread) | Bets% (ML) | Money% (ML) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ravens | 67% | 76% | 41% | 65% |
| Chargers | 33% | 24% | 59% | 35% |
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