- The Bears’ 2024 preseason win total is set at 8.5 wins at BetMGM.
- Chicago won seven games in 2023, and drafted Caleb Williams with the first overall pick.
- The case for Chicago to finish with a winning record in 2024.
For the 2024 NFL season, the Bears win total sits at 8.5 wins at the BetMGM online sportsbook.
Chicago’s offseason can best be described as eventful. Following a seven-win campaign last year, they drafted Caleb Williams first overall and added loads of offensive weapons.
Included in those additions are Keenan Allen, D’Andre Swift and rookie wide receiver Rome Odunze.
Here’s a look at the NFL betting lines for Chicago’s 2024 win total.
Bears Win Total Odds
The Bears’ season win total is set at 8.5 games, with loads of price movement thus far.
Oddsmakers expect the over is the more likely outcome. Currently, Chicago is -165 to win nine or more games, an implied probability of 62.3%.
Meanwhile, the odds for them to finish with eight or fewer wins is +140, an implied probability of 41.7%.
Here are the 2024 NFL win totals for all NFC North teams:
- Detroit Lions: 10.5 Wins
- Green Bay Packers: 9.5 Wins
- Chicago Bears: 8.5 Wins
- Minnesota Vikings: 6.5 Wins
Bears Win Total Prediction 2024
LEAN Bears Over 8.5 Wins (-165)
All signs point to the Bears clearing this win total, which makes me question if it’s too obvious a pick.
Both bets and money are flowing in on the Bears to clear this number. As of June 12, 64% of tickets and 83% of dollars are on the over.
Accordingly, the price has jumped from -110 at market open to -165.
Additionally, the Bears play one of the easiest schedules in the NFL.
Based on opponent win totals, Chicago owns the third-easiest schedule in the league, behind only Atlanta and the Chargers.
I shouldn’t have to break down all their additions this offseason, but Chicago is undoubtedly a better team.
Williams is the headline acquisition with the first overall pick. He enters an offense with Allen, Swift, DJ Moore and tight end Cole Kmet, a well-rounded skill group.
That said, there are two worries I have with this team.
The offensive line leaves much to be desired. According to PFF, they ranked in the bottom-third in both run and pass blocking last season.
Additionally, I wonder if their defense is highly rated based on quality performances against bad offenses late last season.
From Week 10 onward, the Bears ranked third in defensive EPA per play. However, the average offensive EPA per play of those eight opponents for the season was 18.1.
That might not matter this season with a last-place schedule, but I don’t want to pay -165 to find out.
Bears Over Under Wins, Live Odds
| Week Number | Win Total | Over Odds | Under Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Preseason | 8.5 | -165 | +140 |
| Week 2 | 9.5 | +105 | -125 |
| Week 3 | 8.5 | +120 | -145 |
| Week 4 | 7.5 | -120 | +100 |
Most Wins in Bears History
The Bears’ franchise record for wins in a single season is 15. They achieved this in 1985, later winning the Super Bowl that year.
Fewest Wins in Bears History
The Bears’ season with the lowest win total was 1969 when they finished 1-13.
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