Chiefs vs 49ers Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 7

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Oct 21, 2022, 8:33 AM
  • The Chiefs (4-2) are -2 point favorites vs the 49ers (3-3)
  • Total (Over/Under): 48.5 points
  • Watch the game on FOX

The Kansas City Chiefs (4-2) visit Levi’s Stadium to take on the San Francisco 49ers (3-3) on Oct. 23. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:25pm EDT in Santa Clara.

The Chiefs are betting favorites in Week 7, with the spread sitting at -2 (-110).

The Chiefs vs. 49ers Over/Under is 48.5 total points for the game.

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Chiefs vs. 49ers Odds, Spread, Over/Under Week 7

  Spread Total (O/U) Moneyline
Chiefs -2 -110 48.5 -110 -130
49ers +2 -110 48.5 -110 +105

Chiefs vs. 49ers Prediction for Week 7

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts the Chiefs will win this Week 7 game with 53.5% confidence.

Chiefs vs 49ers Spread Prediction for Week 7

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the 49ers will cover the spread this Week 7 with 61.0% confidence.

Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both the Chiefs and 49ers, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.


Best Chiefs Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Chiefs players for Week 7, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

 

  • Clyde Edwards-Helaire has hit the Carries Under in 8 of his last 10 games (+5.50 Units / 42% ROI)
  • Mecole Hardman has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 6 of his last 7 away games (+4.85 Units / 55% ROI)
  • Marquez Valdes-Scantling has hit the Receptions Over in 5 of his last 6 away games (+4.30 Units / 57% ROI)
  • Patrick Mahomes has hit the Passing Yards Under in 13 of his last 20 games (+4.25 Units / 17% ROI)
  • Mecole Hardman has hit the Receptions Under in 5 of his last 6 away games (+4.10 Units / 51% ROI)

 

Best 49ers Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for 49ers players for Week 7, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

 

  • Jimmy Garoppolo has hit the Completions Under in 13 of his last 17 games (+8.30 Units / 38% ROI)
  • Deebo Samuel has hit the Receptions Under in 14 of his last 20 games (+6.10 Units / 21% ROI)
  • Ray-Ray McCloud has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 5 of his last 6 games (+3.80 Units / 55% ROI)
  • Deebo Samuel has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 6 of his last 8 games at home (+3.75 Units / 40% ROI)
  • Eli Mitchell has hit the Carries Over in 7 of his last 10 games (+3.65 Units / 33% ROI)

 

Receiving Props: Total Receiving Yards for 49ers vs Chiefs

Player Name Over Under
JuJu Smith-Schuster 48.5 -120 48.5 -110
Jerick McKinnon 13.5 -110 13.5 -120
Clyde Edwards-Helaire 14.5 -115 14.5 -115
Mecole Hardman 27.5 -120 27.5 -110

Rushing Props: Total Rushing Yards for 49ers vs Chiefs

Player Name Over Under
Jeff Wilson Jr. 57.5 -115 57.5 -120
Clyde Edwards-Helaire 34.5 -115 34.5 -115

 

  • The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 9 of their last 10 games (+8.05 Units / 73% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Chiefs have covered the 1H Spread in 13 of their last 18 games (+7.40 Units / 37% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Chiefs have covered the 1Q Spread in 13 of their last 19 games (+7.00 Units / 33% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 12 of their last 19 games (+6.90 Units / 20% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the Moneyline in 15 of their last 19 games (+6.60 Units / 12% ROI)

 

 

  • The San Francisco 49ers have hit the Game Total Under in 12 of their last 14 games (+9.80 Units / 64% ROI)
  • The San Francisco 49ers have covered the 1H Spread in 13 of their last 18 games (+7.70 Units / 40% ROI)
  • The San Francisco 49ers have covered the Spread in 13 of their last 18 games (+7.65 Units / 39% ROI)
  • The San Francisco 49ers have hit the 1H Game Total Under in 9 of their last 12 games (+6.80 Units / 51% ROI)
  • The San Francisco 49ers have hit the Moneyline in their last 6 games at home (+6.60 Units / 36% ROI)

 

Chiefs Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Chiefs have gone 2-4 (-2.45 Units / -36.84% ROI).

  • Chiefs are 4-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.8 Units / 6.48% ROI
  • Chiefs are 3-3 when betting the Over for -0.3 Units / -4.55% ROI
  • Chiefs are 3-3 when betting the Under for -0.3 Units / ROI

49ers Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the 49ers have gone 3-3 (-0.3 Units / -4.55% ROI).

  • 49ers are 3-3 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.75 Units / -20.52% ROI
  • 49ers are 1-5 when betting the Over for -4.5 Units / -68.18% ROI
  • 49ers are 5-1 when betting the Under for +3.9 Units / 59.09% ROI

Kansas City Chiefs: Keys to the Game vs. the San Francisco 49ers

The Chiefs are 3-1 (.750) when sacking the QB less than 3 times this season — tied for 3rd-best in NFL; League Avg: .413.

The Chiefs are 8-5 (.615) when rushing less than 25 times since the 2021 season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: .281.

The Chiefs are 17-7 (.708) when rushing less than 25 times since the 2020 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .289.

The Chiefs are 2-3 (.400) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times since the 2021 season — tied for 4th-best in NFL; League Avg: .226.

San Francisco 49ers: Keys to the Game vs. the Kansas City Chiefs

The 49ers are undefeated (4-0) when committing less than 60 yards in penalties this season — tied for best in NFL; League Avg: .535.

The 49ers are 6-2 (.750) vs top 10 pass offenses since the 2021 season — tied for best in NFL; League Avg: .389.

The 49ers are undefeated (7-0) vs bottom 10 run offenses since the 2021 season — tied for best in NFL; League Avg: .531.

The 49ers are undefeated (9-0) when the opposing team converts less than 55% of its red zone chances into touchdowns since the 2021 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .542.

Additional Matchup Notes for Kansas City Chiefs vs. San Francisco 49ers

The 49ers have run successful plays on 52.3% of pass attempts this season — tied for second-best in NFL. Chiefs have allowed successful plays on 51.4% of pass attempts this season — fourth-worst in NFL.

The 49ers have an average drive start position from the 24.7 yard line since the 2021 season — tied for worst in NFL. The Chiefs have allowed an average drive start position from the 26.0 yard line since the 2021 season — tied for fifth-best in NFL.

The 49ers have gained at least 5 yards on 51.1% of first down plays this season — third-best in NFL. The Chiefs have allowed at least 5 yards on 48.8% of first down plays this season — fifth-worst in NFL.

Chiefs RBs have rushed for 10 or more yards on just 8.2% of 466 carries since the 2021 season — tied for third-worst in NFL. The 49ers have allowed 10+ yards on just 5.9% of carries to RBs since the 2021 season — best in NFL.

Chiefs RBs have rushed for 10 or more yards on just 7.6% of 132 carries this season — third-worst in NFL. The 49ers have allowed 10+ yards on just 3.7% of carries to RBs this season — best in NFL.

The Chiefs have a third down conversion rate of 51.5% in the first half since the 2021 season — best in NFL. The 49ers defense has allowed a third down conversion rate of 44.7% in the first half since the 2021 season — fourth-worst in NFL.

Kansas City Chiefs Offense: Important Stats for Week 7

The Chiefs have a third down conversion rate of 52% since the 2021 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 40%.

The Chiefs have thrown for 19 TDs this season — 2nd-most in NFL.

The Chiefs have run 62% of their plays in their opponent’s territory in the 3rd quarter this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 41%.

The Chiefs have a third down conversion rate of 64% against the blitz since the 2021 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 38%.

San Francisco 49ers Offense: Important Stats for Week 7

The 49ers have targeted RBs 6% of the time (14 Pass Attempts/220 plays) this season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 17%.

The 49ers have run 14% of their plays in their opponent’s territory in close and late situations this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 49%.

The 49ers have started 28 drives inside their own 20 yard line in the 4th quarter since the 2021 season — most in NFL.

The 49ers have targeted RBs 10% of the time (75 Pass Attempts/732 plays) since the 2021 season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 18%.

Kansas City Chiefs Defense: Important Stats for Week 7

The Chiefs defense has one interception and 18 TD passes allowed this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 1.8.

The Chiefs defense has intercepted one of 284 attempts this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 45.8.

The Chiefs defense has allowed 7 TD passes in close and late situations this season — most in NFL.

The Chiefs defense allowed successful plays on 54% of rush attempts in the 2nd half last season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 43%.

San Francisco 49ers Defense: Important Stats for Week 7

The 49ers defense has allowed 5.9 yards from scrimmage per touch (1,982 yards / 334 touches) this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 7.4.

The 49ers defense has allowed 330.3 yards from scrimmage per game this season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 408.6.

The 49ers defense allowed successful plays on 37% of rush attempts last season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 43%.

The 49ers defense has allowed successful plays on 32% of rush attempts in close and late situations since the 2021 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 43%.

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.