Chiefs vs Colts Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 3

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Sep 25, 2022, 10:43 AM
  • The Chiefs (2-0) are -5.5 point favorites vs the Colts (0-1)
  • Total (Over/Under): 51 points
  • Watch the game on CBS

The Kansas City Chiefs (2-0) visit Lucas Oil Stadium to take on the Indianapolis Colts (0-1) on Sep. 25. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EDT in Indianapolis.

The Chiefs are betting favorites in Week 3, with the spread sitting at -5.5 (-110).

The Chiefs vs. Colts Over/Under is 51 total points for the game.

Bet now on Colts vs Chiefs & all NFL games with BetMGM

Chiefs vs. Colts Odds, Spread, Over/Under Week 3

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Kansas City Chiefs-5.5 -11051 -110-250
Indianapolis Colts +5.5 -11051 -110+200

Chiefs vs. Colts Prediction for Week 3

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts the Chiefs will win this Week 3 game with 69.3% confidence.

Chiefs vs Colts Spread Prediction for Week 3

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Colts will cover the spread this Week 3 with 55.0% confidence.

Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both the Chiefs and Colts, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.


Best Chiefs Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Chiefs players for Week 3, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Patrick Mahomes has hit the Passing Yards Under in 14 of his last 20 games (+6.70 Units / 27% ROI)
  • Mecole Hardman has hit the Receptions Under in 11 of his last 15 games (+6.00 Units / 26% ROI)
  • Marquez Valdes-Scantling has hit the Receptions Over in his last 5 away games (+5.30 Units / 81% ROI)
  • Ronald Jones has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 6 of his last 7 away games (+4.80 Units / 56% ROI)
  • Patrick Mahomes has hit the Interceptions Over in 11 of his last 19 games (+4.60 Units / 24% ROI)
  • Best Colts Player Prop Best Bets Today

    And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Colts players for Week 3, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Matt Ryan has hit the TD Passes Under in 13 of his last 17 games (+8.05 Units / 29% ROI)
  • Jonathan Taylor has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 13 of his last 17 games (+7.85 Units / 37% ROI)
  • Nyheim Hines has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 9 of his last 12 games (+5.30 Units / 35% ROI)
  • Nyheim Hines has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 5 of his last 6 games at home (+3.85 Units / 57% ROI)
  • Jonathan Taylor has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 11 of his last 17 games (+3.80 Units / 19% ROI)
  • First Touchdown Scorer Bet for Colts vs Chiefs

    Player Name 1st TD Odds
    Jonathan Taylor +500
    Travis Kelce +650
    Clyde Edwards-Helaire +800
    JuJu Smith-Schuster +1100
    Michael Pittman +1200

    Anytime Touchdown Scorer Bet for Colts vs Chiefs

    Player Name Anytime TD Odds
    Jonathan Taylor -190
    Travis Kelce -150
    Clyde Edwards-Helaire -105
    JuJu Smith-Schuster +140
    Michael Pittman +160

    Receiving Props: Total Receiving Yards for Colts vs Chiefs

    Player Name Over Under
    Nyheim Hines 26.5 -115 26.5 -115
    Jerick McKinnon 15.5 -115 15.5 -110
    Marquez Valdes-Scantling 40.5 -115 40.5 -115
    Noah Gray 7.5 -120 7.5 -110
    Travis Kelce 71.5 -115 71.5 -115

    Rushing Props: Total Rushing Yards for Colts vs Chiefs

    Player Name Over Under
    Matt Ryan 2.5 -115 2.5 -115
    Clyde Edwards-Helaire 46.5 -115 46.5 -115
    Jerick McKinnon 14.5 -115 14.5 -115
    Jonathan Taylor 87.5 -115 87.5 -110
    Patrick Mahomes 11.5 -115 11.5 -115
  • The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 11 of their last 15 games (+9.40 Units / 32% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the Moneyline in 13 of their last 15 games (+7.80 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Chiefs have scored first in 14 of their last 18 games (+7.60 Units / 25% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Chiefs have covered the 1Q Spread in 11 of their last 15 games (+7.05 Units / 44% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 2H Moneyline in 7 of their last 8 away games (+6.60 Units / 38% ROI)
  • The Indianapolis Colts have covered the 1H Spread in 12 of their last 16 games (+7.55 Units / 42% ROI)
  • The Indianapolis Colts have hit the Game Total Under in their last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 91% ROI)
  • The Indianapolis Colts have hit the 1H Game Total Under in 6 of their last 7 games (+6.00 Units / 77% ROI)
  • The Indianapolis Colts have hit the Team Total Under in their last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 90% ROI)
  • The Indianapolis Colts have covered the 2Q Spread in 11 of their last 17 games (+4.65 Units / 25% ROI)
  • Chiefs Against the Spread (ATS) Record

    Against the spread this NFL season, the Chiefs have gone 1-1 (-0.1 Units / -4.55% ROI).

    • Chiefs are 2-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +2 Units / 43.48% ROI
    • Chiefs are 1-1 when betting the Over for -0.1 Units / -4.55% ROI
    • Chiefs are 1-1 when betting the Under for -0.1 Units / ROI

    Colts Against the Spread (ATS) Record

    Against the spread this NFL season, the Colts have gone 0-2 (-2.15 Units / -100% ROI).

    • Colts are 0-1 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.6 Units / -32.65% ROI
    • Colts are 0-2 when betting the Over for -2.2 Units / -100% ROI
    • Colts are 2-0 when betting the Under for +2 Units / 90.91% ROI

    Kansas City Chiefs: Keys to the Game vs. the Indianapolis Colts

    The Chiefs were 1-2 (.333) when rushing less than 20 times last season — tied for 3rd-best in NFL; League Avg: .121.

    The Chiefs are 2-2 (.500) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times since the 2021 season — tied for best in NFL; League Avg: .172.

    The Chiefs were 2-2 (.500) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times last season — tied for best in NFL; League Avg: .165.

    The Chiefs were undefeated (8-0) when allowing less than 22 points last season — tied for best in NFL; League Avg: .762.

    Indianapolis Colts: Keys to the Game vs. the Kansas City Chiefs

    The Colts were winless (0-2) when rushing less than 20 times last season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .121.

    The Colts are winless (0-3) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times since the 2021 season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .172.

    The Colts were 2-4 (.333) when making less than 3 explosive runs in a game last season — tied for 9th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .454.

    The Colts were 9-2 (.818) when rushing for 120 or more yards last season — tied for 8th-best in NFL; League Avg: .670.

    Additional Matchup Notes for Kansas City Chiefs vs. Indianapolis Colts

    The Colts have run successful plays on just 23.8% of pass attempts when their QB was under pressure since the 2021 season — fifth-worst in NFL. The Chiefs have pressured opposing QBs on 28.2% of passing plays since the 2021 season — fourth-best in NFL.

    Colts RBs have 48.7 receiving yards per game since the 2020 season — third-best in NFL. The Chiefs have averaged 51.1 receiving yards per game allowed to RBs since the 2020 season — worst in NFL.

    The Colts are averaging 5.6 yards per carry on first down since the 2021 season — best in NFL. The Chiefs have allowed 4.9 yards per carry on first down since the 2021 season — third-worst in NFL.

    The Chiefs have run successful plays on 58.1% of pass attempts this season — best in NFL. Colts have allowed successful plays on 53.7% of pass attempts this season — fifth-worst in NFL.

    The Chiefs have run successful plays on 53.9% of pass attempts since the 2021 season — best in NFL. Colts have allowed successful plays on 50.3% of pass attempts since the 2021 season — tied for second-worst in NFL.

    The Chiefs have run successful plays on 60.5% of pass attempts on their opponent’s side of the field this season — second-best in NFL. Colts have allowed successful plays on 60.0% of pass attempts on their own side of the field this season — third-worst in NFL.

    Kansas City Chiefs Offense: Important Stats for Week 3

    The Chiefs had a third down conversion rate of 71% against the blitz last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 39%.

    The Chiefs have a third down conversion rate of 69% against the blitz since the 2021 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 38%.

    The Chiefs have scored on 49% of their drives in the 1st quarter since the 2021 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 28%.

    The Chiefs converted first downs on 107 of 206 plays (52%) on 3rd down last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 40%.

    Indianapolis Colts Offense: Important Stats for Week 3

    The Colts did not record a TD in 11 drives in Week 2 — tied for worst Drives Per TD rate in NFL; League Avg: 4.8.

    The Colts have run successful plays on 22% of pass attempts in the 3rd quarter this season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: 48%.

    The Colts ran successful plays on 27% of plays in Week 2 — worst in NFL; League Avg: 43%.

    The Colts have scored on 17% of their drives this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 34%.

    Kansas City Chiefs Defense: Important Stats for Week 3

    The Chiefs defense allowed successful plays on 56% of rush attempts in the 4th quarter last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 42%.

    The Chiefs defense has pressured opposing QBs 32 times this season — most in NFL.

    The Chiefs defense has allowed 9.5 receptions per game (19/2) to RBs this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 4.9.

    The Chiefs defense sacked opposing QBs on just 5% of pass attempts (31/640) last season — 3rd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 6%.

    Indianapolis Colts Defense: Important Stats for Week 3

    The Colts defense has allowed successful plays on 8% of plays in the 4th quarter this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 42%.

    The Colts defense has not allowed a successful play on any pass attempt in the 4th quarter this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 44%.

    The Colts defense has not allowed a successful play on any pass attempt in close and late situations this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 45%.

    The Colts defense has allowed a Completion Pct of just 17% (1 completions/6 attempts) in close and late situations this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 60%.

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    Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

    Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.