- The Chiefs are -3 against the Ravens in Week 1.
- Kansas City defeated Baltimore in the 2024 AFC Championship.
- I predict the Baltimore Ravens are likely to cover, but offer good teaser potential.
Less than 50 days separates bettors from the NFL season. Below, bettors can find my Chiefs vs. Ravens prediction for Week 1’s opening game.
The Chiefs begin their 2024-25 campaign against the team they defeated in the AFC Championship last year. As road dogs in Baltimore, they captured a 17-10 victory.
This season sees both teams amongst the favorites in Super Bowl odds with Kansas City the preseason favorite to earn a third straight title.
Let’s take a look at the NFL betting lines for the Week 1 game along with my prediction.
Chiefs vs. Ravens Odds
- Kansas City Chiefs Moneyline: -155
- Baltimore Ravens Moneyline: +130
- Game Spread: Chiefs -3 (+100)
- Game Over/Under: 46.5 Points (-115/-105)
Chiefs vs. Ravens Prediction
I predict the Baltimore Ravens cover +2.5 points. However, I’m more comfortable using them in a two-team, six-point teaser.
The biggest question for Baltimore is whether they can establish and sustain a run game against a weak Kansas City run defense that ranked 28th in rush EPA per play last year.
Derrick Henry arrived in the offseason to replace Gus Edwards, but the offensive line underwent major changes.
Both John Simpson and Morgan Moses departed from Baltimore, which could hinder Baltimore’s ability to run the ball.
Plus, I have questions about Baltimore’s defense. While I still believe they’re an above-average unit, the departures of Jadeveon Clowney, Patrick Queen and Geno Stone hurt the Ravens.
In good news for the Ravens, this is a team that thrives as underdogs.
Head coach John Harbaugh is 46-31-3 ATS as an underdog while quarterback Lamar Jackson is 12-1 ATS as a dog.
Within that sample, Harbaugh is 64-15 against a six-point teaser in that spot while Jackson is a perfect 13-0 against a six-point teaser as an underdog.
At the same time, it’s worth noting the Ravens match one historically profitable betting system.
Since the 2005-06 season, road dogs sitting between 0 and +3 in Weeks 1-8 are 56.8% ATS.
While that system works best against favorites who missed the postseason the previous year — dogs improve to 61.3% ATS — dogs that made the playoffs are 60.6% ATS.
Facing a team that also made the playoffs? Those dogs are still 34-29-4 ATS (54%).
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