- Bears head coach Ben Johnson (+650) is the favorite to win Coach of the Year.
- My first prediction for the 2025 Coach of the Year is Packers head coach Matt LaFleur.
- A case for Titans head coach Brian Callahan (+3000) to win Coach of the Year.
Based on NFL odds from BetMGM, new Bears head coach Ben Johnson (+650) is the favorite to win NFL Coach of the Year.
Johnson inherits a Bears team with lofty expectations for 2025. After winning only five games last year, Chicago arrives in 2025 with 8.5 wins as their season win total.
The former Lions offensive coordinator leads a group of three coaches priced at +1000 or shorter. Next on the list are Mike Vrabel (+875) and Jim Harbaugh (+1000).
Let’s examine the full set of odds along with my Coach of the Year predictions.
NFL Coach of the Year Odds
| Name | Odds |
|---|---|
| Ben Johnson | +650 |
| Mike Vrabel | +875 |
| Jim Harbaugh | +1000 |
| Liam Coen | +1400 |
| Dave Canales | +1400 |
| Pete Carroll | +1400 |
| Sean Payton | +1500 |
| Aaron Glenn | +2000 |
| Dan Campbell | +2000 |
| Mike Macdonald | +2000 |
| Kyle Shanahan | +2200 |
| Dan Quinn | +2200 |
| Sean McVay | +2200 |
| Kellen Moore | +2500 |
| Raheem Morris | +2500 |
| Matt Lafleur | +2500 |
| Brian Schottenheimer | +2500 |
| Zac Taylor | +2500 |
| Shane Steichen | +2800 |
| DeMeco Ryans | +3000 |
| Jonathan Gannon | +3000 |
| Brian Daboll | +3000 |
| Mike McDaniel | +3000 |
| Brian Callahan | +3000 |
| Mike Tomlin | +3500 |
| Kevin O'Connell | +4000 |
| Todd Bowles | +4000 |
| John Harbaugh | +5000 |
| Sean McDermott | +5000 |
| Kevin Stefanski | +5000 |
| Andy Reid | +8000 |
| Nick Sirianni | +8000 |
NFL Coach of the Year: Predictions
Matt LaFleur (+2500) to win Coach of the Year
Based on Green Bay’s expected positive regression and their high ceiling in the conference, I predict Matt LaFleur (+2500) wins Coach of the Year.
While the Coach of the Year usually goes to a coach taking a bad team to new heights, the ceiling for Green Bay feels incredibly high.
It would not surprise me if the Packers went from an 11-win team in 2024 to a 14-win team in 2025.
Will that be enough to win Coach of the Year? History suggests it’s not an unlikely outcome.
In 2021, Mike Vrabel won Coach of the Year after leading a 12-win team, following a 11-win season in 2020.
Plus, the expectations for Green Bay must be factored into this bet.
Green Bay’s win total is set at 9.5 wins, with the Packers priced at +280 to win the NFC North and only -125 to make the playoffs.
If this was a team with a win total set a full win higher, I wouldn’t advocate for this bet. However, pair the expectations with the price and LaFleur is worth a wager at +2500.
Brian Callahan (+3000) to win Coach of the Year
Based on Tennessee’s easy schedule and their underlying defensive metrics from last season, I predict Brian Callahan (+3000) wins Coach of the Year.
I’m beginning to see a path for the Titans to surpass expectations in 2025.
They face the easiest schedule in the league as a positive regression candidate with a sneaky good defense from 2025.
Tennessee plays only four games against playoff teams next year, three of which come at home. Last year, they finished 3-14 but went 2-5 in games decided by a touchdown or less.
Four of those losses came within the division while playing the hardest schedule in the division and 13th-hardest in the league, per ftnfantasy.com.
What plagued the Titans last year was poor special teams play. Hidden in their season, however, is the fact that they ranked 17th in defensive DVOA and eighth in opponent yards per play.
If Cam Ward shines in front of a strong defense – they play only three games against teams 10th or better in offensive DVOA from 2024 – Callahan could garner buzz for this award.
Given the schedule, a seven-win improvement for the Titans isn’t out of the question. Accordingly, this price is worth a bet to me.
