- The Colts are an 8-point home underdog against the Lions.
- The Lions are 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS in their previous eight contests.
- My Colts vs. Lions prediction is for Indianapolis to cover the spread.
The Lions will go for a ninth straight win on Sunday in Indy against the Colts as big favorites.
Detroit earned its eighth straight win on Sunday in a 52-6 blowout of the Jaguars. After that win, Detroit finds itself as the new favorite in the Super Bowl 59 odds.
The Colts captured a surprise Week 11 victory against the Jets as four-point underdogs, ending a three-game losing streak. With the win, the Colts sit only a game outside the final playoff spot.
Bet on Colts vs. Lions and other NFL matchups with up-to-date NFL odds.
NFL Week 12 Odds: Colts vs. Lions
Colts vs. Lions Prediction
Based on the success of home underdogs against teams off a blowout win, my Colts vs. Lions prediction is the Colts Spread (+8, -110).
Time to say a prayer, hold our noses and back the Colts to keep this game respectable.
There’s a real chance the Lions break every betting system, but I’m happy to fade a team that’s going to be tied into every parlay, teaser and will dominate the spread ticket count.
Essentially, this is a bet on the Colts defense limiting Detroit’s high-powered offense.
For all of Indy’s issues this season, they’re 11th in expected points added per play and 13th in defensive success rate.
Just against the run, they’re 12th in both defensive rush EPA per play and rushing success rate, per rbsdm.com.
This is also a Detroit team that has struggled to cover big numbers away from home. Only twice in five road games has Detroit won by double digits with one coming due to a defensive score.
Comparatively, the Lions have covered this spread in three straight home games.
History also suggests this is a good spot to back the Colts.
Since 2003, home underdogs at +7 or higher against a favorite off a win by 14 or more points are 59.6% ATS.
Here’s the kicker: When that underdog has either won their last game or finds itself on a two-game losing streak, they jump to 38-11-1 ATS (77.6%).
Just when that team is on a one-game winning streak, they’re 20-6-1 ATS.
Grab the Colts so long as they remain at +7.5 or better in Week 12.
Betting Colts vs. Lions: NFL Public Betting
| Bets% (Spread) | Money% (Spread) | Bets% (ML) | Money% (ML) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lions | 72% | 69% | 65% | 78% |
| Colts | 28% | 31% | 35% | 22% |
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