Commanders vs Bengals Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 3

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Bengals player in an orange and black uniform is pointing.

(AP Photo/Jeff Dean)

BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Sep 18, 2024, 4:09 PM

The Bengals are -7.5 point favorites vs the Commanders
Total (Over/Under): 47 points
Watch this game on ABC

The Washington Commanders (1-1-0) visit Paycor Stadium to take on the Cincinnati Bengals (0-2-0) on Sep. 23. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:15pm EDT in Cincinnati, OH.

The Bengals are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -7.5 (-110).

The Commanders vs. Bengals Over/Under is 47 total points for the game.

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Commanders vs. Bengals Odds, Spread, Over/Under

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Commanders	+7.5 -110	47 -110	+280
Bengals	-7.5 -110	47 -110	-375

Commanders vs. Bengals Prediction

The winning team model predicts the Bengals will win this game with 70.0% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

Commanders vs Bengals Spread Prediction

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Bengals will cover the spread with 51.0% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Commanders players this playoff game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Commanders Player Prop Bets Today

Austin Ekeler has hit the Longest Rush Under in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 82% ROI)

Terry McLaurin has hit the Longest Reception Over in 7 of his last 8 away games (+5.80 Units / 61% ROI)

Brian Robinson has hit the Longest Rush Over in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 85% ROI)

Austin Ekeler has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 6 of his last 7 away games (+4.85 Units / 54% ROI)

Brian Robinson has hit the Receptions Over in 8 of his last 12 games (+4.35 Units / 33% ROI)

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Bengals players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Bengals Player Prop Best Bets Today

Mike Gesicki has hit the Longest Reception Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+7.75 Units / 62% ROI)

Ja’Marr Chase has hit the Receptions Under in 7 of his last 9 games at home (+4.40 Units / 34% ROI)

Jake Browning has hit the TD Passes Over in 5 of his last 7 games (+4.25 Units / 45% ROI)

Mike Gesicki has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 10 of his last 15 games (+3.85 Units / 21% ROI)

Zack Moss has hit the Longest Rush Under in 5 of his last 6 games (+3.75 Units / 50% ROI)

Commanders Best Bets:

The Washington Commanders have covered the 3Q Spread in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.95 Units / 34% ROI)

The Washington Commanders have hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 13 of their last 20 games (+4.90 Units / 21% ROI)

The Washington Commanders have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 11 of their last 17 games (+4.70 Units / 25% ROI)

The Washington Commanders have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 12 of their last 20 games (+4.10 Units / 19% ROI)

The Washington Commanders have hit the 2H Moneyline in 5 of their last 7 away games (+3.85 Units / 53% ROI)

Bengals Best Bets:

The Cincinnati Bengals have scored first in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+3.95 Units / 46% ROI)

The Cincinnati Bengals have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 11 of their last 17 games (+3.55 Units / 18% ROI)

The Cincinnati Bengals have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 12 of their last 20 games (+3.10 Units / 14% ROI)

The Cincinnati Bengals have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 6 of their last 9 games at home (+2.35 Units / 22% ROI)

The Cincinnati Bengals have hit the 2H Moneyline in 4 of their last 6 games (+1.90 Units / 24% ROI)

Commanders Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Commanders art 1-1 (-0.1 Units / -4.55% ROI).

Commanders are 1-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +0 Units / 0% ROI
Commanders are 1-1 when betting the Over for -0.1 Units / -4.55% ROI
Commanders are 1-1 when betting the Under for -0.1 Units / ROI

Bengals Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Bengals are 1-1 (-0.1 Units / -4.55% ROI).

Bengals are 0-2 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.8 Units / -100% ROI
Bengals are 1-1 when betting the Over for -0.1 Units / -4.55% ROI
Bengals are 1-1 when betting the Under for -0.1 Units / -4.55% ROI

Washington Commanders: Keys to the Game vs. the Cincinnati Bengals

The Commanders were 1-8 (.111) when playing in cold weather last season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .500.

The Commanders are 1-8 (.111) when playing in cold weather since the 2022 season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .500.

The Commanders are winless (0-9) when making less than 5 explosive passes in a game since the 2022 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .427.

The Commanders were winless (0-8) when making less than 5 explosive passes in a game last season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .426.

Cincinnati Bengals: Keys to the Game vs. the Washington Commanders

The Bengals are 7-3 (.700) when passing for 250 or more yards since the 2023 season — 10th-best in NFL. The Commanders have allowed 258.5 passing yards per game since the 2023 season — worst in NFL.

The Bengals were undefeated (5-0) when allowing less than 100 rushing yards last season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .664.

The Bengals are undefeated (5-0) when allowing less than 100 rushing yards since the 2022 season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .665.

The Bengals were 7-1 (.875) when allowing less than 22 points last season — T-6th-best in NFL; League Avg: .747.

Additional Matchup Notes for Washington Commanders vs. Cincinnati Bengals

The Bengals have run 57.8% offensive plays in on their opponent’s side of the field this season — 4th-best in NFL. The Commanders have allowed their opponents to run 62.7% of plays in their territory this season — worst in NFL.

The Bengals have thrown the ball 58.8% of the time since the 2023 season — highest in NFL. The Commanders have allowed 7.5 yards per dropback since the 2023 season — worst in NFL.

The Commanders have run successful plays on 77.8% of pass attempts on play action passes this season — best in NFL. The Bengals have pressured opposing QBs on 0% of pass attempts on play action passes this season — T-worst in NFL.

The Commanders have thrown the ball 58.1% of the time since the 2023 season — 2nd-highest in NFL. The Bengals have allowed 7.4 yards per dropback since the 2023 season — 2nd-worst in NFL.

The Commanders have thrown the ball 10 yards or less 81.1% of pass attempts this season — 3rd-highest in NFL. The Bengals have allowed just 4.0 yards per dropback on pass attempts between 1 and 10 yards this season — 4th-best in NFL.

Washington Commanders Offense: Important Stats

The Commanders threw the ball 57% of the time (267 Pass Attempts/465 plays) on 1st down last season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 45%.

The Commanders have run 26% of their plays in the red zone in the 2nd half this season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 15%.

The Commanders scored on 88% of their drives in Week 2 — best in NFL; League Avg: 39%.

The Commanders have faced a blitz 33% of the time on 3rd and short this season — T-3rd-highest in NFL; League Avg: 13%.

Cincinnati Bengals Offense: Important Stats

The Bengals have run successful plays on 0% of rush attempts in the 1st quarter this season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: 40%.

The Bengals averaged -0.85 epa per play against tight coverage last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: -0.52.

The Bengals have averaged -0.84 epa per play against tight coverage since the 2022 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: -0.53.

The Bengals have faced a blitz 50% of the time on 3rd and short this season — T-highest in NFL; League Avg: 13%.

Washington Commanders Defense: Important Stats

The Commanders defense has allowed scores on 53% of opponent drives in the 1st quarter since the 2022 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 29%.

The Commanders defense has allowed 45 TD passes since the 2022 season — most in NFL.

The Commanders defense have allowed 0.17 epa per play in the 1st half since the 2022 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: -0.00.

The Commanders defense allowed scores on 51% of opponent drives in the 1st quarter last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 29%.

Cincinnati Bengals Defense: Important Stats

The Bengals defense allowed 8.1 yards from scrimmage per touch (6,621 yards / 819 touches) last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 7.2.

27% of the plays run against the Bengals have been in the red zone in the 1st quarter this season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 11%.

The Bengals defense allowed 8 TDs on first drive of the game last season — most in NFL.

The Bengals defense has allowed a passer rating of just 49.1 against play action passes (9 Pass Attempts) this season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 92.6.

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