- The Buccaneers are -3 point favorites vs the Commanders
- Total (Over/Under): 43.5 points
- Watch this game on FOX
The Washington Commanders (0-0-0) visit Raymond James Stadium to take on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-0-0) on Sep. 8. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:25pm EDT in Tampa, FL.
The Buccaneers are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -3 (-115).
The Commanders vs. Buccaneers Over/Under is 43.5 total points for the game.
Bet now on Buccaneers vs Commanders & all NFL games with BetMGM
Commanders vs. Buccaneers Odds, Spread, Over/Under
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Commanders | +3 -105 | 43.5 -110 | +140 |
| Buccaneers | -3 -115 | 43.5 -110 | -165 |
Commanders vs. Buccaneers Prediction
The winning team model predicts the Buccaneers will win this game with 58.4% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
Commanders vs Buccaneers Spread Prediction
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Buccaneers will cover the spread with 55.1% confidence.
Bet now on Buccaneers vs Commanders and all NFL games with BetMGM
Best Commanders Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Commanders players this playoff game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Terry McLaurin has hit the Longest Reception Over in 8 of his last 9 away games (+6.80 Units / 63% ROI)
- Austin Ekeler has hit the Longest Rush Under in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 82% ROI)
- Austin Ekeler has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 6 away games (+6.00 Units / 77% ROI)
- Austin Ekeler has hit the Receptions Under in his last 6 away games (+6.00 Units / 72% ROI)
- Brian Robinson has hit the Longest Rush Over in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 85% ROI)
Best Buccaneers Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Buccaneers players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Baker Mayfield has hit the TD Passes Over in 10 of his last 13 games (+9.25 Units / 70% ROI)
- Rachaad White has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 13 of his last 18 games (+7.65 Units / 39% ROI)
- Chase McLaughlin has hit the Field Goals Over in 13 of his last 19 games (+7.50 Units / 37% ROI)
- Rachaad White has hit the Carries Over in 13 of his last 18 games (+7.40 Units / 36% ROI)
- Baker Mayfield has hit the Completions Over in his last 6 games (+6.05 Units / 93% ROI)
First Touchdown Scorer Bet for Buccaneers vs Commanders
| Player Name | 1st TD Odds |
|---|---|
| Rachaad White (TB) | +650 |
| Mike Evans (TB) | +650 |
Receiving Props: Total Receiving Yards for Buccaneers vs Commanders
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Cade Otton (TB) | 27.5 -110 | 27.5 -120 |
| Terry McLaurin (WAS) | 59.5 -115 | 59.5 -115 |
| Rachaad White (TB) | 20.5 -110 | 20.5 -120 |
| Brian Robinson Jr (WAS) | 8.5 -120 | 8.5 -110 |
| Zach Ertz (WAS) | 22.5 -115 | 22.5 -115 |
Rushing Props: Total Rushing Yards for Buccaneers vs Commanders
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Brian Robinson Jr (WAS) | 43.5 -120 | 43.5 -115 |
| Baker Mayfield (TB) | 7.5 -110 | 7.5 -120 |
| Austin Ekeler (WAS) | 24.5 -120 | 24.5 -110 |
| Rachaad White (TB) | 58.5 -115 | 58.5 -115 |
| Jayden Daniels (WAS) | 39.5 -110 | 39.5 -120 |
Commanders Best Bets:
- The Washington Commanders have hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 14 of their last 20 games (+6.85 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Washington Commanders have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 10 of their last 13 games (+6.80 Units / 47% ROI)
- The Washington Commanders have covered the 3Q Spread in 11 of their last 16 games (+5.65 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Washington Commanders have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 13 of their last 20 games (+5.10 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Washington Commanders have hit the 2H Moneyline in 6 of their last 9 away games (+4.10 Units / 44% ROI)
Buccaneers Best Bets:
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have scored last in 14 of their last 19 games (+9.45 Units / 45% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have covered the 1H Spread in 15 of their last 22 games (+7.25 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have covered the 2Q Spread in 9 of their last 12 games (+5.60 Units / 39% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have covered the Spread in 14 of their last 22 games (+5.35 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have hit the 1H Moneyline in 11 of their last 22 games (+5.10 Units / 19% ROI)
Commanders Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL preseason, the Commanders went 1-2 (-1.2 Units / -36.92% ROI).
- Commanders are 1-2 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.15 Units / -4.11% ROI
- Commanders are 1-2 when betting the Over for -1.2 Units / -36.36% ROI
- Commanders are 2-1 when betting the Under for +0.9 Units / ROI
Buccaneers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL preseason, the Buccaneers went 2-1 (+0.9 Units / 27.27% ROI).
- Buccaneers are 2-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +2 Units / 53.33% ROI
- Buccaneers are 1-2 when betting the Over for -1.2 Units / -36.36% ROI
- Buccaneers are 2-1 when betting the Under for +0.9 Units / 27.27% ROI
Washington Commanders: Keys to the Game vs. the Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Commanders were 1-8 (.111) when playing in cold weather last season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .500.
The Commanders are winless (0-9) after a road win since the 2022 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .459.
The Commanders were winless (0-4) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .500.
The Commanders were 1-7 (.125) at home last season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .558.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Keys to the Game vs. the Washington Commanders
The Buccaneers are winless (0-7) when allowing more than 5 yards per rush since the 2022 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .428.
The Buccaneers were winless (0-7) when rushing less than 25 times last season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .281.
The Buccaneers were 8-1 (.889) when rushing at least 4 yards in a play 10 or more times last season — best in NFL; League Avg: .586.
The Buccaneers were winless (0-7) when trailing at the end of the third quarter last season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .148.
Additional Matchup Notes for Washington Commanders vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Buccaneers have a third down conversion rate of just 11.5% on 3rd and 10+ YTG since the 2022 season — 3rd-worst in NFL. The Commanders defense has allowed a third down conversion rate of just 11.8% on 3rd and 10+ YTG since the 2022 season — T-best in NFL.
The Buccaneers have averaged -0.30 epa per play against tight coverage since the 2022 season — 2nd-best in NFL. The Commanders have allowed -0.39 epa per play with tight coverage since the 2022 season — T-5th-worst in NFL.
Buccaneers TEs had just 29.7 receiving yards per game last season — 3rd-worst in NFL. The Commanders allowed an average of just 43.7 receiving yards per game to TEs last season — 5th-best in NFL.
The Commanders were successful on just 35.8% of plays they have run on play action passes last season — worst in NFL. The Buccaneers allowed their opponents to be successful on just 42.7% of plays on play action passes last season — 5th-best in NFL.
The Commanders ran successful plays on just 40.0% of pass attempts on play action passes last season — worst in NFL. The Buccaneers allowed successful plays on just 45.2% of pass attempts on play action passes last season — 5th-best in NFL.
The Commanders were successful on just 30.0% of plays they have run against a stacked front in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — 3rd-worst in NFL. The Buccaneers allowed their opponents to be successful on just 27.7% of plays with a stacked front in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — 4th-best in NFL.
Washington Commanders Offense: Important Stats
The Commanders have run successful plays on 31% of pass attempts against a stacked front since the 2022 season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: 50%.
The Commanders ran successful plays on 17% of rush attempts in the 2nd half in Week 18 — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 39%.
The Commanders have run successful plays on 34% of rush attempts in the 1st quarter since the 2022 season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 43%.
The Commanders ran the ball on 33% of plays (354 carries/1,059 plays) last season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 41%.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Offense: Important Stats
The Buccaneers ran successful plays on 25% of rush attempts in the 3rd quarter last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 42%.
The Buccaneers ran successful plays on 33% of rush attempts last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 42%.
The Buccaneers ran successful plays on 32% of rush attempts against a base front last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 41%.
The Buccaneers ran 32% of their plays in the red zone in the 2nd half in Week 18 — best in NFL; League Avg: 11%.
Washington Commanders Defense: Important Stats
The Commanders defense allowed scores on 51% of opponent drives in the 1st quarter last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 29%.
The Commanders defense allowed 0.16 epa per play in the 1st half last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: -0.00.
The Commanders defense allowed 21 TDs that were 20+ yards last season — most in NFL.
The Commanders defense allowed 4 TD passes in Week 18 — T-most in NFL.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Defense: Important Stats
The Buccaneers defense allowed a passer rating of just 25.3 with a stacked front (16 Pass Attempts) last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 110.0.
The Buccaneers defense has allowed successful plays on 28% of rush attempts with a light front since the 2022 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 45%.
The Buccaneers defense allowed 2 of 10 (20%) first downs through the air (20%) in Week 18 — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 58%.
The Buccaneers defense allowed -0.16 epa per play with a stacked front last season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 0.01.
Looking to place a bet on this game with a First Bet Offer up to $1,500? Bet now on Buccaneers vs Commanders and all NFL games with BetMGM
Bet on NFL Odds at BetMGM
Take your football entertainment to the next level with NFL betting at the online sportsbook.
From futures like Chiefs Super Bowl odds, Bills playoff odds, and Lions NFC Championship odds to weekly odds like spreads, moneylines, and over/under totals, there’s something for everyone.
And with the best sportsbook promotions, you could land a welcome offer, sports betting Odds Boost, or a Parlay Boost! You can also check out NFL picks and predictions and updated Super Bowl predictions throughout the year.
Log in to your BetMGM account today — or sign up for a new account via the online sportsbook or BetMGM iOS app or BetMGM Android app — to start betting!