- The Buccaneers are -3 point favorites vs the Commanders
- Total (Over/Under): 43.5 points
- Watch this game on FOX
The Washington Commanders (0-0-0) visit Raymond James Stadium to take on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-0-0) on Sep. 8. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:25pm EDT in Tampa, FL.
The Buccaneers are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -3 (-115).
The Commanders vs. Buccaneers Over/Under is 43.5 total points for the game.
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Commanders vs. Buccaneers Odds, Spread, Over/Under
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Commanders | +3 -105 | 43.5 -110 | +140 |
| Buccaneers | -3 -115 | 43.5 -110 | -165 |
Commanders vs. Buccaneers Prediction
The winning team model predicts the Buccaneers will win this game with 58.4% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
Commanders vs Buccaneers Spread Prediction
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Buccaneers will cover the spread with 55.1% confidence.
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Best Commanders Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Commanders players this playoff game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Terry McLaurin has hit the Longest Reception Over in 8 of his last 9 away games (+6.80 Units / 63% ROI)
- Austin Ekeler has hit the Longest Rush Under in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 82% ROI)
- Austin Ekeler has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 6 away games (+6.00 Units / 77% ROI)
- Austin Ekeler has hit the Receptions Under in his last 6 away games (+6.00 Units / 72% ROI)
- Brian Robinson has hit the Longest Rush Over in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 85% ROI)
Best Buccaneers Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Buccaneers players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Baker Mayfield has hit the TD Passes Over in 10 of his last 13 games (+9.25 Units / 70% ROI)
- Rachaad White has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 13 of his last 18 games (+7.65 Units / 39% ROI)
- Chase McLaughlin has hit the Field Goals Over in 13 of his last 19 games (+7.50 Units / 37% ROI)
- Rachaad White has hit the Carries Over in 13 of his last 18 games (+7.40 Units / 36% ROI)
- Baker Mayfield has hit the Completions Over in his last 6 games (+6.05 Units / 93% ROI)
First Touchdown Scorer Bet for Buccaneers vs Commanders
| Player Name | 1st TD Odds |
|---|---|
| Rachaad White (TB) | +650 |
| Mike Evans (TB) | +650 |
Receiving Props: Total Receiving Yards for Buccaneers vs Commanders
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Cade Otton (TB) | 27.5 -110 | 27.5 -120 |
| Terry McLaurin (WAS) | 59.5 -115 | 59.5 -115 |
| Rachaad White (TB) | 20.5 -110 | 20.5 -120 |
| Brian Robinson Jr (WAS) | 8.5 -120 | 8.5 -110 |
| Zach Ertz (WAS) | 22.5 -115 | 22.5 -115 |
Rushing Props: Total Rushing Yards for Buccaneers vs Commanders
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Brian Robinson Jr (WAS) | 43.5 -120 | 43.5 -115 |
| Baker Mayfield (TB) | 7.5 -110 | 7.5 -120 |
| Austin Ekeler (WAS) | 24.5 -120 | 24.5 -110 |
| Rachaad White (TB) | 58.5 -115 | 58.5 -115 |
| Jayden Daniels (WAS) | 39.5 -110 | 39.5 -120 |
Commanders Best Bets:
- The Washington Commanders have hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 14 of their last 20 games (+6.85 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Washington Commanders have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 10 of their last 13 games (+6.80 Units / 47% ROI)
- The Washington Commanders have covered the 3Q Spread in 11 of their last 16 games (+5.65 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Washington Commanders have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 13 of their last 20 games (+5.10 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Washington Commanders have hit the 2H Moneyline in 6 of their last 9 away games (+4.10 Units / 44% ROI)
Buccaneers Best Bets:
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have scored last in 14 of their last 19 games (+9.45 Units / 45% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have covered the 1H Spread in 15 of their last 22 games (+7.25 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have covered the 2Q Spread in 9 of their last 12 games (+5.60 Units / 39% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have covered the Spread in 14 of their last 22 games (+5.35 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have hit the 1H Moneyline in 11 of their last 22 games (+5.10 Units / 19% ROI)
Commanders Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL preseason, the Commanders went 1-2 (-1.2 Units / -36.92% ROI).
- Commanders are 1-2 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.15 Units / -4.11% ROI
- Commanders are 1-2 when betting the Over for -1.2 Units / -36.36% ROI
- Commanders are 2-1 when betting the Under for +0.9 Units / ROI
Buccaneers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL preseason, the Buccaneers went 2-1 (+0.9 Units / 27.27% ROI).
- Buccaneers are 2-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +2 Units / 53.33% ROI
- Buccaneers are 1-2 when betting the Over for -1.2 Units / -36.36% ROI
- Buccaneers are 2-1 when betting the Under for +0.9 Units / 27.27% ROI
Washington Commanders: Keys to the Game vs. the Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Commanders were 1-8 (.111) when playing in cold weather last season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .500.
The Commanders are winless (0-9) after a road win since the 2022 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .459.
The Commanders were winless (0-4) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .500.
The Commanders were 1-7 (.125) at home last season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .558.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Keys to the Game vs. the Washington Commanders
The Buccaneers are winless (0-7) when allowing more than 5 yards per rush since the 2022 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .428.
The Buccaneers were winless (0-7) when rushing less than 25 times last season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .281.
The Buccaneers were 8-1 (.889) when rushing at least 4 yards in a play 10 or more times last season — best in NFL; League Avg: .586.
The Buccaneers were winless (0-7) when trailing at the end of the third quarter last season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .148.
Additional Matchup Notes for Washington Commanders vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Buccaneers have a third down conversion rate of just 11.5% on 3rd and 10+ YTG since the 2022 season — 3rd-worst in NFL. The Commanders defense has allowed a third down conversion rate of just 11.8% on 3rd and 10+ YTG since the 2022 season — T-best in NFL.
The Buccaneers have averaged -0.30 epa per play against tight coverage since the 2022 season — 2nd-best in NFL. The Commanders have allowed -0.39 epa per play with tight coverage since the 2022 season — T-5th-worst in NFL.
Buccaneers TEs had just 29.7 receiving yards per game last season — 3rd-worst in NFL. The Commanders allowed an average of just 43.7 receiving yards per game to TEs last season — 5th-best in NFL.
The Commanders were successful on just 35.8% of plays they have run on play action passes last season — worst in NFL. The Buccaneers allowed their opponents to be successful on just 42.7% of plays on play action passes last season — 5th-best in NFL.
The Commanders ran successful plays on just 40.0% of pass attempts on play action passes last season — worst in NFL. The Buccaneers allowed successful plays on just 45.2% of pass attempts on play action passes last season — 5th-best in NFL.
The Commanders were successful on just 30.0% of plays they have run against a stacked front in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — 3rd-worst in NFL. The Buccaneers allowed their opponents to be successful on just 27.7% of plays with a stacked front in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — 4th-best in NFL.
Washington Commanders Offense: Important Stats
The Commanders have run successful plays on 31% of pass attempts against a stacked front since the 2022 season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: 50%.
The Commanders ran successful plays on 17% of rush attempts in the 2nd half in Week 18 — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 39%.
The Commanders have run successful plays on 34% of rush attempts in the 1st quarter since the 2022 season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 43%.
The Commanders ran the ball on 33% of plays (354 carries/1,059 plays) last season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 41%.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Offense: Important Stats
The Buccaneers ran successful plays on 25% of rush attempts in the 3rd quarter last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 42%.
The Buccaneers ran successful plays on 33% of rush attempts last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 42%.
The Buccaneers ran successful plays on 32% of rush attempts against a base front last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 41%.
The Buccaneers ran 32% of their plays in the red zone in the 2nd half in Week 18 — best in NFL; League Avg: 11%.
Washington Commanders Defense: Important Stats
The Commanders defense allowed scores on 51% of opponent drives in the 1st quarter last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 29%.
The Commanders defense allowed 0.16 epa per play in the 1st half last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: -0.00.
The Commanders defense allowed 21 TDs that were 20+ yards last season — most in NFL.
The Commanders defense allowed 4 TD passes in Week 18 — T-most in NFL.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Defense: Important Stats
The Buccaneers defense allowed a passer rating of just 25.3 with a stacked front (16 Pass Attempts) last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 110.0.
The Buccaneers defense has allowed successful plays on 28% of rush attempts with a light front since the 2022 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 45%.
The Buccaneers defense allowed 2 of 10 (20%) first downs through the air (20%) in Week 18 — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 58%.
The Buccaneers defense allowed -0.16 epa per play with a stacked front last season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 0.01.
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