Cowboys vs Giants Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 4

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Giants player number 8 holding a NFL game ball.

(AP Photo/Michael Ainsworth)

BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Sep 27, 2024, 12:04 PM

The Cowboys are -6 point favorites vs the Giants
Total (Over/Under): 45 points
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The Dallas Cowboys (1-2-0) visit MetLife Stadium to take on the New York Giants (1-2-0) on Sep. 26. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:15pm EDT in East Rutherford, NJ.

The – are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at ().

The Cowboys vs. Giants Over/Under is total points for the game.

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Cowboys vs. Giants Odds, Spread, Over/Under

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Cowboys
Giants

Cowboys vs. Giants Prediction

The winning team model predicts the Cowboys will win this game with 74.5% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

Cowboys vs Giants Spread Prediction

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Cowboys will cover the spread with 58.0% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Cowboys players this playoff game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Cowboys Player Prop Bets Today

Dak Prescott has hit the Longest Rush Under in 8 of his last 10 games (+5.60 Units / 45% ROI)
Ezekiel Elliott has hit the Longest Rush Under in 9 of his last 12 games (+5.35 Units / 36% ROI)
Rico Dowdle has hit the Carries Under in 6 of his last 7 games (+4.85 Units / 55% ROI)
Brandin Cooks has hit the Longest Reception Under in 6 of his last 7 away games (+4.70 Units / 53% ROI)
Dak Prescott has hit the Passing Yards Over in 11 of his last 17 games (+4.60 Units / 24% ROI)

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Giants players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Giants Player Prop Best Bets Today

Devin Singletary has hit the Receptions Over in 7 of his last 8 games at home (+6.90 Units / 67% ROI)
Wan’Dale Robinson has hit the Receptions Over in 12 of his last 17 games (+6.90 Units / 35% ROI)
Devin Singletary has hit the Longest Rush Over in 9 of his last 11 games (+6.75 Units / 54% ROI)
Tommy DeVito has hit the Interceptions Under in his last 5 games (+6.00 Units / 120% ROI)
Darius Slayton has hit the Receptions Over in 9 of his last 15 games (+4.25 Units / 26% ROI)

Cowboys Best Bets:

The Dallas Cowboys have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 13 of their last 20 games (+6.10 Units / 27% ROI)
The Dallas Cowboys have covered the 4Q Spread in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.05 Units / 29% ROI)
The Dallas Cowboys have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 11 of their last 17 games (+5.60 Units / 29% ROI)
The Dallas Cowboys have covered the 1Q Spread in 13 of their last 20 games (+5.15 Units / 20% ROI)
The Dallas Cowboys have hit the 1H Moneyline in 6 of their last 10 away games (+4.55 Units / 29% ROI)

Giants Best Bets:

The New York Giants have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 9 of their last 17 games (+8.85 Units / 51% ROI)
The New York Giants have covered the 2Q Spread in 12 of their last 17 games (+5.90 Units / 29% ROI)
The New York Giants have hit the 2H Moneyline in 5 of their last 10 games (+5.70 Units / 57% ROI)
The New York Giants have scored last in 6 of their last 8 games (+5.65 Units / 71% ROI)
The New York Giants have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 11 of their last 17 games (+4.30 Units / 22% ROI)

Cowboys Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Cowboys art ( Units / ROI).

Cowboys are 1-2 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.7 Units / -56.84% ROI
Cowboys are 3-0 when betting the Over for +3 Units / 90.91% ROI
Cowboys are 0-3 when betting the Under for -3.3 Units / ROI

Giants Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Giants are ( Units / ROI).

Giants are 1-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.3 Units / 9.68% ROI
Giants are 0-3 when betting the Over for -3.3 Units / -100% ROI
Giants are 3-0 when betting the Under for +3 Units / 90.91% ROI

Dallas Cowboys: Keys to the Game vs. the New York Giants

The Cowboys are 7-1 (.875) when rushing for 120 or more yards since the 2023 season — 4th-best in NFL. The Giants have allowed an average of 132.8 rushing yards per game since the 2023 season — 4th-worst in NFL.

The Cowboys were undefeated (4-0) when within 7 points entering the 4th quarter last season — best in NFL; League Avg: .500.

The Cowboys are 11-1 (.917) when within 7 points entering the 4th quarter since the 2022 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .498.

The Cowboys are undefeated (4-0) when within 7 points entering the 4th quarter since the 2022 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .500.

New York Giants: Keys to the Game vs. the Dallas Cowboys

The Giants were 3-6 (.333) when forcing 2 or more turnovers last season — T-2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .707.

The Giants are 2-8 (.200) when throwing at least 1 interception since the 2023 season — 8th-worst in NFL. The Cowboys have intercepted 20 passes since the 2023 season — T-5th-most in NFL.

The Giants were 1-5 (.167) when allowing 250 or more passing yards last season — T-3rd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .414.

The Giants are 3-7 (.300) when forcing 2 or more turnovers since the 2022 season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .710.

Additional Matchup Notes for Dallas Cowboys vs. New York Giants

The Giants have run successful plays on just 34.5% of pass attempts against a heavy rush since the 2023 season — 3rd-worst in NFL. The Cowboys have allowed successful plays on just 25.9% of pass attempts with a heavy rush since the 2023 season — 2nd-best in NFL.

The Giants have been successful on just 27.0% of plays they have ran against a heavy rush since the 2023 season — 2nd-worst in NFL. The Cowboys have allowed their opponents to be successful on just 25.9% of plays with a heavy rush since the 2023 season — 4th-best in NFL.

The Giants have averaged just -0.22 epa per play against a light front since the 2023 season — 4th-worst in NFL. The Cowboys have allowed just -0.14 epa per play with a light front since the 2023 season — T-5th-best in NFL.

Cowboys RBs have averaged 5.2 touches per game in the red zone since the 2023 season — T-4th-highest in NFL. The Giants have allowed 15 rushing touchdowns in the Red Zone to RBs since the 2023 season — T-3rd-most in NFL.

Cowboys WRs have 302 receptions in 20 games (15.1 per game) since the 2023 season — T-best in NFL. The Giants have allowed 13.7 receptions per game to WRs since the 2023 season — 5th-worst in NFL.

Dallas Cowboys Offense: Important Stats

The Cowboys scored on 49% of their drives last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 35%.

The Cowboys converted first downs on 25 of 60 plays (42%) when their QB was scrambling last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 23%.

The Cowboys ran 66% of their plays in their opponent’s territory in the 4th quarter last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 50%.

The Cowboys had 6 receptions for 20+ yards in Week 3 — T-most in NFL.

New York Giants Offense: Important Stats

The Giants averaged -0.26 epa per play against a stacked front last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 0.01.

The Giants ran successful plays on 26% of pass attempts against a stacked front last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 50%.

The Giants were sacked on 14% of pass attempts (85/603) last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 7%.

The Giants have run successful plays on 28% of pass attempts against a stacked front since the 2022 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 50%.

Dallas Cowboys Defense: Important Stats

The Cowboys defense has allowed 8 rushing TDs this season — most in NFL.

The Cowboys defense has allowed a passer rating of just 62.3 with a light front (326 Pass Attempts) since the 2022 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 84.1.

The Cowboys defense has allowed 7 rushing TDs in the red zone this season — most in NFL.

The Cowboys defense has allowed a passer rating of just 63.4 with a light front (136 Pass Attempts) since the 2022 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 83.3.

New York Giants Defense: Important Stats

The Giants defense has allowed successful plays on 100% of rush attempts against play action passes since the 2022 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 50%.

The Giants defense blitzed on 36% of plays in Week 3 — 2nd-highest in NFL; League Avg: 17%.

The Giants defense allowed successful plays on 38% of pass attempts open coverage in Week 3 — best in NFL; League Avg: 63%.

The Giants defense allowed 6.8 yards per dropback (1,053 yards/156 attempts) when targeted at a depth of 1-5 yards last season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: 5.5.

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