Cowboys vs Vikings Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 11

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Nov 17, 2022, 1:45 PM
  • The Cowboys (6-3) are -1 point favorites vs the Vikings (8-1)
  • Total (Over/Under): 47.5 points
  • Watch the game on CBS

The Dallas Cowboys (7-3) visit U.S. Bank Stadium to take on the Minnesota Vikings (8-2) on Nov. 20. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:25pm EST in Minneapolis.

The are betting favorites in Week 11, with the spread sitting at ().

The Cowboys vs. Vikings Over/Under is total points for the game.

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Cowboys vs. Vikings Odds, Spread, Over/Under Week 11

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Cowboys
Vikings

Cowboys vs. Vikings Prediction for Week 11

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts the Cowboys will win this Week 11 game with 53.5% confidence.

Cowboys vs Vikings Spread Prediction for Week 11

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Vikings will cover the spread this Week 11 with 54.0% confidence.

Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both the Cowboys and Vikings, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.


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Best Cowboys Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Cowboys players for Week 11, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Ezekiel Elliott has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 12 of his last 15 games (+8.25 Units / 43% ROI)
  • Ezekiel Elliott has hit the Receptions Under in 11 of his last 14 games (+6.50 Units / 33% ROI)
  • Tony Pollard has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last 6 away games (+6.00 Units / 86% ROI)
  • Dak Prescott has hit the Pass Attempts Over in 9 of his last 12 games (+5.75 Units / 43% ROI)
  • Dalton Schultz has hit the Receptions Over in 10 of his last 15 games (+4.15 Units / 23% ROI)

Best Vikings Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Vikings players for Week 11, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Alexander Mattison has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 6 of his last 7 games (+4.80 Units / 62% ROI)
  • Dalvin Cook has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 6 of his last 7 games at home (+4.80 Units / 60% ROI)
  • Irv Smith has hit the Receptions Over in his last 4 games (+4.45 Units / 102% ROI)
  • Justin Jefferson has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 11 of his last 17 games (+4.15 Units / 21% ROI)
  • Alexander Mattison has hit the Receptions Under in his last 4 games (+4.00 Units / 50% ROI)
  • The Dallas Cowboys have hit the 2H Moneyline in 14 of their last 18 games (+10.15 Units / 33% ROI)
  • The Dallas Cowboys have hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 11 of their last 14 games (+7.50 Units / 46% ROI)
  • The Dallas Cowboys have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 11 of their last 18 games (+7.50 Units / 30% ROI)
  • The Dallas Cowboys have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 6 of their last 8 away games (+6.45 Units / 52% ROI)
  • The Dallas Cowboys have covered the 4Q Spread in 9 of their last 12 games (+5.95 Units / 43% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Vikings have covered the 4Q Spread in their last 10 games (+10.35 Units / 95% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Vikings have hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 10 games (+9.30 Units / 49% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Vikings have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 9 of their last 10 games (+9.15 Units / 70% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Vikings have hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 12 of their last 15 games (+8.60 Units / 49% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Vikings have hit the Game Total Over in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.50 Units / 35% ROI)

Cowboys Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Cowboys have gone 6-3 (+2.7 Units / 27.55% ROI).

  • Cowboys are 6-3 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.65 Units / 29.06% ROI
  • Cowboys are 4-5 when betting the Over for -1.5 Units / -15.15% ROI
  • Cowboys are 5-4 when betting the Under for +0.6 Units / ROI

Vikings Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Vikings have gone 4-4 (-0.5 Units / -4.98% ROI).

  • Vikings are 8-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +8.3 Units / 48.12% ROI
  • Vikings are 5-4 when betting the Over for +0.6 Units / 6.06% ROI
  • Vikings are 4-5 when betting the Under for -1.5 Units / -15.15% ROI

Dallas Cowboys: Keys to the Game vs. the Minnesota Vikings

The Cowboys are undefeated (5-0) when committing less than 60 yards in penalties this season — tied for best in NFL; League Avg: .520.

The Cowboys are undefeated (8-0) vs bottom 10 pass offenses since the 2021 season — tied for best in NFL; League Avg: .567.

The Cowboys are undefeated (5-0) when not throwing an interception this season — tied for best in NFL; League Avg: .641.

The Cowboys are 7-1 (.875) vs top 10 run defenses since the 2021 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .430.

Minnesota Vikings: Keys to the Game vs. the Dallas Cowboys

The Vikings are undefeated (7-0) when allowing less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities this season — tied for best in NFL; League Avg: .585.

The Vikings are undefeated (4-0) at home this season — best in NFL; League Avg: .559.

The Vikings are undefeated (4-0) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team this season — tied for best in NFL; League Avg: .495.

The Vikings are undefeated (4-0) when sacking the QB less than 3 times this season — tied for best in NFL; League Avg: .410.

Additional Matchup Notes for Dallas Cowboys vs. Minnesota Vikings

The Vikings have run successful plays on just 15.3% of pass attempts when their QB was under pressure this season — third-worst in NFL. The Cowboys have pressured opposing QBs on 31.0% of passing plays this season — best in NFL.

The Vikings have thrown the ball 64.6% of the time in the red zone this season — third-highest in NFL. The Cowboys have allowed a completion rate of 73.1% when defending in the red zone this season — worst in NFL.

The Vikings threw the ball 63.3% of the time last week — fourth-highest in NFL. The Cowboys allowed 10.4 yards per dropback in Week 10 — tied for worst in NFL.

The Cowboys have run just 10.9% offensive plays in the red zone this season — tied for fourth-worst in NFL. Vikings has allowed their opponent to run just 10.8% of plays in the red zone this season — fifth-best in NFL.

The Cowboys have a third down conversion rate of just 23.3% in the fourth quarter this season — worst in NFL. The Vikings defense has allowed a third down conversion rate of just 29.2% in the 4th quarter this season — fifth-best in NFL.

The Cowboys have scored 4.8 points per Red Zone drive this season — tied for third-best in NFL. The Vikings have allowed 4.7 points per Red Zone drive this season — fifth-worst in NFL.

Dallas Cowboys Offense: Important Stats for Week 11

The Cowboys have run successful plays on 41% of pass attempts on passes when their QB has been pressured since the 2021 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 30%.

The Cowboys converted first downs on just 17 of 95 plays (18%) on 3rd and long last season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 25%.

The Cowboys have converted first downs on 45 of 181 plays (25%) on plays when their QB has been pressured since the 2021 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 18%.

The Cowboys ran successful plays on 51% of plays in the 1st quarter last season — 3rd-best in NFL; League Avg: 43%.

Minnesota Vikings Offense: Important Stats for Week 11

The Vikings have started 15 drives inside opposing territory this season — 2nd-most in NFL.

The Vikings have an average drive start position from the 37.1 yard line in the 3rd quarter this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 25.2.

The Vikings have run successful plays on 33% of pass attempts in the 3rd quarter this season — 3rd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 48%.

The Vikings have been flagged 17 times on offense this season — 2nd-fewest in NFL.

Dallas Cowboys Defense: Important Stats for Week 11

The Cowboys defense has forced 12 fumbles this season — tied for most in NFL.

The Cowboys defense averaged 1.5 interceptions per game (26/17) last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 0.8.

The Cowboys defense has averaged 1.3 interceptions per game (33/26) since the 2021 season — tied for best in NFL; League Avg: 0.8.

Only 4% of the plays run against the Cowboys have been in the red zone in the 3rd quarter this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 13%.

Minnesota Vikings Defense: Important Stats for Week 11

The Vikings defense has allowed 202.7 yards from scrimmage per game to WRs since the 2021 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 160.0.

The Vikings defense allowed 200.7 yards from scrimmage per game to WRs last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 160.3.

The Vikings defense tackled opponents for a loss on just 29 of 468 rushing attempts (6% TFL%) last season. — worst in NFL; League Avg: 11%.

The Vikings defense has allowed 237.3 yards from scrimmage per game to WRs since Week 7 — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 156.1.

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.