Cowboys Over Under Wins, 2025 NFL Win Totals

For the 2025 NFL season, the Cowboys’ win total sits at 7.5 wins at the BetMGM online sportsbook. 

Dallas endured a difficult campaign in 2024, winning only seven games and missing the playoffs entirely. After the season, Dallas and head coach Mike McCarthy parted ways. 

Offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer takes over the head coach post for 2025, with Dallas’ win total dropping by three wins. 

Before last season, Dallas cleared its win total three years in a row. 

Here’s a look at the NFL odds for Dallas’s 2025 win total and my Cowboys win total prediction: 

Cowboys Win Total Odds

The Cowboys’ season win total is set at 7.5 games. 

Oddsmakers expect the over to be the more likely outcome. Currently, Dallas is -135 to win eight or more games, an implied probability of 57.4%. 

Meanwhile, the odds for them to finish with seven or fewer wins are +110, an implied probability of 47.6%. 

Here are the 2025 NFL win totals for all NFC East teams:

• Philadelphia Eagles: 11.5 Wins
• Washington Commanders: 9.5 Wins
• Dallas Cowboys: 7.5 Wins
• New York Giants: 5.5 Wins

Cowboys Win Total Prediction 2025

Dallas Cowboys Over 7.5 Wins (-135)

Based on a presumed improvement on Dallas’ injury issues and the expected regression of their opponents, I predict the Cowboys finish Over 7.5 Wins (-135). 

BET: Cowboys Over 7.5 Wins @ -155

BET: Cowboys Under 7.5 Wins @ +130  

A lot of bettors will (rightfully) focus on Dak Prescott’s injury issues as the prominent issue for Dallas in 2024. 

Prescott missed nine games in 2024, including both matchups against the Eagles. 

But I maintain the belief Dallas regressed in 2024 due to an injured defense that played a brutal schedule. 

Dallas dropped from fifth in defensive DVOA in 2023 to 24th in 2025. Helping to explain that falloff: Dallas lost more adjusted games to injury on defense than all but eight teams. 

Also not helping their cause in 2024 was an extremely difficult schedule of offenses. Last season, the Cowboys faced the seventh-hardest set of offenses. 

Before last season, the Cowboys rated out a top five defense by defensive DVOA in three straight seasons, per ftnfantasy.com. 

If it’s assumed the Cowboys deploy a healthier defense in 2025, it should mitigate another difficult schedule. 

Based on Dallas’ 2025 opponents’ offensive DVOA ratings last season, the Cowboys are slated to face the 10th-hardest set of opposing offenses. 

Plus, oddsmakers are telling bettors they expect the Cowboys face several teams bound to regress. 

Dallas’ 2025 schedule features teams that combined for 161 wins in 2024. Those teams cumulatively feature win totals of 147.5. 

That delta (+13.5) is tied for the second-largest across the entire league. 

Additionally, Dallas’ schedule features teams that won 161 games on 151.2 expected wins. That delta (+9.8) ranks eighth in the league. 

Further factoring into my bullishness on the Cowboys is the distribution of their difficult games. 

While the Cowboys face an above-average schedule difficulty, most of it comes at home. Of the 10 games they face against playoff teams last year, six will be in Dallas. 

Generally, Prescott produces better results at home. In his career, the Mississippi State product owns a 43-18 record at home compared to 33-28 away from home. 

As a result, I’ll buy low on the Cowboys and back Schottenheimer to clear the win total in his first season.

Most Wins in Cowboys History

The Cowboys have won 13 games three times in franchise history. The first time was in 1992, and the most recent was in 2016.

Fewest Wins in Cowboys History

The Cowboys’ lowest win total in franchise history is zero (0-11-1) in their inaugural season in 1960.

In 1989, the Cowboys won one game, followed by the best run in franchise history from 1990 to 1996.