- The Bills are -6 point favorites vs the Dolphins
- Total (Over/Under): 49.5 points
- Watch this game on CBS
The Miami Dolphins (2-5-0) visit Highmark Stadium to take on the Buffalo Bills (6-2-0) on Nov. 3. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EDT in Orchard Park, NY.
The Bills are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -6 (-110).
The Dolphins vs. Bills Over/Under is 49.5 total points for the game.
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Dolphins vs. Bills Odds, Spread, Over/Under
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Dolphins | +6 -110 | 49.5 -110 | +220 |
| Bills | -6 -110 | 49.5 -110 | -275 |
Dolphins vs. Bills Prediction
The winning team model predicts the Bills will win this game with 70.0% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
Dolphins vs Bills Spread Prediction
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Bills will cover the spread with 69.0% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Dolphins players this playoff game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Dolphins Player Prop Bets Today
- Braxton Berrios has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 10 of his last 11 games (+8.75 Units / 66% ROI)
- Durham Smythe has hit the Receptions Over in his last 8 games (+8.55 Units / 83% ROI)
- Tua Tagovailoa has hit the TD Passes Under in 10 of his last 13 games (+6.70 Units / 38% ROI)
- Durham Smythe has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 7 of his last 9 games (+5.05 Units / 50% ROI)
- Braxton Berrios has hit the Longest Reception Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 84% ROI)
And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Bills players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Bills Player Prop Best Bets Today
- Khalil Shakir has hit the Receptions Over in 12 of his last 18 games (+6.40 Units / 31% ROI)
- Khalil Shakir has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 12 of his last 18 games (+5.30 Units / 26% ROI)
- James Cook has hit the Longest Reception Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 79% ROI)
- Curtis Samuel has hit the Receptions Under in 9 of his last 14 games (+4.75 Units / 27% ROI)
- Ray Davis has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 6 of his last 7 games (+4.70 Units / 58% ROI)
First Touchdown Scorer Bet for Bills vs Dolphins
| Player Name | 1st TD Odds |
|---|---|
| James Cook (Buf) | +500 |
| Josh Allen (Buf) | +650 |
Anytime Touchdown Scorer Bet for Bills vs Dolphins
| Player Name | Anytime TD Odds |
|---|---|
| James Cook (Buf) | -160 |
| Josh Allen (Buf) | +110 |
| De'Von Achane (MIA) | +125 |
Receiving Props: Total Receiving Yards for Bills vs Dolphins
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Tyreek Hill (MIA) | 76.5 -115 | 76.5 -115 |
| James Cook (BUF) | 14.5 -125 | 14.5 -105 |
| Raheem Mostert (MIA) | 5.5 -110 | 5.5 -120 |
| Dalton Kincaid (BUF) | 40.5 -110 | 40.5 -120 |
| Jaylen Waddle (MIA) | 51.5 -115 | 51.5 -115 |
Rushing Props: Total Rushing Yards for Bills vs Dolphins
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| James Cook (BUF) | 67.5 -115 | 67.5 -120 |
| Tua Tagovailoa (MIA) | 5.5 -125 | 5.5 -105 |
| Raheem Mostert (MIA) | 31.5 -115 | 31.5 -115 |
| Josh Allen (BUF) | 28.5 -120 | 28.5 -110 |
| Ray Davis (BUF) | 17.5 -120 | 17.5 -110 |
Dolphins Best Bets:
- The Miami Dolphins have hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 11 of their last 16 games (+5.15 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Miami Dolphins have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 10 of their last 16 games (+2.80 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Miami Dolphins have covered the 2Q Spread in 5 of their last 7 away games (+2.40 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Miami Dolphins have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 9 of their last 16 games (+1.00 Units / 5% ROI)
- The Miami Dolphins have covered the 3Q Spread in 9 of their last 16 games (+0.95 Units / 5% ROI)
Bills Best Bets:
- The Buffalo Bills have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 15 of their last 19 games (+11.65 Units / 52% ROI)
- The Buffalo Bills have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 11 of their last 19 games (+7.15 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Buffalo Bills have covered the 3Q Spread in 13 of their last 19 games (+6.70 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Buffalo Bills have hit the Team Total Over in 7 of their last 9 games at home (+5.05 Units / 49% ROI)
- The Buffalo Bills have hit the Game Total Over in 8 of their last 11 games at home (+4.70 Units / 39% ROI)
Dolphins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Dolphins art 1-6 (-5.8 Units / -72.05% ROI).
- Dolphins are 2-5 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.15 Units / -50% ROI
- Dolphins are 2-5 when betting the Over for -3.5 Units / -45.45% ROI
- Dolphins are 5-2 when betting the Under for +2.8 Units / ROI
Bills Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Bills are 5-3 (+1.8 Units / 20.69% ROI).
- Bills are 6-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.2 Units / 26.75% ROI
- Bills are 4-4 when betting the Over for -0.5 Units / -5.62% ROI
- Bills are 4-4 when betting the Under for -0.4 Units / -4.6% ROI
Miami Dolphins: Keys to the Game vs. the Buffalo Bills
The Dolphins are winless (0-3) when the opposing team commits less than 60 yards in penalties this season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .491.
The Dolphins were undefeated (7-0) when allowing less than 5 explosive passes last season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .574.
The Dolphins are 1-4 (.200) when converting less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities this season — 7th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .445.
The Dolphins were undefeated (4-0) when allowing less than 30% of third down conversion opportunities last season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .654.
Buffalo Bills: Keys to the Game vs. the Miami Dolphins
The Bills were 3-1 (.750) when not forcing a turnover last season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .265.
The Bills are 10-1 (.909) at home since the 2023 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .539.
The Bills were winless (0-4) when rushing for less than 100 yards last season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .336.
The Bills are 3-1 (.750) when not forcing a turnover since the 2023 season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .270.
Additional Matchup Notes for Miami Dolphins vs. Buffalo Bills
Bills QBs have been 10 sacked this season — fewest in NFL. The Dolphins have sacked the quarterback 9 times this season — T-2nd-fewest in NFL.
Bills RBs have rushed for 10 or more yards on 13.5% of 170 carries this season — 3rd-best in NFL. The Dolphins have allowed 10+ yards on 14.0% of carries to RBs this season — T-4th-worst in NFL.
Bills RBs have gained 934 yards on 98 receptions (9.5 YPR) since the 2023 season — 2nd-best in NFL. The Dolphins have allowed 8.4 Yards Per Reception to RBs since the 2023 season — 3rd-worst in NFL.
The Dolphins have averaged just -0.18 epa per play against a light rush since the 2023 season — T-5th-worst in NFL. The Bills have allowed just -0.73 epa per play with a light rush since the 2023 season — best in NFL.
The Dolphins have scored on 26.9% of their drives this season — 3rd-worst in NFL. The Bills defense has allowed scores on 29.8% of opponent drives this season — 5th-best in NFL.
The Dolphins have scored on 26.3% of their drives in the second half this season — 3rd-worst in NFL. The Bills defense has allowed scores on 16.7% of opponent drives in the second half this season — best in NFL.
Miami Dolphins Offense: Important Stats
The Dolphins have turned the ball over on downs 13 times this season — T-most in NFL.
The Dolphins have converted fourth downs on just 6 of 20 plays (30%) in short yardage situations since the 2023 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 64%.
The Dolphins had 19 TDs that were 20+ yards last season — most in NFL.
The Dolphins are averaging 8.7 drives per TD this season — T-worst Drives Per TD rate in NFL; League Avg: 4.7.
Buffalo Bills Offense: Important Stats
The Bills went three and out on 12% of their drives last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 22%.
The Bills went three and out on 10% of their drives in the 2nd half last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 20%.
The Bills have converted fourth downs on 8 of 8 plays (100%) this season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: 54%.
The Bills ran successful plays on 55% of rush attempts in the 1st half last season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 43%.
Miami Dolphins Defense: Important Stats
The Dolphins defense has not allowed a third down conversion with a heavy rush since the 2023 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 33%.
The Dolphins defense have allowed -0.55 epa per play on contested throws this season — best in NFL; League Avg: -0.07.
The Dolphins defense has allowed a third down conversion rate of 20% when blitzing since the 2023 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 37%.
The Dolphins defense have allowed -0.34 epa per play on first drive of the game this season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 0.02.
Buffalo Bills Defense: Important Stats
The Bills defense have allowed -0.73 epa per play with a light rush since the 2023 season — best in NFL; League Avg: -0.01.
The Bills defense has allowed successful plays on 8% of pass attempts with a light rush since the 2023 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 42%.
The Bills defense have allowed -1.02 epa per play with tight coverage this season — best in NFL; League Avg: -0.39.
The Bills defense has allowed scores on 12% of opponent drives in the 4th quarter this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 35%.
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More NFL Betting Predictions:
- Anytime & First Touchdown Scorer Predictions
- Receiving Yards Prop Predictions
- Rushing Yards Prop Predictions
- Passing Yards Prop Predictions
- Receptions Made Prop Predictions
- Rushing Attempts Prop Predictions
- Passing Touchdowns Prop Predictions
- QB Interception Prop Predictions
- Field Goals Made Prop Predictions
- NFL Betting Previews: Every Game
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