Dolphins vs Rams Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 10

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Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford drops back to pass during an NFL football game against the Seattle Seahawks, Sunday, Sept. 10, 2023, in Seattle. The Rams won 30-13.

(Stephen Brashear/AP Photo)

BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Nov 06, 2024, 2:03 PM

The Rams are -1 point favorites vs the Dolphins
Total (Over/Under): 50 points
Watch this game on ESPN | ESPD

The Miami Dolphins (2-6-0) visit SoFi Stadium to take on the Los Angeles Rams (4-4-0) on Nov. 11. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:15pm EST in Inglewood, CA.

The Rams are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -1 (-110).

The Dolphins vs. Rams Over/Under is 50 total points for the game.

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Dolphins vs. Rams Odds, Spread, Over/Under

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Dolphins	+1 -110	50 -110	+100
Rams	-1 -110	50 -110	-120

Dolphins vs. Rams Prediction

The winning team model predicts the Rams will win this game with 65.0% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

Dolphins vs Rams Spread Prediction

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Rams will cover the spread with 62.2% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Dolphins players this playoff game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Dolphins Player Prop Bets Today

Braxton Berrios has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+7.75 Units / 64% ROI)
Durham Smythe has hit the Receptions Over in his last 7 games (+7.55 Units / 81% ROI)
Tyreek Hill has hit the Receptions Under in 11 of his last 16 games (+5.05 Units / 24% ROI)
Tua Tagovailoa has hit the Passing Yards Under in his last 5 away games (+5.00 Units / 80% ROI)
Odell Beckham Jr. has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 5 away games (+5.00 Units / 79% ROI)

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Rams players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Rams Player Prop Best Bets Today

Kyren Williams has hit the Carries Over in 12 of his last 14 games (+9.70 Units / 62% ROI)
Matthew Stafford has hit the Completions Over in 11 of his last 15 games (+6.70 Units / 39% ROI)
Matthew Stafford has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 9 of his last 11 games (+6.65 Units / 42% ROI)
Tyler Higbee has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 89% ROI)
Kyren Williams has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 6 of his last 7 games at home (+4.85 Units / 60% ROI)

Dolphins Best Bets:

The Miami Dolphins have hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 11 of their last 16 games (+5.50 Units / 31% ROI)
The Miami Dolphins have covered the 2Q Spread in 6 of their last 7 away games (+4.85 Units / 57% ROI)
The Miami Dolphins have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 3 of their last 7 away games (+2.45 Units / 23% ROI)
The Miami Dolphins have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 4 of their last 7 away games (+1.40 Units / 15% ROI)
The Miami Dolphins have covered the 1Q Spread in 5 of their last 8 away games (+1.40 Units / 14% ROI)

Rams Best Bets:

The Los Angeles Rams have hit the Moneyline in 13 of their last 19 games (+11.10 Units / 39% ROI)
The Los Angeles Rams have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 7 of their last 8 games at home (+7.68 Units / 68% ROI)
The Los Angeles Rams have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 12 of their last 16 games (+7.55 Units / 39% ROI)
The Los Angeles Rams have covered the 2Q Spread in 7 of their last 8 games at home (+5.90 Units / 65% ROI)
The Los Angeles Rams have covered the 1H Spread in 7 of their last 9 games at home (+4.75 Units / 47% ROI)

Dolphins Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Dolphins art 2-6 (-4.8 Units / -52.46% ROI).

Dolphins are 2-6 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.15 Units / -54.42% ROI
Dolphins are 3-5 when betting the Over for -2.5 Units / -28.41% ROI
Dolphins are 5-3 when betting the Under for +1.7 Units / ROI

Rams Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Rams are 3-5 (-2.45 Units / -28% ROI).

Rams are 4-4 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.4 Units / 12.96% ROI
Rams are 4-4 when betting the Over for -0.45 Units / -5.08% ROI
Rams are 4-4 when betting the Under for -0.4 Units / -4.57% ROI

Miami Dolphins: Keys to the Game vs. the Los Angeles Rams

The Dolphins were 3-1 (.750) when not forcing a turnover last season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .265.

The Dolphins were undefeated (7-0) when allowing less than 5 explosive passes last season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .574.

The Dolphins are winless (0-4) when the opposing team commits less than 60 yards in penalties this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .492.

The Dolphins were 8-1 (.889) when passing for more than 250 yards last season — 3rd-best in NFL; League Avg: .586.

Los Angeles Rams: Keys to the Game vs. the Miami Dolphins

The Rams are 4-1 (.800) when not losing a fumble this season — T-5th-best in NFL; League Avg: .572.

The Rams were 3-1 (.750) when allowing less than 5 explosive passes last season — T-6th-best in NFL; League Avg: .574.

The Rams were 9-6 (.600) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team last season — T-9th-best in NFL; League Avg: .500.

The Rams were 6-1 (.857) when leading at the end of first quarter last season — 9th-best in NFL; League Avg: .737.

Additional Matchup Notes for Miami Dolphins vs. Los Angeles Rams

The Rams have averaged just -0.32 epa per play against a heavy rush since the 2023 season — 4th-worst in NFL. The Dolphins have allowed just -0.49 epa per play with a heavy rush since the 2023 season — 2nd-best in NFL.

The Dolphins have been successful on just 33.3% of plays they have ran against a heavy rush since the 2023 season — T-3rd-worst in NFL. The Rams have allowed their opponents to be successful on just 23.3% of plays with a heavy rush since the 2023 season — T-best in NFL.

Miami Dolphins Offense: Important Stats

The Dolphins had 19 TDs that were 20+ yards last season — most in NFL.

The Dolphins ran successful plays on 36% of rush attempts against a base rush last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 57%.

The Dolphins have scored 9 TDs from their own territory since the 2023 season — most in NFL.

The Dolphins have converted fourth downs on just 6 of 20 plays (30%) in short yardage situations since the 2023 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 64%.

Los Angeles Rams Offense: Important Stats

The Rams ran no plays in their opponent’s territory in the 4th quarter in Week 9 — worst in NFL; League Avg: 53%.

The Rams have run successful plays on 83% of plays against a light rush this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 43%.

The Rams have run successful plays on 83% of pass attempts against a light rush this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 45%.

The Rams have targeted WRs 69% of the time (594 Pass Attempts/860 plays) since the 2023 season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 57%.

Miami Dolphins Defense: Important Stats

The Dolphins defense has not allowed a third down conversion with a heavy rush since the 2023 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 32%.

The Dolphins defense allowed scores on 75% of opponent drives in Week 9 — worst in NFL; League Avg: 36%.

The Dolphins defense have allowed -0.75 epa per play with a heavy rush this season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: -0.07.

The Dolphins defense has allowed 2.2 yards from scrimmage per touch (37 yards / 17 touches) on 3rd and short this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 5.4.

Los Angeles Rams Defense: Important Stats

The Rams defense have allowed -1.16 epa per play with a heavy rush this season — best in NFL; League Avg: -0.07.

The Rams defense has allowed a passer rating of just 2.8 with a heavy rush (9 Pass Attempts) this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 103.9.

The Rams defense have allowed 0.71 epa per play open coverage this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 0.39.

The Rams defense has allowed a Completion Pct of just 44% (45 completions/103 attempts) on 3rd and long since the 2023 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 60%.

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