- The Dolphins are a 2.5-point home favorite against the 49ers.
- The 49ers have won 10 straight games when playing with a rest advantage.
- My Dolphins vs. 49ers prediction is the San Francisco Spread.
Two teams desperate to keep their playoff hopes alive meet Sunday in Miami, with the Dolphins hosting the 49ers.
Miami fell 20-12 as road dogs in Houston on Sunday, dashing their wild card hopes. At 6-8, the Dolphins can more than likely only secure the seventh seed in the AFC.
San Francisco finds itself in an equally dire situation. A 12-6 loss last Thursday to the Rams dropped the Niners to 6-8 as well, with San Francisco occupying the basement of the NFC.
Bet on Dolphins vs. 49ers and other NFL matchups with up-to-date NFL odds.
NFL Week 16 Odds: Dolphins vs. 49ers
Dolphins vs. 49ers Prediction
Based on the 49ers’ rest advantage and Mike McDaniel’s weak record against good teams, my Dolphins vs. 49ers prediction is the 49ers Spread (+2.5, -110).
This line shocked me when the opening Week 16 numbers dropped. Surely the well-rested 49ers would close a favorite against the Dolphins…right?
San Francisco has captured 10 straight games with a net rest edge over their opponent. Their defense is also FINALLY getting healthy enough to limit a strong Miami defense.
Also worth noting is that Miami could operate without Jaylen Waddle, who exited in Houston with an injury.
If Waddle doesn’t play, I question how Miami breaks down a San Francisco defense that looked very good against a powerful Rams unit on TNF.
Dolphins head coach Mike McDaniel, historically struggles to cover against decent teams.
McDaniel excels against teams with a sub-40% win percentage. In 20 games against such opponents, he’s 14-6 ATS.
But against teams with a winning percentage north of 41%, McDaniel falls to 7-18 ATS, including 2-5 at home and 1-7 as a market favorite.
On Sunday, McDaniel faces former boss Kyle Shanahan, who is 57% ATS as a market dog in his career, including 12-3 against a team off a loss by at least six points.
San Francisco also matches a historically profitable betting system in this spot.
Road dogs in games 3-15 are 70.5% ATS, assuming three factors:
- The underdog is on a one- or three-game losing streak
- The favorite is on a one-game losing streak
- The favorite’s win percentage falls between 30% and 57%
When that game occurs in contests 13-15, the dog improves to 72.2% ATS (13-5), including 5-1 at +3 or shorter.
Back the visitors so long as they remain under a field goal.
Betting Dolphins vs. 49ers: NFL Public Betting
Check back on Friday for Dolphins vs. 49ers public betting data and insights.
