Falcons vs Panthers Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 6

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Carolina Panthers quarterback Bryce Young passes against the New Orleans Saints during the first half of an NFL football game Monday, Sept. 18, 2023, in Charlotte, N.C.

(Rusty Jones/AP Photo)

BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Oct 09, 2024, 12:09 PM

The Falcons are -6 point favorites vs the Panthers
Total (Over/Under): 47 points
Watch this game on FOX

The Atlanta Falcons (3-2-0) visit Bank of America Stadium to take on the Carolina Panthers (1-4-0) on Oct. 13. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:25pm EDT in Charlotte, NC.

The Falcons are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -6 (-110).

The Falcons vs. Panthers Over/Under is 47 total points for the game.

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Falcons vs. Panthers Odds, Spread, Over/Under

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Falcons	-6 -110	47 -115	-275
Panthers	+6 -110	47 -105	+220

Falcons vs. Panthers Prediction

The winning team model predicts the Falcons will win this game with 63.6% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

Falcons vs Panthers Spread Prediction

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Falcons will cover the spread with 62.0% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Falcons players this playoff game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Falcons Player Prop Bets Today

Drake London has hit the Receptions Over in 12 of his last 17 games (+6.85 Units / 34% ROI)
Kyle Pitts has hit the Longest Reception Over in 10 of his last 13 games (+6.55 Units / 43% ROI)
Tyler Allgeier has hit the Longest Rush Under in his last 6 away games (+6.00 Units / 79% ROI)
Kirk Cousins has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 7 of his last 8 games (+5.70 Units / 56% ROI)
Ray-Ray McCloud has hit the Receptions Over in 6 of his last 7 games (+5.35 Units / 61% ROI)

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Panthers players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Panthers Player Prop Best Bets Today

Bryce Young has hit the TD Passes Under in 11 of his last 13 games (+11.60 Units / 67% ROI)
Bryce Young has hit the Passing Yards Under in 12 of his last 15 games (+8.10 Units / 41% ROI)
Diontae Johnson has hit the Longest Reception Over in 7 of his last 8 games (+5.80 Units / 63% ROI)
Adam Thielen has hit the Longest Reception Under in 8 of his last 10 games (+5.65 Units / 47% ROI)
Chuba Hubbard has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 12 of his last 18 games (+5.20 Units / 25% ROI)

Falcons Best Bets:

The Atlanta Falcons have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 13 of their last 21 games (+5.15 Units / 22% ROI)
The Atlanta Falcons have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 11 of their last 18 games (+4.55 Units / 22% ROI)
The Atlanta Falcons have hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 11 of their last 18 games (+2.35 Units / 11% ROI)
The Atlanta Falcons have covered the 1H Spread in 6 of their last 10 away games (+1.70 Units / 15% ROI)
The Atlanta Falcons have hit the 2H Game Total Over in 4 of their last 6 away games (+1.60 Units / 24% ROI)

Panthers Best Bets:

The Carolina Panthers have covered the 3Q Spread in 14 of their last 18 games (+8.75 Units / 36% ROI)
The Carolina Panthers have hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 13 of their last 18 games (+7.15 Units / 32% ROI)
The Carolina Panthers have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 6 of their last 8 games at home (+4.00 Units / 44% ROI)
The Carolina Panthers have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 6 of their last 18 games (+3.70 Units / 21% ROI)
The Carolina Panthers have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 6 of their last 8 games at home (+3.55 Units / 37% ROI)

Falcons Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Falcons art 2-3 (-1.4 Units / -25% ROI).

Falcons are 3-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.15 Units / 16.91% ROI
Falcons are 2-3 when betting the Over for -1.3 Units / -23.64% ROI
Falcons are 3-2 when betting the Under for +0.8 Units / ROI

Panthers Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Panthers are 1-4 (-3.4 Units / -61.82% ROI).

Panthers are 1-4 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.9 Units / -38% ROI
Panthers are 4-1 when betting the Over for +2.9 Units / 52.73% ROI
Panthers are 1-4 when betting the Under for -3.4 Units / -61.82% ROI

Atlanta Falcons: Keys to the Game vs. the Carolina Panthers

The Falcons were 1-5 (.167) when the opposing team converts 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns last season — T-2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .440.

The Falcons were 3-5 (.375) when sacking the QB 3 or more times last season — T-4th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .650.

The Falcons are 2-6 (.250) when losing at least one fumble since the 2023 season — T-8th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .391.

The Falcons were 2-8 (.200) when intercepting no passes last season — 8th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .348.

Carolina Panthers: Keys to the Game vs. the Atlanta Falcons

The Panthers were winless (0-4) when sacking the QB 3 or more times last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .650.

The Panthers are 1-18 (.053) when allowing 10 or more rushes of four or more yards since the 2023 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .413.

The Panthers are 3-19 (.136) since the 2023 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .500.

The Panthers were 1-10 (.091) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .500.

Additional Matchup Notes for Atlanta Falcons vs. Carolina Panthers

The Panthers have run successful plays on 51.6% of rush attempts against a base front this season — 3rd-best in NFL. The Falcons have allowed successful plays on 49.0% of rush attempts with a base front this season — 3rd-worst in NFL.

The Panthers have run successful plays on 50.0% of rush attempts this season — 5th-best in NFL. The Falcons have allowed successful plays on 50.9% of rush attempts this season — 2nd-worst in NFL.

The Panthers have run successful plays on 63.0% of rush attempts against a light front since the 2023 season — best in NFL. The Falcons have allowed successful plays on 59.3% of rush attempts with a light front since the 2023 season — 2nd-worst in NFL.

The Falcons have averaged 0.54 epa per play against a heavy rush since the 2023 season — best in NFL. The Panthers have allowed 0.27 epa per play with a heavy rush since the 2023 season — worst in NFL.

The Falcons threw the ball 72.8% of the time last week — 2nd-highest in NFL. The Panthers allowed 10.2 yards per dropback last week — 2nd-worst in NFL.

The Falcons have been successful on 53.5% of plays they have ran against a heavy rush since the 2023 season — 3rd-best in NFL. The Panthers have allowed their opponents to be successful on 51.9% of plays with a heavy rush since the 2023 season — 4th-worst in NFL.

Atlanta Falcons Offense: Important Stats

The Falcons targeted WRs 39% of the time (209 Pass Attempts/530 plays) last season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 57%.

The Falcons committed 6 turnovers in the red zone last season — most in NFL.

The Falcons had 7 receptions for 20+ yards in Week 5 — most in NFL.

The Falcons targeted TEs 33% of the time (174 Pass Attempts/530 plays) last season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 20%.

Carolina Panthers Offense: Important Stats

The Panthers have run successful plays on 13% of plays against a stacked front this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 49%.

The Panthers have a third down conversion rate of 86% on motion plays this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 42%.

The Panthers have scored on 50% of their drives in close and late situations since the 2023 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 17%.

The Panthers scored on 50% of their drives in close and late situations last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 17%.

Atlanta Falcons Defense: Important Stats

The Falcons defense has allowed scores on 64% of opponent drives in the 3rd quarter this season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: 31%.

27% of the plays run against the Falcons have been in the red zone in the 2nd half this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 15%.

21% of the plays run against the Falcons have been in the red zone this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 14%.

The Falcons defense has allowed a passer rating of 125.9 with a light rush (42 Pass Attempts) since the 2023 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 84.0.

Carolina Panthers Defense: Important Stats

The Panthers defense have allowed 6 TDs that were 20+ yards this season — T-most in NFL.

50% of the plays ran against the Panthers were in the red zone in the 4th quarter in Week 5 — worst in NFL; League Avg: 16%.

The Panthers defense allowed 3 rushing TDs in Week 5 — T-most in NFL.

The Panthers defense allowed an average of 2.4 yards after contact per carry (422 carries) to RBs last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 1.9.

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