- I expect D.J. Reed will prove to be a critical signing for the Detroit Lions.
- Why Drew Dahlman brings an instant upgrade to the Bears' offensive line.
- The New England Patriots' defensive signing flying under the radar.
While NFL free agency hasn’t officially ended, a bulk of marquee moves have already come to fruition.
Stars are on the move – Davante Adams to the Rams, Joey Bosa to the Bills – but I’m here to focus on the signings flying under the radar.
Think of these moves as the “Zach Baun to the Eagles” of the previous year. It’s the signings that, in a year, could prove especially meaningful to their respective teams.
In tandem with these deals, be sure to check out the latest NFL odds for each team’s futures prices.
NFL Free Agency: 3 Underrated Signings
D.J. Reed, Detroit Lions
Cornerback usually proves a volatile position year-over-year, but Reed offers an upgrade at the position.
Carlton Davis exited the Lions defense in favor of the Patriots. Per overthecap.com, the Patriots handed Davis a three-year, $54 million deal with $34.5 million guaranteed.
Subsequently, Detroit signed Reed to a three-year, $48 million deal with $32 million guaranteed.
Just from these players’ 2024 performances, Reed appears to be a slight downgrade. Davis ranked 37th amongst corners with a 72.1 coverage grade while Reed finished 48th at 70.1, per PFF.
But historically, Reed owns the production edge over Davis. Across seven seasons, Reed posted an average PFF defensive grade of 73.8 while Davis recorded an average grade of 67.4.
Another advantage with Reed comes with his ability to stay healthy. Over the previous three seasons, Reed featured in 3,008 snaps while Davis partook in 2,422.
While I’m still questioning how Detroit clears their win total this season – I already bet Under 10.5 Wins (-110) – Reed gives the Lions a chance to maintain their defensive quality.
Drew Dahlman, Chicago Bears
Obvious to anyone observing the Bears last year was that improvement was needed along the offensive line.
The Bears made three meaningful acquisitions – Dahlman joins trade arrivals Joe Thuney and Jonah Jackson – but it seems like Dahlman’s signing flies under the radar.
Last year, Dahlman ranked fifth amongst all centers in PFF’s offensive grades. In 2023, Dahlman ranked fourth in offensive grades, including fourth in run blocking.
That represents a stark upgrade over previous Bears center Coleman Shelton. Last year, Shelton ranked 12 spots lower in PFF’s offensive grades and 14 spots lower in run blocking.
In 2023, then Bears center Lucas Patrick finished 40 spots lower than Dahlman in offensive grades.
If anything, the Dahlman signing brings stability to Chicago for a three-year period.
Despite the improvement via free agency, I still have questions about how to approach the Bears from a futures standpoint.
They play in arguably the toughest division in football. For Chicago to clear their win total, a four-win improvement is needed year over year.
While regression is expected for Chicago a year after finishing 7-10 by expected record, I’m debating if I want to get involved with this market.
Robert Spillane, New England Patriots
New England held loads of cap room to work with this offseason. The result was a number of signings for new head coach Mike Vrabel.
Stefon Diggs and Milton Williams headline the arrivals, but Spillane offers an under-the-radar signing at linebacker.
Last year, Spillane ranked eighth in PFF’s rush defense grades and fifth in tackling. Amongst players that featured in at least 630 snaps: third and fourth
Vrabel inherits a Patriots defense that ranked 28th in rush defense DVOA last year, per ftnfantasy.com.
Spillane offers instant assistance to that ranking at a relatively cheap price: New England signed the linebacker to a three-year, $33 million deal.
While it renders Spillane the 10th-highest paid linebacker by average annual value, it’s a massive upgrade over last year’s linebackers.
New England’s top linebacker in run defense finished 34th in PFF’s grades, amongst players that played at least 630 snaps.
If Spillane leads the charge on a massive defensive improvement, I like New England’s chances of winning the AFC East (+750).
