Giants vs. Vikings Prediction, Odds, Pick: NFL Week 1

It’s an intraconference matchup between two teams with low expectations this season. Below, bettors can find my Giants vs. Vikings prediction. 

New York finished third in the NFC East last year but lost talisman Saquon Barkley in free agency. Entering this season, the Giants win total is set at 6.5 games juiced heavily to the under. 

Minnesota also experienced a key departure on offense. Quarterback Kirk Cousins left in free agency for Atlanta. Last year, Minnesota went 3-6 without Cousins. 

Here’s a look at the NFL betting lines and my prediction for this Week 1 contest. 

Giants vs. Vikings Odds

• New York Giants Moneyline: +100
• Minnesota Vikings Moneyline: -120
• Game Spread: Vikings -1.5
• Game Over/Under: 41 Points

Giants vs. Vikings Prediction

Based on the porous output of both offenses last year, I predict this game will stay Under 41.5 Points (-110). However, this is strictly a lean rather than a play. 

Following a season where they won the NFC North, Minnesota faced a brutal schedule of offenses last year. 

Still, they managed to allow only 21.3 points per game, the 13th-best mark in the NFL. 

But, if you shrink the sample down to games against horrific offenses, they improve. Minnesota faced only three teams 25th or worse in EPA per play last year, allowing 13.7 points per game. 

Of those three games, Minnesota held two opponents under 13 points. 

Without Saquon Barkley, I’m not sure how New York’s offense scores many points. 

Plus, Minnesota quietly added Jonathan Grenard and Andrew van Ginkel. That should allow them to pressure Daniel Jones and limit explosive plays. 

At the same time, New York bolstered their defense this offseason by acquiring Brian Burns. That creates a dangerous trio of Burns, Dexter Lawrence and Kayvon Thibodeaux. 

From the time Cousins went out injured last season, Minnesota ranked 22nd in EPA per play and scored 18.7 points per game. 

With Cousins, they averaged 21.9 points per game and ranked 11th in EPA per play. 

Plus, this game matches a historically profitable betting system. 

Since the 2005-06 season, outdoor Week 1 games with a total between 41 and 48 points are 84-48 to the under. 

When the visiting team failed to reach the postseason the previous year, it improves to 56-19 to the under (74.7%). 

Take the under in this matchup as a result.

Giants vs. Vikings Prediction: Justin Jefferson Receptions

My prediction for Giants vs. Vikings is Justin Jefferson Over 6.5 Receptions (+100). 

Congratulations to the Giants for their strong defensive line. The problem is that their secondary remains completely untrustworthy. 

But there’s an interesting dichotomy with New York’s passing defense. Last year, they ranked 12th in dropback EPA per play against 26th in dropback success rate, per rbsdm.com. 

That could easily change under new defensive coordinator Shane Bowen, but Jefferson should still clear this number with relative ease. 

Last year, Jefferson played more than 90% of snaps eight times. He cleared this number five times and notched at least six receptions in all but one game. 

In 2022, Jefferson notched 12 and seven receptions against a Giants pass defense similar in quality to this unit, which lost Xavier McKinney this offseason. 

Of course, the change from Kirk Cousins to Sam Darnold is a notable downgrade. However, I trust Kevin O’Connell as a playcaller to scheme Jefferson open against a bad pass defense. 

Take the over on Jefferson receptions as a result.