Colts Over Under Wins, 2025 NFL Win Totals

For the 2025 NFL season, the Colts’ win total sits at 7.5 wins at the BetMGM online sportsbook. 

Indianapolis experienced a disappointing campaign in 2024, finishing 8-9. That record placed the Colts second in the AFC South for the second straight season. 

Changes galore featured in the 2024 offseason. Lou Anarumo replaces Gus Bradley at defensive coordinator with a number of acquisitions and departures on both sides of the ball. 

Here’s a look at the NFL odds for Indianapolis’ 2025 win total and my Colts win total prediction. 

Colts Win Total Odds

The Colts’ season win total is set at 7.5 games. 

Oddsmakers rate the Colts as a coin flip to finish on either side of their season win total. Both over 7.5 wins and under 7.5 wins feature -110 juice for an implied probability of 52.4%. 

Here are the 2025 NFL win totals for all AFC South teams:

• Houston Texans: 9.5 Wins
• Indianapolis Colts: 7.5 Wins
• Jacksonville Jaguars: 7.5 Wins
• Tennessee Titans: 5.5 Wins

Colts Win Total Prediction 2025

Indianapolis Colts Over 7.5 Wins (-110)

Based on Indianapolis’ defensive improvements and their offensive line play in the face of adversity, I predict the Colts finish Over 7.5 Wins (-110). 

To me, this is one of the toughest teams to evaluate in 2025, and I could see this team going either way. 

That said, there’s a clear path forward to how the Colts win at least eight games in 2025. 

Last year, a direct correlation existed between Indy’s success in games and how much they relied on their quarterbacks. 

The Colts finished 5-0 when they ran the ball at least 34 times and 8-2 when they ran the ball at least 27 times. In all other games: 0-7 SU. 

A lot of focus this offseason will center around whether Anthony Richardson or Daniel Jones starts at quarterback. 

For Indy, the decision should center around which gives them a chance to run the ball most frequently. 

But a glaring concern exists with this team’s rushing ability based on their offseason activity. 

Both Will Fries and Ryan Kelly depart the offensive line in favor of the Vikings. Last season, Indianapolis struggled significantly after Fries suffered a season-ending injury. 

From Weeks 1-5, the Colts ranked 10th in rush EPA per play and 12th in rush success rate, per rbsdm.com. 

From Week 6 onward – after the Colts lost Fries for the season – they dropped to 16th and 23rd, without adjusting for strength of schedule. 

Kelly also missed time for an offensive line that lost 23.1 adjusted games to injury, the eighth-most in the league. 

It should be noted that, in spite of those injuries, the Colts finished fourth in PFF’s run-blocking grades and 10th in pass-blocking grades. 

If the Colts retain those rankings and can run the ball effectively, it opens the door for a defense I really like to drive results. 

Charvarius Ward and Cam Bynum arrive to help improve a pass defense that ranked 22nd in DVOA last year, per ftnfantasy.com. 

Plus, Anarumo inherits a defensive line featuring Grover Stewart, DeForest Buckner, Quity Paye and Laiatu Latu. One could do a lot worse than that quartet. 

Despite myriad injuries to their defense – eighth-most in the league last year – Indianapolis finished 15th in defensive DVOA. 

Assuming they stay healthy and improve that rating, I like the profile of Indianapolis. For those reasons, it would be over 7.5 wins or nothing for me.  

Most Wins in Colts History

The Colts’ franchise record for most regular season wins is 14. Indianapolis has accomplished that feat twice, in 2005 and 2009.

Fewest Wins in Colts History

The Colts’ franchise record for the fewest regular-season wins is one. In 1991, the Colts posted a 1-15 record.