Jaguars Over Under Wins, 2025 NFL Win Totals

For the 2025 NFL season, the Jaguars’ win total sits at 7.5 at the BetMGM online sportsbook. 

Jacksonville produced a disastrous start to the 2024 season, starting 0-4. After losing 10 of its first 12 games, the Jags won two of its last five to finish the season 4-13. 

Jacksonville elected to fire Doug Pederson at the end of a season that included two losses by 30 or more points. To replace him, the Jaguars hired Bucs offensive coordinator Liam Coen. 

Here’s a look at the NFL odds for Jacksonville’s 2025 win total and my Jaguars win total prediction. 

Jaguars Win Total Odds

The Jaguars’ season win total is set at 7.5 games. 

Based on current pricing, the Jaguars are predicted to finish with eight or more wins. Jacksonville is -120 to finish over 8.5 wins, an implied probability of 54.5%. 

Conversely, the Jaguars are +100 to finish with eight or fewer wins, an implied probability of 50%. 

Here are the 2025 NFL win totals for all AFC South teams:

• Houston Texans: 9.5 Wins
• Indianapolis Colts: 7.5 Wins
• Jacksonville Jaguars: 7.5 Wins
• Tennessee Titans: 5.5 Wins

Jaguars Win Total Prediction, 2025

Jacksonville Jaguars Over 7.5 Wins (-120)

Based on Jacksonville’s strong offensive metrics against a tough set of defenses and Coen’s arrival, I predict the Jaguars finish Over 7.5 Wins (-120). 

BET: Jaguars Over 7.5 Wins @ -120

BET: Jaguars Under 7.5 Wins @ +100

Simultaneous arguments exist for and against the Jaguars ahead of the 2025 season. 

The good news? An injury-plagued offense – only 13 teams lost more adjusted games to injury on offense – produced a strong record against good defenses. 

Jacksonville played the hardest set of opposing defenses in 2024. Despite operating with Trevor Lawrence for only seven, they still finished 17th in offensive DVOA, per ftnfantasy.com. 

The bad news: Jacksonville finished the year 31st in defensive DVOA against the easiest schedule of opposing offenses. No injury issues can explain that performance. 

But this was simultaneously a unit that lost four games in which they allowed 20 or fewer points. 

If Coen comes in and improves the offense, it could compensate for a potentially inferior defense. 

Additionally, I’m conscious of the fact Jacksonville ran extremely unlucky in 2024. 

The Jaguars finished 1-4 in games decided by three or fewer points and a whopping 3-10 in games decided by under seven points. 

No other team in the league lost more than seven games by seven or fewer points. 

Based on Jacksonville’s point differential, it should have finished closer to a 6-11, according to ftnfantasy.com. Also worth noting – three of those 10 losses came within the division. 

Historically, teams that wildly underperform one year and finish amongst the league’s worst teams tend to improve the next season. 

Since the schedule expanded to 17 games, seven teams finished a season with seven or fewer wins while underperforming their expected record by at least 1.5 wins. 

In the following season, all seven improved by at least two wins, with five of seven seeing an improvement of four wins or more. 

As a result, I like a resurgent campaign for the Jaguars in 2025 against a fairly easy set of opponents.

Most Wins in Jaguars History

The Jaguars’ franchise record for most regular season wins is 14. In 1999, the Jaguars went 14-2 before losing in the AFC Championship Game.

They’re still among the NFL teams that have never won a Super Bowl.

Fewest Wins in Jaguars History

The Jaguars’ franchise record for the fewest regular-season wins is one. In 2020, Jacksonville posted a 1-15 record. In addition, they had a two-win season in 2012, going 2-14.