Jaguars vs Bills Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 3

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(AP Photo/Joshua Bessex)

BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Sep 18, 2024, 4:09 PM

The Bills are -5.5 point favorites vs the Jaguars
Total (Over/Under): 45.5 points
Watch this game on ESPN

The Jacksonville Jaguars (0-2-0) visit Highmark Stadium to take on the Buffalo Bills (2-0-0) on Sep. 23. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:30pm EDT in Orchard Park, NY.

The Bills are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -5.5 (-110).

The Jaguars vs. Bills Over/Under is 45.5 total points for the game.

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Jaguars vs. Bills Odds, Spread, Over/Under

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Jaguars	+5.5 -110	45.5 -110	+200
Bills	-5.5 -110	45.5 -110	-250

Jaguars vs. Bills Prediction

The winning team model predicts the Bills will win this game with 66.0% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

Jaguars vs Bills Spread Prediction

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Jaguars will cover the spread with 51.2% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Jaguars players this playoff game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Jaguars Player Prop Bets Today

Christian Kirk has hit the Longest Reception Over in 9 of his last 10 games (+7.95 Units / 70% ROI)

Evan Engram has hit the Receptions Over in 11 of his last 16 games (+5.85 Units / 31% ROI)

Mac Jones has hit the Interceptions Over in 7 of his last 8 games (+5.50 Units / 52% ROI)

Travis Etienne has hit the Longest Reception Over in 6 of his last 7 away games (+4.95 Units / 66% ROI)

Trevor Lawrence has hit the Longest Rush Under in 6 of his last 7 games (+4.70 Units / 53% ROI)

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Bills players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Bills Player Prop Best Bets Today

Khalil Shakir has hit the Receptions Over in 10 of his last 14 games (+6.75 Units / 42% ROI)

Dawson Knox has hit the Longest Reception Under in his last 5 games at home (+5.00 Units / 80% ROI)

James Cook has hit the Longest Reception Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 79% ROI)

Josh Allen has hit the Interceptions Over in 13 of his last 19 games (+4.75 Units / 19% ROI)

Dawson Knox has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 5 of his last 6 games at home (+3.75 Units / 46% ROI)

Jaguars Best Bets:

The Jacksonville Jaguars have covered the 3Q Spread in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.75 Units / 33% ROI)

The Jacksonville Jaguars have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.40 Units / 33% ROI)

The Jacksonville Jaguars have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 10 of their last 17 games (+4.05 Units / 17% ROI)

The Jacksonville Jaguars have scored last in 5 of their last 6 away games (+3.80 Units / 54% ROI)

The Jacksonville Jaguars have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 6 of their last 8 away games (+3.70 Units / 40% ROI)

Bills Best Bets:

The Buffalo Bills have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 11 of their last 19 games (+9.95 Units / 30% ROI)

The Buffalo Bills have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 13 of their last 19 games (+7.30 Units / 34% ROI)

The Buffalo Bills have covered the 3Q Spread in 12 of their last 19 games (+4.40 Units / 19% ROI)

The Buffalo Bills have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 10 of their last 19 games (+2.00 Units / 5% ROI)

The Buffalo Bills have hit the 2H Moneyline in 3 of their last 6 games at home (+1.90 Units / 15% ROI)

Jaguars Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Jaguars art 1-1 (-0.1 Units / -4.55% ROI).

Jaguars are 0-2 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.65 Units / -100% ROI
Jaguars are 0-2 when betting the Over for -2.2 Units / -100% ROI
Jaguars are 2-0 when betting the Under for +2 Units / ROI

Bills Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Bills are 1-1 (-0.1 Units / -4.55% ROI).

Bills are 2-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.2 Units / 56.41% ROI
Bills are 1-1 when betting the Over for -0.1 Units / -4.55% ROI
Bills are 1-1 when betting the Under for -0.1 Units / -4.55% ROI

Jacksonville Jaguars: Keys to the Game vs. the Buffalo Bills

The Jaguars were 3-1 (.750) when within 7 points at the two minute warning last season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: .500.

The Jaguars were 1-6 (.143) when scoring less than 22 points last season — T-6th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .253.

The Jaguars were 7-4 (.636) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team last season — 8th-best in NFL; League Avg: .500.

The Jaguars are winless (0-8) whe trailing at the end of the frist half since the 2022 season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .234.

Buffalo Bills: Keys to the Game vs. the Jacksonville Jaguars

The Bills are 5-2 (.714) when not forcing a turnover since the 2022 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .255.

The Bills are undefeated (3-0) after a road win since the 2022 season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .541.

The Bills are 8-1 (.889) at home since the 2022 season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .554.

The Bills are 13-5 (.722) when sacking the QB less than 3 times since the 2022 season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .390.

Additional Matchup Notes for Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Buffalo Bills

The Bills have been successful on 49.0% of plays they have ran against a stacked front since the 2023 season — 5th-best in NFL. The Jaguars have allowed their opponents to be successful on 51.7% of plays with a stacked front since the 2023 season — 3rd-worst in NFL.

The Bills have averaged 0.28 epa per play on play action passes since the 2023 season — 4th-best in NFL. The Jaguars have allowed 0.20 epa per play on play action passes since the 2023 season — 3rd-worst in NFL.

The Bills have run successful plays on 67.4% of rush attempts against a base rush since the 2023 season — 3rd-best in NFL. The Jaguars have allowed successful plays on 75.8% of rush attempts with a base rush since the 2023 season — 2nd-worst in NFL.

The Jaguars have run successful plays on 66.7% of pass attempts on play action passes this season — T-3rd-best in NFL. The Bills have allowed successful plays on 66.7% of pass attempts on play action passes this season — 3rd-worst in NFL.

The Jaguars have scored on 16.7% of their drives in the second half this season — T-2nd-worst in NFL. The Bills defense has allowed scores on 10% of opponent drives in the second half this season — 3rd-best in NFL.

Jaguars WRs have averaged just 3.1 yards after the catch since the 2023 season — worst in NFL. The Bills have allowed just 3.2 yards after catch per reception to WRs since the 2023 season — best in NFL.

Jacksonville Jaguars Offense: Important Stats

The Jaguars faced a blitz 40% of the time on 3rd and short in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 12%.

The Jaguars have started 5 drives inside their own 10 yard line this season — most in NFL.

The Jaguars have thrown 55% of their pass attempts 1 to 10 yards downfield this season — 2nd-lowest in NFL; League Avg: 71%.

The Jaguars have started 8 drives inside their own 20 yard line this season — T-most in NFL.

Buffalo Bills Offense: Important Stats

The Bills ran successful plays on 51% of plays in the 4th quarter last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 40%.

The Bills have started 7 drives inside opposing territory this season — most in NFL.

The Bills have scored 6 TDs in the red zone this season — 2nd-most in NFL.

The Bills went three and out on 12% of their drives last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 22%.

Jacksonville Jaguars Defense: Important Stats

The Jaguars defense allowed 3 TD passes in close and late situations last season — T-most in NFL.

The Jaguars defense were flagged 4 times for defensive holding or pass interference last season — fewest in NFL.

The Jaguars defense has allowed 17.5 yards per reception (245 yards/14 catches) on 1st down this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 10.9.

The Jaguars defense has allowed a third down conversion rate of 11% on third and 10+ yards to go since the 2022 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 18%.

Buffalo Bills Defense: Important Stats

The Bills defense have allowed -1.84 epa per play with tight coverage this season — best in NFL; League Avg: -0.57.

The Bills defense has allowed successful plays on 11% of pass attempts with a light rush since the 2022 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 41%.

The Bills defense allowed -0.67 epa per play with a light rush last season — best in NFL; League Avg: -0.04.

The Bills defense allowed successful plays on 11% of pass attempts with a light rush last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 40%.

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