Chiefs vs Jaguars Prediction, Odds & Prop Bets – AFC Divisional Round

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jan 20, 2023, 11:25 AM
  • The Chiefs (14-3) are -9 point favorites vs the Jaguars (9-8)
  • Total (Over/Under): 53 points
  • Watch the game on NBC

The Jacksonville Jaguars (9-8) visit GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium to take on the Kansas City Chiefs (14-3) on Saturday, Jan. 21. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:30pm EST in Kansas City.

The Chiefs are betting favorites in this AFC Divisional Round playoff game with the spread sitting at -9 (-110).

The Jaguars vs. Chiefs Over/Under is 53 total points for the game.

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Jaguars vs. Chiefs Odds, Spread, Over/Under, AFC Divisional Round:

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Jaguars+9 -11053 -110+333
Chiefs -9 -11053 -110-450

Chiefs vs Jaguars Prediction for AFC Divisional Round

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts the Chiefs will win this AFC Divisional Round game with 72.8% confidence.

Chiefs vs Jaguars Spread Prediction for AFC Divisional Round

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Jaguars will cover the spread in this AFC Divisional Round with 62.0% confidence.

Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both the Jaguars and Chiefs, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.


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Best Jaguars Player Prop Bets Today

  • Christian Kirk has hit the Receptions Over in 12 of his last 18 games (+6.45 Units / 31% ROI)
  • Marvin Jones has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 7 of his last 8 away games (+5.75 Units / 56% ROI)
  • Evan Engram has hit the Receptions Over in 9 of his last 13 games (+5.70 Units / 37% ROI)
  • Trevor Lawrence has hit the Completions Over in 12 of his last 18 games (+5.35 Units / 27% ROI)
  • Travis Etienne has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 11 of his last 16 games (+5.30 Units / 29% ROI)

Best Chiefs Player Prop Best Bets Today

  • Melvin Gordon has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 9 games (+9.00 Units / 74% ROI)
  • Jerick McKinnon has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 9 of his last 10 games at home (+7.85 Units / 70% ROI)
  • Jerick McKinnon has hit the Receptions Over in 7 of his last 9 games at home (+7.05 Units / 74% ROI)
  • Noah Gray has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 8 of his last 9 games (+6.85 Units / 67% ROI)
  • Jerick McKinnon has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 8 of his last 10 games at home (+5.15 Units / 38% ROI)

First Touchdown Scorer Bet for Chiefs vs Jaguars

Player Name 1st TD Odds
Travis Kelce +550
Isiah Pacheco +700
Jerrick McKinnon +750
Travis Etienne +850
JuJu Smith-Schuster +1100

Anytime Touchdown Scorer Bet for Chiefs vs Jaguars

Player Name Anytime TD Odds
Travis Kelce -135
Travis Etienne -110
Jerrick McKinnon +100
Christian Kirk +125
Isiah Pacheco +155

Receiving Props: Total Receiving Yards for Chiefs vs Jaguars

Player Name Over Under
Jamal Agnew 5.5 -120 5.5 -110
Travis Etienne 17.5 -120 17.5 -110
Marvin Jones Jr. 28.5 -120 28.5 -110
Travis Kelce 79.5 -115 79.5 -115
Noah Gray 15.5 -115 15.5 -115

Rushing Props: Total Rushing Yards for Chiefs vs Jaguars

Player Name Over Under
Trevor Lawrence 15.5 -120 15.5 -110
Patrick Mahomes 23.5 -120 23.5 -110
Jerick McKinnon 24.5 -120 24.5 -110
Isaih Pacheco 48.5 -115 48.5 -115
Travis Etienne 71.5 -115 71.5 -120
  • The Jacksonville Jaguars have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 12 of their last 18 games (+9.35 Units / 46% ROI)
  • The Jacksonville Jaguars have hit the 2H Moneyline in 8 of their last 10 games (+8.80 Units / 67% ROI)
  • The Jacksonville Jaguars have hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 10 games (+8.40 Units / 67% ROI)
  • The Jacksonville Jaguars have covered the 2H Spread in 9 of their last 10 games (+7.95 Units / 73% ROI)
  • The Jacksonville Jaguars have covered the 3Q Spread in 13 of their last 18 games (+7.50 Units / 32% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 14 games (+9.65 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the Team Total Under in their last 9 games at home (+9.00 Units / 90% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 1Q Game Total Under in their last 9 games at home (+9.00 Units / 87% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 10 of their last 14 games (+5.50 Units / 33% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Chiefs have scored first in their last 5 games at home (+5.00 Units / 44% ROI)

Jaguars Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Jaguars have gone 9-9 (-0.9 Units / -4.57% ROI).

  • Jaguars are 10-8 when betting on the Moneyline for +3 Units / 12.66% ROI
  • Jaguars are 9-9 when betting the Over for -0.95 Units / -4.79% ROI
  • Jaguars are 9-9 when betting the Under for -0.9 Units / ROI

Chiefs Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Chiefs have gone 7-10 (-4.1 Units / -21.81% ROI).

  • Chiefs are 14-3 when betting on the Moneyline for +9.35 Units / 13.18% ROI
  • Chiefs are 8-9 when betting the Over for -1.9 Units / -10.16% ROI
  • Chiefs are 9-8 when betting the Under for +0.2 Units / 1.07% ROI

Jacksonville Jaguars: Keys to the Game vs. the Kansas City Chiefs

The Jaguars are 4-5 (.444) when rushing more than 30 times since the 2021 season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .763.

The Jaguars are 2-7 (.222) when the opposing team converts 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns this season — tied for 7th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .414.

The Jaguars are 2-8 (.200) when the opposing team commits less than 30 yards in penalties since the 2021 season — tied for 3rd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .455.

The Jaguars are 2-25 (.074) when the opposing team converts 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns since the 2020 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .420.

Kansas City Chiefs: Keys to the Game vs. the Jacksonville Jaguars

The Chiefs are 13-6 (.684) when rushing less than 25 times since the 2021 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .295.

The Chiefs are 12-2 (.857) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team this season — tied for best in NFL; League Avg: .494.

The Chiefs are 8-5 (.615) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times since the 2020 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .214.

The Chiefs are undefeated (4-0) when committing less than 30 yards in penalties since the 2021 season — tied for best in NFL; League Avg: .538.

Additional Matchup Notes for Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Chiefs TEs have 103.8 receiving yards per game this season — best in NFL. The Jaguars have allowed an average of62.7 receiving yards per game to TEs this season — fourth-worst in NFL.

The Chiefs have thrown for 5,247 passing yards in 17 games (308.6 YPG) this season — best in NFL. The Jaguars have allowed 238.5 passing yards per game this season — fifth-worst in NFL.

The Chiefs have a third down conversion rate of 49.0% this season — second-best in NFL. The Jaguars defense has allowed a third down conversion rate of 43.4% this season — fourth-worst in NFL.

Jaguars WRs have been targeted 25 times inside the 10 yardline this season — tied for third-most in NFL. The Chiefs have allowed 9 receiving touchdowns inside the 10 yardline to WRs this season — tied for third-most in NFL.

Jaguars WRs had 13 receiving touchdowns inside the 10 yardline this season — tied for most in NFL. The Chiefs have allowed 9 receiving touchdowns inside the 10 yardline to WRs this season — tied for third-most in NFL.

Jaguars WRs have 16 receiving touchdowns in the Red Zone this season — tied for most in NFL. The Chiefs have allowed 27 receiving touchdowns when defending in the red zone this season — most in NFL.

Jacksonville Jaguars Offense: Important Stats for AFC Divisional Round

The Jaguars ran the ball on 26% of plays (12 carries/47 plays) in Week 18 — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 45%.

The Jaguars ran 39% of their plays in their opponent’s territory last season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 46%.

The Jaguars have gone three and out 5 times in the 3rd quarter this season — tied for fewest in NFL.

The Jaguars converted first downs on 15 of 46 plays (33%) on plays when their QB was pressured in the last 8 weeks of the regular season — best in NFL; League Avg: 17%.

Kansas City Chiefs Offense: Important Stats for AFC Divisional Round

The Chiefs have a third down conversion rate of 43% on third and 10+ yards to go this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 19%.

The Chiefs have converted first downs on 36 of 80 plays (45%) on 3rd and long this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 24%.

The Chiefs have scored 50 TDs in the red zone this season — most in NFL.

The Chiefs have thrown for 41 TDs this season — most in NFL.

Jacksonville Jaguars Defense: Important Stats for AFC Divisional Round

The Jaguars defense intercepted 6 of 542 attempts (90.3 pass attempts per int.) last season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 42.6.

The Jaguars defense hit opposing QBs on 41% of pass attempts in Week 18 — best in NFL; League Avg: 17%.

The Jaguars defense allowed successful plays on 53% of plays in the 1st quarter last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 43%.

The Jaguars defense stuffed 37% (11/30) of rushing attempts on 3rd and short last season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 23%.

Kansas City Chiefs Defense: Important Stats for AFC Divisional Round

The Chiefs defense sacked opponents 6 times in Week 18 — 2nd-most in NFL.

The Chiefs defense has allowed successful plays on 53% of rush attempts in the 4th quarter since the 2021 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 42%.

The Chiefs defense pressured opposing QBs 20 times in Week 18 — most in NFL.

The Chiefs defense has allowed 27 touchdown receptions in the red zone this season — most in NFL.

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.