- The Dolphins are -3 point favorites vs the Jaguars
- Total (Over/Under): 49.5 points
- Watch this game on CBS
The Jacksonville Jaguars (0-0-0) visit Hard Rock Stadium to take on the Miami Dolphins (0-0-0) on Sep. 8. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EDT in Miami Gardens, FL.
The Dolphins are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -3 (-120).
The Jaguars vs. Dolphins Over/Under is 49.5 total points for the game.
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Jaguars vs. Dolphins Odds, Spread, Over/Under
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Jaguars | +3 +100 | 49.5 -110 | +140 |
| Dolphins | -3 -120 | 49.5 -110 | -165 |
Jaguars vs. Dolphins Prediction
The winning team model predicts the Dolphins will win this game with 64.1% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
Jaguars vs Dolphins Spread Prediction
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Jaguars will cover the spread with 63.2% confidence.
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Best Jaguars Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Jaguars players this playoff game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Evan Engram has hit the Receptions Over in 13 of his last 17 games (+9.50 Units / 48% ROI)
- Christian Kirk has hit the Longest Reception Over in 10 of his last 11 games (+8.95 Units / 72% ROI)
- Mac Jones has hit the Interceptions Over in 9 of his last 11 games (+6.40 Units / 45% ROI)
- Evan Engram has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 12 of his last 17 games (+6.35 Units / 32% ROI)
- Travis Etienne has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 7 of his last 8 away games (+5.85 Units / 66% ROI)
Best Dolphins Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Dolphins players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Braxton Berrios has hit the Longest Reception Under in his last 10 games (+10.00 Units / 84% ROI)
- Braxton Berrios has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 10 of his last 11 games (+8.75 Units / 63% ROI)
- Durham Smythe has hit the Receptions Over in his last 8 games (+8.55 Units / 90% ROI)
- Raheem Mostert has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+7.80 Units / 60% ROI)
- Raheem Mostert has hit the Receptions Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+7.75 Units / 50% ROI)
First Touchdown Scorer Bet for Dolphins vs Jaguars
| Player Name | 1st TD Odds |
|---|---|
| Tyreek Hill (Mia) | +650 |
| Travis Etienne (Jac) | +700 |
| Raheem Mostert (Mia) | +700 |
| Devon Achane (Mia) | +700 |
Anytime Touchdown Scorer Bet for Dolphins vs Jaguars
| Player Name | Anytime TD Odds |
|---|---|
| Tyreek Hill (Mia) | -125 |
| Travis Etienne (Jac) | +100 |
| Raheem Mostert (Mia) | +115 |
| Devon Achane (Mia) | +115 |
Receiving Props: Total Receiving Yards for Dolphins vs Jaguars
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Travis Etienne (JAC) | 18.5 -120 | 18.5 -110 |
| Christian Kirk (JAC) | 55.5 -115 | 55.5 -115 |
| Tyreek Hill (MIA) | 97.5 -115 | 97.5 -120 |
| Brian Thomas Jr. (JAC) | 41.5 -115 | 41.5 -115 |
| Jonnu Smith (MIA) | 24.5 -115 | 24.5 -115 |
Rushing Props: Total Rushing Yards for Dolphins vs Jaguars
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Tua Tagovailoa (MIA) | 3.5 -110 | 3.5 -120 |
| Trevor Lawrence (JAC) | 15.5 -120 | 15.5 -110 |
| Raheem Mostert (MIA) | 42.5 -120 | 42.5 -110 |
| Devon Achane (MIA) | 51.5 -120 | 51.5 -110 |
| Travis Etienne (JAC) | 58.5 -115 | 58.5 -115 |
Jaguars Best Bets:
- The Jacksonville Jaguars have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 10 of their last 12 games (+8.25 Units / 61% ROI)
- The Jacksonville Jaguars have covered the 3Q Spread in 10 of their last 13 games (+6.90 Units / 43% ROI)
- The Jacksonville Jaguars have covered the 1H Spread in 13 of their last 20 games (+5.20 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Jacksonville Jaguars have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 8 of their last 12 games (+4.35 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Jacksonville Jaguars have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in their last 4 away games (+4.10 Units / 90% ROI)
Dolphins Best Bets:
- The Miami Dolphins have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 14 of their last 20 games (+7.35 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Miami Dolphins have covered the 3Q Spread in 8 of their last 9 games at home (+7.20 Units / 69% ROI)
- The Miami Dolphins have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 7 of their last 9 games at home (+7.00 Units / 36% ROI)
- The Miami Dolphins have hit the 1H Moneyline in 10 of their last 11 games at home (+5.95 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Miami Dolphins have hit the 3Q Game Total Under in their last 5 games at home (+5.00 Units / 89% ROI)
Jaguars Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL preseason, the Jaguars went 3-0 (+3 Units / 90.91% ROI).
- Jaguars are 3-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +3 Units / 42.25% ROI
- Jaguars are 0-3 when betting the Over for -3.3 Units / -100% ROI
- Jaguars are 3-0 when betting the Under for +3 Units / ROI
Dolphins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL preseason, the Dolphins went 2-1 (+0.9 Units / 27.27% ROI).
- Dolphins are 2-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.3 Units / 30.59% ROI
- Dolphins are 1-2 when betting the Over for -1.2 Units / -36.36% ROI
- Dolphins are 2-1 when betting the Under for +0.9 Units / 27.27% ROI
Jacksonville Jaguars: Keys to the Game vs. the Miami Dolphins
The Jaguars were 4-1 (.800) vs bottom 10 pass offenses last season — T-8th-best in NFL; League Avg: .641.
The Jaguars were 8-1 (.889) when leading at the end of first quarter last season — 7th-best in NFL; League Avg: .737.
The Jaguars were 5-1 (.833) when allowing less than 30% of third down conversion opportunities last season — T-9th-best in NFL; League Avg: .652.
The Jaguars were 1-6 (.143) when rushing less than 25 times last season — T-8th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .281.
Miami Dolphins: Keys to the Game vs. the Jacksonville Jaguars
The Dolphins were winless (0-4) vs top 10 run offenses last season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .424.
The Dolphins were undefeated (7-0) when allowing less than 5 explosive passes last season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .574.
The Dolphins are 15-6 (.714) when passing for 250 or more yards since the 2022 season — 5th-best in NFL. The Jaguars have allowed 239.1 passing yards per game since the 2022 season — 4th-worst in NFL.
The Dolphins were 4-3 (.571) on the road last season — T-6th-best in NFL; League Avg: .442.
Additional Matchup Notes for Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Miami Dolphins
The Dolphins were successful on 50.0% of plays they have run against a stacked front last season — 3rd-best in NFL. The Jaguars allowed their opponents to be successful on 50.0% of plays with a stacked front last season — T-4th-worst in NFL.
The Dolphins were successful on 57.4% of plays they have run on play action passes last season — 2nd-best in NFL. The Jaguars allowed their opponents to be successful on 54.3% of plays on play action passes last season — 2nd-worst in NFL.
The Dolphins have run successful plays on 55.6% of pass attempts on play action passes since the 2022 season — 5th-best in NFL. The Jaguars have allowed successful plays on 55.1% of pass attempts on play action passes since the 2022 season — 2nd-worst in NFL.
The Jaguars have been successful on 50.0% of plays they have run against a light rush since the 2022 season — 3rd-best in NFL. The Dolphins have allowed their opponents to be successful on 49.2% of plays with a light rush since the 2022 season — 2nd-worst in NFL.
The Jaguars have run successful plays on 52.7% of pass attempts against a light rush since the 2022 season — 4th-best in NFL. The Dolphins have allowed successful plays on 50.9% of pass attempts with a light rush since the 2022 season — 3rd-worst in NFL.
Jaguars RBs rushed for 10 or more yards on just 6.7% of 358 carries last season — T-4th-worst in NFL. The Dolphins allowed 10+ yards on just 5.3% of carries to RBs last season — best in NFL.
Jacksonville Jaguars Offense: Important Stats
The Jaguars faced a blitz 40% of the time on 3rd and short in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 12%.
The Jaguars ran 50% of their plays in the red zone in the 4th quarter in Week 18 — T-best in NFL; League Avg: 14%.
The Jaguars turned the ball over on downs 5 times in the red zone last season — 2nd-most in NFL.
The Jaguars ran successful plays on 64% of rush attempts in the 2nd half in Week 18 — best in NFL; League Avg: 39%.
Miami Dolphins Offense: Important Stats
The Dolphins ran successful plays on 0% of rush attempts in the 2nd half in Week 18 — worst in NFL; League Avg: 39%.
The Dolphins had 19 TDs that were 20+ yards last season — most in NFL.
The Dolphins scored 8 TDs from their own territory last season — most in NFL.
The Dolphins have scored 13 TDs from their own territory since the 2022 season — most in NFL.
Jacksonville Jaguars Defense: Important Stats
The Jaguars defense allowed an average of 4.9 yards after contact per carry (23 carries) in Week 18 — worst in NFL; League Avg: 2.0.
The Jaguars defense allowed successful plays on 76% of rush attempts with a base rush last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 57%.
The Jaguars defense allowed a third down conversion rate of 16% on 3rd and long last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 24%.
The Jaguars defense allowed an average of 1.5 yards after contact per carry (403 carries) last season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 1.8.
Miami Dolphins Defense: Important Stats
The Dolphins defense allowed 0.44 epa per play at home in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 0.01.
Dolphins were flagged 6 times for 10+ yards on defense last season — 2nd-fewest in NFL.
The Dolphins defense allowed rushes of 10+ yards on just 32 of 415 carries (8%) last season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 11%.
The Dolphins defense allowed -0.22 epa per play with a light front last season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: -0.05.
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