Jaguars vs Texans Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets โ€“ NFL, Week 4

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Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud (7) looks to throw a pass during the first half of an NFL football game against the Tennessee Titans, Sunday, Dec. 31, 2023, in Houston. (AP Photo/Eric Christian Smith)
(AP Photo/Eric Christian Smith)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Sep 27, 2024, 12:07 PM
  • The Texans are -6.5 point favorites vs the Jaguars
  • Total (Over/Under): 45 points
  • Watch this game on CBS

The Jacksonville Jaguars (0-3-0) visit NRG Stadium to take on the Houston Texans (2-1-0) on Sep. 29. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EDT in Houston, TX.

The Texans are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -6 (-115).

The Jaguars vs. Texans Over/Under is 44.5 total points for the game.

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Jaguars vs. Texans Odds, Spread, Over/Under

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Jaguars+6 -10544.5 -110+220
Texans -6 -11544.5 -110-275

Jaguars vs. Texans Prediction

The winning team model predicts the Texans will win this game with 71.0% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

Jaguars vs Texans Spread Prediction

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Jaguars will cover the spread with 52.0% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.


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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Jaguars players this playoff game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Jaguars Player Prop Bets Today

  • Christian Kirk has hit the Longest Reception Over in 8 of his last 9 games (+6.95 Units / 68% ROI)
  • Mac Jones has hit the Interceptions Over in 7 of his last 8 games (+5.50 Units / 52% ROI)
  • Travis Etienne has hit the Longest Reception Over in 6 of his last 7 away games (+4.95 Units / 66% ROI)
  • Trevor Lawrence has hit the Longest Rush Under in 6 of his last 7 games (+4.70 Units / 53% ROI)
  • Evan Engram has hit the Receptions Over in 10 of his last 15 games (+4.70 Units / 27% ROI)

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Texans players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Texans Player Prop Best Bets Today

  • Stefon Diggs has hit the Longest Reception Under in 11 of his last 13 games (+8.45 Units / 51% ROI)
  • Robert Woods has hit the Longest Reception Under in 10 of his last 12 games (+7.60 Units / 49% ROI)
  • C.J. Stroud has hit the Interceptions Under in 13 of his last 17 games (+6.55 Units / 23% ROI)
  • Stefon Diggs has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 13 of his last 19 games (+6.00 Units / 26% ROI)
  • Dameon Pierce has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 7 of his last 8 games (+5.70 Units / 55% ROI)

First Touchdown Scorer Bet for Texans vs Jaguars

Player Name 1st TD Odds
Cam Akers (HOU) +450
Nico Collins (Hou) +550
Stefon Diggs (HOU) +550
Travis Etienne (Jac) +750

Receiving Props: Total Receiving Yards for Texans vs Jaguars

Player Name Over Under
Brian Thomas Jr. (JAC) 45.5 -115 45.5 -115
Travis Etienne (JAC) 20.5 -115 20.5 -115
Gabe Davis (JAC) 36.5 -115 36.5 -115

Rushing Props: Total Rushing Yards for Texans vs Jaguars

Player Name Over Under
CJ Stroud (HOU) 8.5 -115 8.5 -115
Trevor Lawrence (JAC) 16.5 -115 16.5 -115
Travis Etienne (JAC) 50.5 -115 50.5 -115
  • The Jacksonville Jaguars have covered the 3Q Spread in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.75 Units / 33% ROI)
  • The Jacksonville Jaguars have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.40 Units / 33% ROI)
  • The Jacksonville Jaguars have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 7 of their last 9 away games (+4.70 Units / 45% ROI)
  • The Jacksonville Jaguars have hit the 1H Moneyline in 12 of their last 20 games (+4.50 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The Jacksonville Jaguars have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 10 of their last 17 games (+4.30 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The Houston Texans have hit the 1H Moneyline in 15 of their last 22 games (+10.40 Units / 34% ROI)
  • The Houston Texans have hit the Moneyline in 15 of their last 22 games (+8.35 Units / 26% ROI)
  • The Houston Texans have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 11 of their last 19 games (+7.30 Units / 31% ROI)
  • The Houston Texans have covered the 2H Spread in 7 of their last 9 games at home (+5.05 Units / 51% ROI)
  • The Houston Texans have covered the 1H Spread in 14 of their last 22 games (+5.05 Units / 20% ROI)

Jaguars Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Jaguars art 1-2 (-1.2 Units / -36.36% ROI).

  • Jaguars are 0-3 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.65 Units / -100% ROI
  • Jaguars are 1-2 when betting the Over for -1.2 Units / -36.36% ROI
  • Jaguars are 2-1 when betting the Under for +0.9 Units / ROI

Texans Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Texans are 0-2 (-2.2 Units / -66.67% ROI).

  • Texans are 2-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.7 Units / 12.07% ROI
  • Texans are 1-2 when betting the Over for -1.2 Units / -36.36% ROI
  • Texans are 2-1 when betting the Under for +0.9 Units / 27.27% ROI

Jacksonville Jaguars: Keys to the Game vs. the Houston Texans

The Jaguars are winless (0-6) when allowing 27 or more points since the 2022 season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .164.

The Jaguars were undefeated (9-0) when leading at the end of the first half last season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .783.

The Jaguars were 3-1 (.750) when within 7 points at the two minute warning last season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: .500.

The Jaguars were 1-4 (.200) vs top 10 offenses last season — T-7th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .359.

Houston Texans: Keys to the Game vs. the Jacksonville Jaguars

The Texans are 8-3 (.727) when passing for 250 or more yards since the 2023 season — 7th-best in NFL. The Jaguars have allowed 241.6 passing yards per game since the 2023 season — 5th-worst in NFL.

The Texans are 12-5 (.706) when forcing 1 or more turnovers since the 2023 season — T-7th-best in NFL. The Jaguars have turned the ball over 34 times since the 2023 season — 3rd-most in NFL.

The Texans are 6-2 (.750) when allowing less than 3 sacks since the 2023 season — T-8th-best in NFL. The Jaguars have averaged just 2.2 sacks per game over that time span — T-4th-worst in NFL.

The Texans are 9-3 (.750) when within 7 points at the two minute warning since the 2022 season — T-2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: .500.

Additional Matchup Notes for Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Houston Texans

The Texans have thrown for 5,379 passing yards in 20 games (269.0 YPG) since the 2023 season — 4th-best in NFL. The Jaguars have allowed 241.6 passing yards per game since the 2023 season — 5th-worst in NFL.

Texans RBs have averaged just 1.6 yards after contact per carry since the 2023 season — T-3rd-worst in NFL. The Jaguars have allowed just 1.6 yards after contact per carry to RBs since the 2023 season — best in NFL.

The Texans are 8-3 (.727) when passing for 250 or more yards since the 2023 season — 7th-best in NFL. The Jaguars have allowed 241.6 passing yards per game since the 2023 season — 5th-worst in NFL.

The Jaguars ran successful plays on just 33.3% of pass attempts against a base front last week — 4th-worst in NFL. The Texans allowed successful plays on just 28.6% of pass attempts with a base front last week — 2nd-best in NFL.

The Jaguars ran successful plays on just 33.3% of pass attempts against a base front last week — 4th-worst in NFL. The Texans pressured opposing QBs on 42.9% of pass attempts with a base front last week — 5th-best in NFL.

The Jaguars have run successful plays on just 8.3% of pass attempts when their QB was under pressure this season — worst in NFL. The Texans have pressured opposing QBs on 33.3% of passing plays this season — 5th-best in NFL.

Jacksonville Jaguars Offense: Important Stats

The Jaguars have started 4 drives inside their own 10 yard line in the 2nd half this season — most in NFL.

The Jaguars faced a blitz 40% of the time on 3rd and short in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 12%.

The Jaguars have a third down conversion rate of 7% in the 2nd half this season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 32%.

The Jaguars have turned the ball over on downs 5 times this season — 2nd-most in NFL.

Houston Texans Offense: Important Stats

The Texans have run successful plays on 31% of rush attempts against a stacked front since the 2022 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 44%.

The Texans averaged -1.10 epa per play against a stacked front in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — worst in NFL; League Avg: -0.01.

The Texans ran successful plays on 25% of rush attempts against a stacked front last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 42%.

The Texans faced a blitz 78% of the time in Week 3 — highest in NFL; League Avg: 17%.

Jacksonville Jaguars Defense: Important Stats

The Jaguars defense allowed a third down conversion rate of 6% on third and 10+ yards to go last season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 17%.

The Jaguars defense allowed successful plays on 76% of rush attempts with a base rush last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 57%.

The Jaguars defense allowed 3 TD passes in close and late situations last season — T-most in NFL.

The Jaguars defense has allowed scores on 69% of opponent drives in the 1st half this season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 42%.

Houston Texans Defense: Important Stats

The Texans defense allowed a passer rating of just 64.7 in the red zone (63 Pass Attempts) last season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 93.0.

The Texans defense has allowed successful plays on 27% of pass attempts with a base front this season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 46%.

The Texans defense allowed successful plays on 12% of plays with a light front in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — best in NFL; League Avg: 42%.

The Texans defense allowed a third down conversion rate of 9% on motion plays in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — best in NFL; League Avg: 40%.

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.