- The Bills are -9.5 point favorites vs the Jets
- Total (Over/Under): 47 points
- Watch this game on CBS
The New York Jets (4-11-0) visit Highmark Stadium to take on the Buffalo Bills (12-3-0) on Dec. 29. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EST in Orchard Park, NY.
The Bills are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -9.5 (-110).
The Jets vs. Bills Over/Under is 47 total points for the game.
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Jets vs. Bills Odds, Spread, Over/Under
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Jets | +9.5 -110 | 47 -110 | +375 |
| Bills | -9.5 -110 | 47 -110 | -500 |
Jets vs. Bills Prediction
The winning team model predicts the Bills will win this game with 80.0% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
Jets vs Bills Spread Prediction
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Bills will cover the spread with 58.0% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Jets players this playoff game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Jets Player Prop Bets Today
- Braelon Allen has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 9 of his last 11 games (+6.70 Units / 53% ROI)
- Braelon Allen has hit the Carries Under in 7 of his last 8 games (+5.90 Units / 62% ROI)
- Breece Hall has hit the Carries Under in 7 of his last 8 away games (+5.85 Units / 61% ROI)
- Aaron Rodgers has hit the Interceptions Under in 7 of his last 8 games (+5.55 Units / 54% ROI)
- Aaron Rodgers has hit the TD Passes Over in 9 of his last 14 games (+5.45 Units / 37% ROI)
And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Bills players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Bills Player Prop Best Bets Today
- Khalil Shakir has hit the Receptions Over in 12 of his last 18 games (+6.20 Units / 30% ROI)
- Curtis Samuel has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 9 of his last 13 games (+4.40 Units / 29% ROI)
- Amari Cooper has hit the Receptions Under in 9 of his last 13 games (+4.30 Units / 26% ROI)
- James Cook has hit the Receptions Over in 7 of his last 10 games at home (+4.00 Units / 34% ROI)
- Josh Allen has hit the Completions Over in 12 of his last 19 games (+4.00 Units / 19% ROI)
Jets Best Bets:
- The New York Jets have hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 8 of their last 11 away games (+5.05 Units / 42% ROI)
- The New York Jets have covered the 3Q Spread in 11 of their last 17 games (+4.85 Units / 24% ROI)
- The New York Jets have hit the 2H Moneyline in 5 of their last 8 games (+3.40 Units / 35% ROI)
- The New York Jets have covered the 2H Spread in 7 of their last 11 games (+2.89 Units / 23% ROI)
- The New York Jets have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 6 of their last 10 away games (+1.75 Units / 16% ROI)
Bills Best Bets:
- The Buffalo Bills have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 15 of their last 19 games (+10.50 Units / 47% ROI)
- The Buffalo Bills have hit the Moneyline in 16 of their last 22 games (+8.80 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Buffalo Bills have hit the Team Total Over in 15 of their last 21 games (+8.30 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Buffalo Bills have hit the 2H Moneyline in 10 of their last 16 games (+6.90 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Buffalo Bills have covered the 2H Spread in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.79 Units / 35% ROI)
Jets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Jets art 5-10 (-6.1 Units / -36.31% ROI).
- Jets are 4-11 when betting on the Moneyline for -14.3 Units / -54.06% ROI
- Jets are 8-6 when betting the Over for +1.4 Units / 8.48% ROI
- Jets are 6-8 when betting the Under for -2.8 Units / ROI
Bills Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Bills are 9-6 (+2.5 Units / 15.15% ROI).
- Bills are 12-3 when betting on the Moneyline for +8.55 Units / 22.56% ROI
- Bills are 9-6 when betting the Over for +2.3 Units / 13.86% ROI
- Bills are 6-9 when betting the Under for -3.9 Units / -23.78% ROI
New York Jets: Keys to the Game vs. the Buffalo Bills
The Jets are winless (0-5) when allowing an average of more than 5 yards on first down plays this season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .428.
The Jets were winless (0-6) when allowing an average of more than 5 yards on first down plays last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .421.
The Jets are 3-12 (.200) when throwing at least 1 interception since the 2023 season — 5th-worst in NFL. The Bills have intercepted 32 passes since the 2023 season — T-5th-most in NFL.
The Jets are winless (0-9) when the opposing team converts 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns this season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .401.
Buffalo Bills: Keys to the Game vs. the New York Jets
The Bills are 16-3 (.842) when possessing the ball longer than their opponent since the 2023 season — 4th-best in NFL. The Jets has allowed an average time of possession of 31 min and 5 s since the 2023 season — 5th-highest in NFL.
The Bills are 7-0 (1.000) when possessing the ball longer than their opponent this season — T-best in NFL. The Jets has allowed an average time of possession of 31 min and 2 s this season — 5th-highest in NFL.
The Bills are 4-1 (.800) vs top 10 run offenses this season — T-2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: .360.
The Bills are 6-2 (.750) vs top 10 run offenses since the 2023 season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: .394.
Additional Matchup Notes for New York Jets vs. Buffalo Bills
The Bills have scored on 46% of their drives in the fourth quarter this season — 3rd-best in NFL. The Jets defense has allowed scores on 47.8% of opponent drives in the 4th quarter this season — 3rd-worst in NFL.
The Bills have scored on 50.3% of their drives this season — T-2nd-best in NFL. The Jets defense has allowed scores on 43.6% of opponent drives this season — 4th-worst in NFL.
The Bills have run 18.2% offensive plays in the red zone this season — T-3rd-best in NFL. The Jets have allowed their opponent to run 17.2% of plays in the red zone this season — T-4th-worst in NFL.
The Jets have run successful plays on just 37.2% of rush attempts since the 2023 season — 2nd-worst in NFL. The Bills have allowed successful plays on just 39.5% of rush attempts since the 2023 season — 4th-best in NFL.
The Jets have averaged just -0.11 epa per play in the second half since the 2023 season — 5th-worst in NFL. The Bills have allowed just -0.11 epa per play in the second half since the 2023 season — 4th-best in NFL.
The Jets have averaged just 0.27 epa per play against open coverage since the 2023 season — 5th-worst in NFL. The Bills have allowed just 0.30 epa per play with open coverage since the 2023 season — 3rd-best in NFL.
New York Jets Offense: Important Stats
The Jets converted first downs on just 16 of 126 plays (13%) on 3rd and long last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 24%.
The Jets averaged 11.8 drives per TD last season — worst Drives Per TD rate in NFL; League Avg: 5.0.
The Jets have run the ball on 28% of plays (32 carries/115 plays) in the red zone this season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 50%.
The Jets averaged 10.1 drives per TD in the 2nd half last season — worst Drives Per TD rate in NFL; League Avg: 5.0.
Buffalo Bills Offense: Important Stats
The Bills have averaged 0.28 epa per play on motion plays this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 0.00.
The Bills went three and out on 12% of their drives last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 22%.
The Bills have averaged 0.33 epa per play against a light front this season — best in NFL; League Avg: -0.01.
The Bills ran successful plays on 55% of rush attempts in the 1st half last season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 43%.
New York Jets Defense: Important Stats
The Jets defense allowed successful plays on 36% of pass attempts from their own territory last season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 47%.
The Jets defense has allowed successful plays on 39% of pass attempts from their own territory since the 2023 season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 47%.
The Jets defense has allowed successful plays on 36% of pass attempts in the 2nd half since the 2023 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 45%.
The Jets defense has allowed successful plays on 37% of plays with a base front since the 2023 season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: 43%.
Buffalo Bills Defense: Important Stats
The Bills defense allowed successful plays on 11% of plays with a light rush last season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 39%.
The Bills defense allowed -0.67 epa per play with a light rush last season — best in NFL; League Avg: -0.04.
The Bills defense allowed successful plays on 11% of pass attempts with a light rush last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 40%.
The Bills defense has allowed successful plays on 32% of rush attempts in the 2nd half this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 42%.
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More NFL Betting Predictions:
- Anytime & First Touchdown Scorer Predictions
- Receiving Yards Prop Predictions
- Rushing Yards Prop Predictions
- Passing Yards Prop Predictions
- Receptions Made Prop Predictions
- Rushing Attempts Prop Predictions
- Passing Touchdowns Prop Predictions
- QB Interception Prop Predictions
- Field Goals Made Prop Predictions
- NFL Betting Previews: Every Game
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