Jets vs Steelers Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 4

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Sep 30, 2022, 11:05 AM
  • The Steelers (1-2) are -3 point favorites vs the Jets (1-2)
  • Total (Over/Under): 41.5 points
  • Watch the game on CBS

The New York Jets (1-2) visit Acrisure Stadium to take on the Pittsburgh Steelers (1-2) on Oct. 2. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EDT in Pittsburgh.

The Steelers are betting favorites in Week 4, with the spread sitting at -3 (-115).

The Jets vs. Steelers Over/Under is 41.5 total points for the game.

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Jets vs. Steelers Odds, Spread, Over/Under Week 4

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Jets+3 -10541.5 -110+145
Steelers -3 -11541.5 -110-175

Jets vs. Steelers Prediction for Week 4

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts the Steelers will win this Week 4 game with 69.3% confidence.

Jets vs Steelers Spread Prediction for Week 4

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Steelers will cover the spread this Week 4 with 60.0% confidence.

Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both the Jets and Steelers, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.


Best Jets Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Jets players for Week 4, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Zach Wilson has hit the Interceptions Under in his last 7 games (+8.00 Units / 66% ROI)
  • C.J. Uzomah has hit the Receptions Over in 11 of his last 15 games (+7.30 Units / 43% ROI)
  • Zach Wilson has hit the Completions Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+6.65 Units / 54% ROI)
  • Zach Wilson has hit the Pass Attempts Under in his last 5 away games (+5.00 Units / 84% ROI)
  • Zach Wilson has hit the Passing Yards Under in his last 5 away games (+5.00 Units / 83% ROI)

Best Steelers Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Steelers players for Week 4, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Chase Claypool has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 12 of his last 16 games (+7.20 Units / 37% ROI)
  • Najee Harris has hit the Carries Over in his last 7 games at home (+7.00 Units / 87% ROI)
  • Pat Freiermuth has hit the Receptions Over in 11 of his last 16 games (+5.25 Units / 26% ROI)
  • Diontae Johnson has hit the Receptions Over in 11 of his last 18 games (+3.60 Units / 17% ROI)
  • Diontae Johnson has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 11 of his last 18 games (+2.90 Units / 14% ROI)

Receiving Props: Total Receiving Yards for Steelers vs Jets

Player Name Over Under
Chase Claypool 38.5 -115 38.5 -110
Diontae Johnson 66.5 -115 66.5 -115
George Pickens 32.5 -110 32.5 -115
Najee Harris 18.5 -115 18.5 -115
Pat Freiermuth 36.5 -110 36.5 -115

Rushing Props: Total Rushing Yards for Steelers vs Jets

Player Name Over Under
Mitchell Trubisky 8.5 -120 8.5 -110
Najee Harris 66.5 -110 66.5 -115
Breece Hall 38.5 -115 38.5 -115
Michael Carter 45.5 -115 45.5 -115
  • The New York Jets have hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 13 of their last 17 games (+8.50 Units / 44% ROI)
  • The New York Jets have hit the 2H Game Total Over in 12 of their last 17 games (+7.55 Units / 40% ROI)
  • The New York Jets have hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 11 of their last 16 games (+7.20 Units / 42% ROI)
  • The New York Jets have scored last in 11 of their last 17 games (+7.05 Units / 41% ROI)
  • The New York Jets have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 11 of their last 16 games (+5.50 Units / 31% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Steelers have covered the 4Q Spread in 11 of their last 13 games (+8.90 Units / 57% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Steelers have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 9 of their last 13 games (+8.45 Units / 61% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Steelers have hit the 1H Game Total Under in 6 of their last 7 games at home (+6.00 Units / 76% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Steelers have scored last in 7 of their last 8 games at home (+6.00 Units / 57% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Steelers have hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 8 games at home (+5.75 Units / 44% ROI)

Jets Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Jets have gone 1-2 (-1.2 Units / -36.36% ROI).

  • Jets are 1-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.2 Units / 6.67% ROI
  • Jets are 1-2 when betting the Over for -1.25 Units / -37.31% ROI
  • Jets are 2-1 when betting the Under for +0.9 Units / ROI

Steelers Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Steelers have gone 1-1 (-0.1 Units / -3.03% ROI).

  • Steelers are 1-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.65 Units / 21.67% ROI
  • Steelers are 1-2 when betting the Over for -1.2 Units / -36.36% ROI
  • Steelers are 2-1 when betting the Under for +0.9 Units / 27.27% ROI

New York Jets: Keys to the Game vs. the Pittsburgh Steelers

The Jets are winless (0-3) when forcing 2 or more turnovers since the 2021 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .732.

The Jets are 1-8 (.111) when forcing 2 or more turnovers since the 2020 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .730.

The Jets are 1-8 (.111) when making less than 7 explosive plays since the 2021 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .414.

The Jets were 1-3 (.250) vs top 10 pass offenses last season — tied for 9th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .365.

Pittsburgh Steelers: Keys to the Game vs. the New York Jets

The Steelers are 5-2 (.714) when possessing the ball longer than their opponent since the 2021 season — tied for 10th-best in NFL. The Jets has allowed an average time of possession of 33 min and 6 s since the 2021 season — fifth-highest in NFL.

The Steelers are 8-2 (.800) when not throwing an interception since the 2021 season — tied for eighth-best in NFL. The Jets have intercepted 9 passes since the 2021 season — second-fewest in NFL.

The Steelers were undefeated (5-0) vs top 10 run defenses last season — tied for best in NFL; League Avg: .429.

The Steelers were 6-1 (.857) vs top 10 run offenses last season — tied for 4th-best in NFL; League Avg: .459.

Additional Matchup Notes for New York Jets vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

The Steelers have thrown the ball 59.6% of the time since the 2021 season — fifth-highest in NFL. The Jets have allowed 7.5 yards per dropback since the 2021 season — tied for second-worst in NFL.

The Steelers are 5-2 (.714) when possessing the ball longer than their opponent since the 2021 season — tied for 10th-best in NFL. The Jets has allowed an average time of possession of 33 min and 6 s since the 2021 season — fifth-highest in NFL.

The Steelers are 8-2 (.800) when not throwing an interception since the 2021 season — tied for eighth-best in NFL. The Jets have intercepted 9 passes since the 2021 season — second-fewest in NFL.

Jets QBs have given up 62 sacks since the 2021 season — fourth-most in NFL. The Steelers have sacked the quarterback 64 times since the 2021 season — most in NFL.

The Jets have turned the ball over 7 times this season — tied for third-most in NFL. The Steelers have forced 7 turnovers this season — tied for fourth-most in NFL.

Jets RBs have gained 954 yards on 111 receptions (8.6 YPR) since the 2021 season — second-best in NFL. The Steelers have allowed 8.5 Yards Per Reception to RBs since the 2021 season — fourth-worst in NFL.

New York Jets Offense: Important Stats for Week 4

The Jets did not record a TD in 12 drives in Week 3 — tied for worst Drives Per TD rate in NFL; League Avg: 5.2.

The Jets have faced a blitz 28% of the time on 3rd and short since the 2021 season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 16%.

The Jets committed 4 turnovers in Week 3 — tied for most in NFL.

The Jets have run the ball on 9% of plays (4 carries/47 plays) on 3rd down this season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 22%.

Pittsburgh Steelers Offense: Important Stats for Week 4

The Steelers ran the ball on 27% of plays (39 carries/144 plays) in the red zone last season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 47%.

The Steelers have run 24% of their plays in their opponent’s territory in the 1st quarter since the 2021 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 41%.

The Steelers ran successful plays on 41% of pass attempts last season — 3rd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 46%.

The Steelers have run 5% of their plays in the red zone in the 1st quarter since the 2021 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 13%.

New York Jets Defense: Important Stats for Week 4

The Jets defense allowed 15.8 points per game to opposing offenses (268 points / 17 games) in the 1st half last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 10.9.

The Jets defense allowed first downs on 52% of rush attempts on 3rd and short last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 69%.

The Jets defense allowed an average of 26.2 fantasy points per game as a unit to RBs last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 18.0.

The Jets defense has allowed 15.6 points per game to opposing offenses (312 points / 20 games) in the 1st half since the 2021 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 10.8.

Pittsburgh Steelers Defense: Important Stats for Week 4

The Steelers defense sacked opposing QBs on 9% of pass attempts (55/618) last season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 6%.

The Steelers defense allowed 20+ yard rushes 24 times last season — most in NFL.

The Steelers defense has allowed 20+ yard rushes 27 times since the 2021 season — most in NFL.

The Steelers defense averaged 3.2 sacks per game last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 2.3.

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.