Lions vs Texans Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 10

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Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud (7) looks to throw a pass during the first half of an NFL football game against the Tennessee Titans, Sunday, Dec. 31, 2023, in Houston. (AP Photo/Eric Christian Smith)

(AP Photo/Eric Christian Smith)

BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Nov 06, 2024, 2:02 PM

The Lions are -3.5 point favorites vs the Texans
Total (Over/Under): 49 points
Watch this game on NBC | UNIV | TELX

The Detroit Lions (7-1-0) visit NRG Stadium to take on the Houston Texans (6-3-0) on Nov. 10. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:20pm EST in Houston, TX.

The Lions are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -3.5 (-110).

The Lions vs. Texans Over/Under is 49 total points for the game.

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Lions vs. Texans Odds, Spread, Over/Under

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Lions	-3.5 -110	49 -110	-190
Texans	+3.5 -110	49 -110	+155

Lions vs. Texans Prediction

The winning team model predicts the Lions will win this game with 60.0% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

Lions vs Texans Spread Prediction

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Texans will cover the spread with 57.7% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Lions players this playoff game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Lions Player Prop Bets Today

Jahmyr Gibbs has hit the Longest Rush Over in 8 of his last 9 games (+6.95 Units / 65% ROI)
Jahmyr Gibbs has hit the Longest Reception Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+6.45 Units / 53% ROI)
Jahmyr Gibbs has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 13 of his last 19 games (+6.40 Units / 30% ROI)
Jahmyr Gibbs has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 13 of his last 19 games (+5.85 Units / 25% ROI)
Jared Goff has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 8 of his last 10 away games (+5.50 Units / 44% ROI)

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Texans players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Texans Player Prop Best Bets Today

Stefon Diggs has hit the Longest Reception Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+7.70 Units / 59% ROI)
Stefon Diggs has hit the Receptions Under in 12 of his last 18 games (+5.45 Units / 25% ROI)
Nico Collins has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 10 of his last 14 games (+5.40 Units / 33% ROI)
C.J. Stroud has hit the Interceptions Under in 13 of his last 18 games (+5.35 Units / 20% ROI)
C.J. Stroud has hit the Carries Over in 9 of his last 12 games (+5.30 Units / 33% ROI)

Lions Best Bets:

The Detroit Lions have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 17 of their last 19 games (+14.80 Units / 63% ROI)
The Detroit Lions have covered the Spread in 17 of their last 21 games (+12.55 Units / 54% ROI)
The Detroit Lions have covered the 1H Spread in 16 of their last 21 games (+10.30 Units / 43% ROI)
The Detroit Lions have hit the Moneyline in 16 of their last 21 games (+8.65 Units / 19% ROI)
The Detroit Lions have hit the Game Total Over in 15 of their last 21 games (+8.35 Units / 36% ROI)

Texans Best Bets:

The Houston Texans have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 9 of their last 10 games at home (+7.80 Units / 69% ROI)
The Houston Texans have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 12 of their last 20 games (+7.55 Units / 28% ROI)
The Houston Texans have covered the 2Q Spread in 13 of their last 20 games (+4.60 Units / 19% ROI)
The Houston Texans have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 6 of their last 10 games at home (+2.95 Units / 27% ROI)
The Houston Texans have scored last in 4 of their last 5 games at home (+2.80 Units / 48% ROI)

Lions Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Lions art 7-1 (+5.9 Units / 67.82% ROI).

Lions are 7-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.45 Units / 16.39% ROI
Lions are 4-4 when betting the Over for -0.45 Units / -5.08% ROI
Lions are 4-4 when betting the Under for -0.4 Units / ROI

Texans Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Texans are 3-5 (-2.4 Units / -24.74% ROI).

Texans are 6-3 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.7 Units / 16.17% ROI
Texans are 2-7 when betting the Over for -5.8 Units / -58% ROI
Texans are 7-2 when betting the Under for +4.8 Units / 48.98% ROI

Detroit Lions: Keys to the Game vs. the Houston Texans

The Lions are undefeated (3-0) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times since the 2023 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .253.

The Lions are undefeated (7-0) when allowing less than 5 explosive passes since the 2023 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .572.

The Lions are 4-2 (.667) when rushing less than 25 times since the 2023 season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: .269.

The Lions are undefeated (4-0) when sacking the QB less than 3 times this season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .386.

Houston Texans: Keys to the Game vs. the Detroit Lions

The Texans are 3-2 (.600) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times since the 2023 season — T-2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: .253.

The Texans are 12-4 (.750) when within 7 points at the two minute warning since the 2023 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .500.

The Texans are 12-3 (.800) when averaging more than 5 yards on first down plays since the 2023 season — T-2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: .576.

The Texans were 10-3 (.769) when allowing less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities last season — T-3rd-best in NFL; League Avg: .570.

Additional Matchup Notes for Detroit Lions vs. Houston Texans

The Texans have a third down conversion rate of 26.1% on 3rd and 10+ YTG since the 2023 season — best in NFL. The Lions defense has allowed a third down conversion rate of 22.8% on 3rd and 10+ YTG since the 2023 season — 3rd-worst in NFL.

The Texans have run successful plays on just 36.5% of rush attempts against a base front since the 2023 season — 4th-worst in NFL. The Lions have allowed successful plays on just 38.2% of rush attempts with a base front since the 2023 season — T-4th-best in NFL.

The Lions have run successful plays on just 33.3% of pass attempts against a light front this season — 3rd-worst in NFL. The Texans have pressured opposing QBs on 37.4% of pass attempts with a light front this season — 3rd-best in NFL.

The Lions have thrown the ball just 45.1% of the time this season — 4th-lowest in NFL. The Texans have allowed just 5.4 yards per dropback this season — T-best in NFL.

The Lions have averaged 2.0 passing TDs per game this season — T-5th-best in NFL. The Texans have allowed 2.1 passing touchdowns per game this season — T-worst in NFL.

Detroit Lions Offense: Important Stats

The Lions have run 25% of their plays in the red zone in the 1st half this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 14%.

The Lions went for it on fourth down 35% of the time last season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 20%.

The Lions have faced a blitz 24% of the time this season — 2nd-highest in NFL; League Avg: 15%.

The Lions averaged 0.43 epa per play on first read passes last season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 0.20.

Houston Texans Offense: Important Stats

The Texans ran successful plays on 29% of plays against a stacked front last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 43%.

The Texans ran successful plays on 25% of rush attempts against a stacked front last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 42%.

The Texans ran successful plays on 23% of pass attempts in Week 9 — worst in NFL; League Avg: 46%.

The Texans have run successful plays on 30% of plays in the 3rd quarter this season — 3rd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 43%.

Detroit Lions Defense: Important Stats

The Lions defense has allowed a passer rating of just 44.7 in the red zone (36 Pass Attempts) this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 94.3.

The Lions defense has allowed 17.1 receptions per game (137/8) to WRs this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 11.6.

The Lions defense has allowed 212.9 yards from scrimmage per game to WRs this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 150.0.

The Lions defense has blitzed on 52% of plays on 3rd and long since the 2023 season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 28%.

Houston Texans Defense: Important Stats

The Texans defense have allowed 10 TDs that were 20+ yards this season — most in NFL.

The Texans defense allowed a passer rating of just 64.7 in the red zone (63 Pass Attempts) last season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 93.0.

The Texans defense allowed successful plays on 34% of rush attempts on motion plays last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 42%.

The Texans defense has allowed a Completion Pct of just 55% (152 completions/277 attempts) this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 65%.

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