- A key number associated with Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes.
- The spot in which to fade home favorites.
- An important over/under number where bettors should take underdogs.
As the NFL season draws closer, most bettors seek the same goal – maximizing and subsequently boosting their bankroll.
Bettors can accomplish this a number of different ways. However, one popular method is identifying historically profitable systems and matching them to teams each week.
Below, I have outlined five systems bettors can deploy throughout the season. To pair, I’ll identify the weekly matches to simplify the customer experience using NFL odds.
NFL Betting System No. 1: Underdogs with Low Total
This system builds off the theory that when the under does well, so does the underdog.
Inclusive of the 2023-24 NFL season, underdogs in games with a total less than or equal to 42 points are 205-150-10 (57.7%) since the 2018-19 season.
The system does even better when it’s a divisional matchup. Over the last five seasons, divisional underdogs with a total less than or equal to 42 are 59.6% ATS (84-57-4).
Week 18 Matches: Ravens, Jets, Panthers, Giants, Titans, Chiefs, Browns, Broncos.
NFL Betting System No. 2: Underdogs off Blowout Loss
The public often overestimates how bad teams are when the last contest saw them blown out.
Historically, it’s in the bettors’ interest to bet on teams coming off an embarrassing defeat.
Since the 2003-04 season, teams that lose by 20 or more points and are underdogs in the next game are 275-222-14 ATS. For bettors, the historical return on investment is 7.1%.
Week 18 Matches: Titans, Panthers.
NFL Betting System No. 3: Road Dog to Home Favorite
For clarity, I recommend betting against teams who find themselves a home favorite a week after closing a road underdog.
The theory here is that there’s little separating the two teams if the status changes. Additionally, one criterion I added is that the home favorite should have failed to reach the postseason last year.
Teams that fit the criteria are 381-451-21 (45.8%) ATS in weeks two through 17, inclusive of the 2023-24 season.
Week 18 Matches: Broncos, Bears, Vikings, Falcons, Jets
NFL Betting System No. 4: Patrick Mahomes Favorite of -3.5 or Higher
Although it’s a comparably small sample, bettors should fade Patrick Mahomes when he’s starting, and the Chiefs are listed at -3.5 or higher.
For his career, the Texas Tech product is 33-39-2 ATS under this criterion. Conversely, when Mahomes is listed between -3 and +10, he’s 15-6-1 ATS.
The Chiefs are currently underdogs against the Chargers in Week 18, although it’s expected Mahomes won’t play. If he does, expect the line to move.
NFL Betting System No. 5: Home Dog to Road Favorite
In the same spirit of the third system, bettors are wise to fade teams who go from a home dog one week to a road favorite the next.
Dating back to 2005-06, betting against these teams yields a 55.3% ATS success rate. Over that span, a $100 bettor would finish up $1,716 for a 7.6% return on investment.
Just in the 2023-24 season, teams fitting this system are 9-6-2 against the spread.
Week 18 Matches: No matches.
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