- NFL Coach of the Year Odds currently price Mike McDaniel (+750) as the favorite.
- Four of the last six COY winners have been in their first year with a team.
NFL Coach of the Year is one of the most fascinating betting markets to track every year because of how much human psychology is at the center of the market.
When an NFL team is successful, how does the public credit get apportioned? Is it because of the quarterback? The head coach? The defense? The front office and contracts? The brilliant young offensive coordinator?
Figuring out which teams are primed for a breakout is the first step to betting NFL Coach of the Year odds, but you also need to find a target where the head coach is the most likely beneficiary of their success.
NFL Coach of the Year Odds
| Coach | Current Odds | Preseason Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Mike McDaniel | +750 | +2000 |
| Dan Campbell | +900 | +800 |
| Arthur Smith | +900 | +1400 |
| Doug Pederson | +1000 | +2000 |
| John Harbaugh | +1400 | +2500 |
| Matt Lafleur | +1500 | +1600 |
| Dennis Allen | +1600 | +2000 |
| Kevin Stefanski | +1600 | +3000 |
| Robert Saleh | +2000 | +1600 |
| Mike Tomlin | +2000 | +2000 |
| Shane Steichen | +2000 | +2200 |
| Kyle Shanahan | +2000 | +3000 |
| Sean McVay | +2000 | +3000 |
| Todd Bowles | +2000 | +3000 |
| Pete Carroll | +3000 | +2000 |
| DeMeco Ryans | +3000 | +2500 |
| Frank Reich | +3000 | +2500 |
| Nick Sirianni | +3500 | +2200 |
| Sean Payton | +4000 | +1100 |
| Brandon Staley | +4000 | +2500 |
| Zac Taylor | +6600 | +2500 |
| Matt Eberflus | +10000 | +1400 |
NFL Coach of the Year: Dan Campbell Remains Near Top of the Board
Lions betting hype has been one of the defining flavors of this NFL offseason, so it’s unsurprising to see third-year head coach Dan Campbell near the top of the NFL Coach of the Year table.
The Lions have a powerful, go-for-it offense and play in a division that’s absolutely up for grabs, now that Aaron Rodgers has departed. If the Lions are a 10-win NFC North champion, Campbell will be seen as the primary architect of that outcome and will be given credit in Coach of the Year conversations.
33% of money (most) is on Dan Campbell to win Coach of the Year at @BetMGM.@Lions are the biggest liability to win Super Bowl.
What could go wrong? pic.twitter.com/1ZPhOp8n5Q
— John Ewing (@johnewing) July 19, 2023
The downside of the Lions hype is expectations. The aspect that most NFL Coaches of the Year have in common is that they exceeded modest expectations en route to a likely playoff berth. With the Lions already expected to be great, it’s hard to deliver a result that makes voters feel that sense of accomplishment that marks most successful COY candidates.
On the other hand, this is the Detroit Lions we’re talking about. Perhaps high-level modern success for the Lions is uniquely potent for Campbell.
First-Year NFL Coaches Are En Vogue
The modern media machine has increased the churn of NFL head coaching positions to a nauseating pace, with at least half the league turning over every three or four years.
That means one of the most reliable pathways to winning NFL Coach of the Year is to come in as a first-year head coach and find immediate success.
Most recently, this was the case for Giants head coach Brian Daboll in 2022. Four of the last six NFL Coaches of the Year have been in their freshman campaigns.
The market knows this, which is why first-year Broncos coach Sean Payton was initially right behind Campbell in the table at +1100.
NFL Coach of the Year History
| Year | AP NFL Coach of the Year | Regular Season Record | Year With Team |
| 2022 | Brian Daboll | 9-7-1 | 1st |
| 2021 | Mike Vrabel | 12-5 | 4th |
| 2020 | Kevin Stefanski | 11-5 | 1st |
| 2019 | John Harbaugh | 14-2 | 12th |
| 2018 | Matt Nagy | 12-4 | 1st |
| 2017 | Sean McVay | 11-5 | 1st |
| 2016 | Jason Garrett | 13-3 | 7th |
| 2015 | Ron Rivera (2) | 15-1 | 5th |
| 2014 | Bruce Arians (2) | 11-5 | 2nd |
| 2013 | Ron Rivera | 12-4 | 3rd |
| 2012 | Bruce Arians | 9-3 | Interim |
| 2011 | Jim Harbaugh | 13-3 | 1st |
| 2010 | Bill Belichick (3) | 14-2 | 11th |
| 2009 | Marvin Lewis | 10-6 | 7th |
| 2008 | Mike Smith | 11-5 | 1st |
| 2007 | Bill Belichick (2) | 16-0 | 8th |
| 2006 | Sean Payton | 10-6 | 1st |
| 2005 | Lovie Smith | 11-5 | 2nd |
| 2004 | Marty Schottenheimer | 12-4 | 3rd |
| 2003 | Bill Belichick | 14-2 | 4th |
| 2002 | Andy Reid | 12-4 | 4th |
| 2001 | Dick Jauron | 13-3 | 3rd |
| 2000 | Jim Haslett | 10-6 | 1st |
| 1999 | Dick Vermeil | 13-3 | 3rd |
| 1998 | Dan Reeves (2) | 14-2 | 2nd |
| 1997 | Jim Fassel | 10-5-1 | 1st |
| 1996 | Dom Capers | 12-4 | 2nd |
| 1995 | Ray Rhodes | 10-6 | 1st |
| 1994 | Bill Parcells (2) | 10-6 | 2nd |
| 1993 | Dan Reeves | 11-5 | 1st |
| 1992 | Bill Cowher | 11-5 | 1st |
| 1991 | Wayne Fontes | 12-4 | 4th |
| 1990 | Jimmy Johnson | 7-9 | 2nd |
| 1989 | Lindy Infante | 10-6 | 2nd |
| 1988 | Mike Ditka (2) | 12-4 | 7th |
| 1987 | Jim Mora | 12-3 | 2nd |
| 1986 | Bill Parcells | 14-2 | 4th |
| 1985 | Mike Ditka | 15-1 | 4th |
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