NFL Futures: Strategies for Betting Super Bowl Futures

Picking a Super Bowl futures winner before the NFL season can often prove a daunting task. 

But this process can be simplified with a few steps that, historically, have helped narrow the list of teams from 32 down to a handful. 

Let’s dive into my futures betting tips and strategies based on NFL odds. 

NFL Futures Betting: Tips for Betting the Super Bowl

The Rookie Quarterback Theory

It can’t be overstated how much the quarterback’s contract drives a team’s ability to construct a Super Bowl-winning roster. 

Since the NFL restructured the rookie scale in 2011, teams with effective quarterbacks on rookie contracts have consistently been among the league’s most effective clubs. 

Think about it. If a team is getting 80% of the production of an All-Pro quarterback but at only 20% of the cost … how could you not be successful? 

There’s so much extra money for those teams to spend on building out the roster’s middle class of playmakers. 

It pays to consider which teams fit the bill of a potentially high-achieving team with an effective, underpaid quarterback. In 2025, that list includes:

• Philadelphia Eagles
• San Francisco 49ers
• Washington Commanders
• Green Bay Packers
• Los Angeles Chargers
• Houston Texans
• Denver Broncos
• Chicago Bears
• New England Patriots

I bold the Eagles, Packers and Chargers largely because Jalen Hurts, Jordan Love and Justin Herbert aren’t currently on rookie contracts. 

However, Hurts counts only 7.8% against the cap, Love counts only 10% against the cap, and Herbert counts only 13.5% against the cap next season, per overthecap.com. 

Other quarterbacks such as C.J. Stroud (3.6%) and Jayden Daniels (2.9%) offer greater flexibility. However, the three aforementioned players still offer some flexibility. 

Long Shots Rarely Capture Super Bowl Wins

This isn’t to say a preseason longshot can’t experience postseason success: the Commanders reaching the NFC Championship in 2024-25 proved that theory. 

But rarely do these preseason longshots make it to the Super Bowl and capture an outright win. 

Dating back to the 2014 season, 10 of 11 Super Bowl winners owned preseason odds of +1200 or shorter to win the Super Bowl. 

The lone exception? The Philadelphia Eagles (+4000) all the way back in 2017. 

Let’s take it a step further: Of the 10 teams that carried odds of +1200 or shorter since 2014, six owned odds of +900 or shorter. 

This season, five teams fit the profile of a team listed at +1200 or shorter: the Eagles, Ravens, Bills, Chiefs and Lions. 

If you’re applying the logic that 11 straight winners have closed with +4000 or shorter odds to win the Super Bowl, you can still narrow the list down to 16 teams. 

Consider Year-Over-Year Regression Metrics

Three factors are worth calling out here: turnovers, record in one-score games and a team’s defensive record. 

All three are volatile stats from one season to another. From a turnover standpoint, teams have historically experienced varying fortune. 

For example, the Giants produced 1.8 takeaways per game in 2023. For the 2024 season, New York’s takeaways dropped to 0.9 per game. 

Conversely, the Eagles went from one turnover per game in 2023 to 1.9 in 2024. 

In terms of a team’s record in one-score games – defined as games decided by eight points or fewer – these games are generally coin flip outcomes. 

But teams experience varying degrees of fortune. In 2024, the Commanders finished 8-1 in such games while the 49ers finished 2-6. 

Generally, teams that rely on wins from these games regress the following year, with some exceptions. 

Lastly, a team’s defensive record generally proves quite volatile annually. 

The Eagles, winners of the 2024-25 Super Bowl, are a perfect example. In 2023, Philadelphia finished 29th in defensive DVOA. In 2024, they led the league in that metric. 

Defense is often a driving force of championship winners, so bettors should consider that teams with bad defenses could take a step forward the next year and contend.