- The Buffalo Bills (-300) are predicted to win the AFC East.
- Buffalo has won the division five years in a row.
- My initial AFC East prediction is for the Patriots (+750) to win the division.
History repeated itself in 2024 with the Bills capturing a fifth straight division title before falling in the AFC Championship.
After closing as the second choice to win the division in 2024, Buffalo now opens as a -300 favorite to win the division in 2025. That price implies a probability of 75%.
Based on the current set of odds, the Dolphins (+550) are the most likely to unseat Buffalo, while the Patriots (+750) and Jets (+1500) qualify as longshots.
Here’s a look at the NFL odds for the AFC East division winner and my AFC East prediction.
AFC East Odds, 2025 Division Winner
- Buffalo Bills: -300
- Miami Dolphins: +550
- New England Patriots: +750
- New York Jets: +1500
AFC East Prediction
Based on their improved coaching staff and potential defensive improvement, I predict the New England Patriots (+750) win the AFC East in 2025.
While I ultimately believe the Bills repeat as division winners, they’re not bettable. Tying up bankroll on a -300 bet is ill-advised and there are no other teams usable as a parlay piece.
As a result, it’s basically a choice between the three remaining teams from a betting standpoint.
Enter New England, the last team not named Buffalo to win an AFC East title. The offseason saw Mike Vrabel replace Jerod Mayo, with Josh McDaniels returning as offensive coordinator.
Both are strong upgrades annually, but I still have questions about New England. One of those being no obvious improvements arrived on the offensive line, which struggled in 2024.
Of course, it’s also an O-Line that lost 42 adjusted games to injury, which could explain the troubles.
If there’s improvement along the line, it offers Drake Maye a chance to build off his 2024 success.
From Weeks 9-17, 15 quarterbacks completed 320 or more plays. Maye ranked sixth in completion percentage and fifth in completion percentage over expected, per rbsdm.com.
Travel back further to consider Weeks 6-8 – two full starts and six attempts in Week 8 – and bettors will find Maye ranked 13th and 11th, respectively, out of 25 quarterbacks.
If Maye retains those metrics into his second year, it essentially puts the onus on New England’s defense to inform season-long success.
Stefon Diggs, Carlton Davis, Harold Landry, Robert Spillane and Milton Williams are the headline signings from free agency.
That, along with a comparably easier set of 2025 offensive opponents, gives the defense a chance to improve from 30th in defensive DVOA.
Last year, the average offensive DVOA rating of New England’s opponents was 15.3. Based on 2024 ratings, this year’s schedule comes in at 16.83.
Some of that rating is bound to fluctuate, but the bottom line is that an easier set of opponents is expected.
For a team that underperformed last season – four wins on five expected wins, thanks to a 1-4 record in games decided by under three points – there’s intrigue at the current price.
Potentially more to come after the NFL Draft and as free agency continues.
AFC East Standings & Live Odds, 2025
| Position | Team | Preseason Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Buffalo Bills | -300 |
| 2 | Miami Dolphins | +550 |
| 3 | New England Patriots | +750 |
| 4 | New York Jets | +1500 |
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