- The Packers are a 5.5-point home favorite against the 49ers.
- The 49ers have won each of their last eight games following a home loss.
- My Packers vs. 49ers prediction is to use San Francisco in a teaser.
Following a shock home loss to the Seahawks, the 49ers travel to Green Bay for a meeting with the Packers.
The 49ers’ two-game winning streak came to end in brutal fashion on Sunday. Playing with a rest disadvantage, San Francisco surrendered a touchdown on the final drive to fall 20-17.
Green Bay needed some luck to win in Week 11. With a 20-19 lead, the Packers blocked a potential Bears game-winning field goal to move to 5-1 in their last six games.
Bet on Packers vs. 49ers and other NFL matchups with up-to-date NFL odds.
NFL Week 12 Odds: Packers vs. 49ers
Packers vs. 49ers Prediction
[Writer’s Note: This analysis was written earlier in the week before it was announced Brock Purdy and Nick Bosa would miss Sunday’s game. Following that news, I have no interest using San Francisco as a teaser leg].
Based on Kyle Shanahan’s strong record as an underdog and the 49ers’ return to health, my Packers vs. 49ers prediction is to tease San Francisco (+8.5).
The current spread is such an intriguing number, especially when you factor in Shanahan is 17-6 ATS as a dog of +4 or smaller and 19-4 against a six-point tease.
When Shanahan is a dog within the conference, he’s 11-4 ATS at +4 or smaller and 12-3 ATS against a six-point teaser.
All of those signs point to taking San Francisco on Sunday, especially when you factor in Green Bay’s lucky result against Chicago.
I also worry about the matchup for Green Bay’s rush defense against a strong 49ers ground game.
San Francisco (4.88) ranks second in adjusted line yards and fourth in yards per rush attempt (5.0).
Defensively, the Packers rank 19th in adjusted line yards allowed while sitting 15th in opponent yards per rush attempt.
The worry for the Packers is they’ve posted that record without facing many strong rush offenses.
Through 10 games, the Packers played only three teams 10th or better in adjusted line yards. Their record in those games is 1-2.
At the same time, I’m concerned about San Francisco’s run defense.
The 49ers rank 19th in rush defense DVOA and face a Packers unit third in the corresponding offensive category, per ftnfantasy.com.
Nick Bosa also could miss out on Sunday’s game, which would further hamper the San Francisco run defense.
As a result, I’m more comfortable teasing the 49ers up through three key numbers rather than taking +2.5. For a pairing, check out my Dolphins vs. Patriots prediction.
Betting Packers vs. 49ers: NFL Public Betting
| Bets% (Spread) | Money% (Spread) | Bets% (ML) | Money% (ML) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 49ers | 45% | 40% | 59% | 41% |
| Packers | 55% | 60% | 41% | 59% |
