Patriots vs Dolphins Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 1

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Sep 11, 2022, 8:16 AM
  • The Dolphins (0-0) are -3.5 point favorites vs the Patriots (0-0)
  • Watch the game on CBS
  • Total (Over/Under): 45.5 points

The New England Patriots (0-0) visit Hard Rock Stadium to take on the Miami Dolphins (0-0) on Sep. 11. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm ET in Miami Gardens.

The Dolphins are betting favorites in Week 1, with the spread sitting at -3.5 (-110).

The Patriots vs. Dolphins Over/Under is 45.5 total points for the game.

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Patriots vs. Dolphins Odds, Spread, Over/Under Week 1

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
New England Patriots+3.5 -11045.5 -110+150
Miami Dolphins -3.5 -11045.5 -110-185

Patriots vs. Dolphins Prediction for Week 1

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Dolphins will win this Week 1 NFL matchup with 52.0% confidence.

This prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both the Patriots and Dolphins, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.


Best Patriots Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Patriots players for Week 1, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Jonnu Smith has hit the Receptions Under in his last 9 games (+9.25 Units / 59% ROI)
  • Jakobi Meyers has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 7 away games (+7.00 Units / 78% ROI)
  • Kendrick Bourne has hit the Receptions Over in 9 of his last 13 games (+6.35 Units / 43% ROI)
  • Damien Harris has hit the Carries Under in 8 of his last 10 games (+5.55 Units / 45% ROI)
  • Hunter Henry has hit the Receptions Under in 8 of his last 10 games (+5.50 Units / 42% ROI)

Best Dolphins Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Dolphins players for Week 1, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Myles Gaskin has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 12 of his last 14 games (+9.55 Units / 54% ROI)
  • Myles Gaskin has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 7 of his last 8 games (+5.80 Units / 58% ROI)
  • Jaylen Waddle has hit the Receptions Over in 10 of his last 15 games (+5.50 Units / 32% ROI)
  • Tua Tagovailoa has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 8 of his last 10 games (+5.40 Units / 42% ROI)
  • Mike Gesicki has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 8 of his last 10 games (+5.15 Units / 40% ROI)

First Touchdown Scorer Bet for Dolphins vs Patriots

Player Name 1st TD Odds
Tyreek Hill +650
Jaylen Waddle +700
Damien Harris +800
Chase Edmonds +900
Mike Gesicki +1000

Anytime Touchdown Scorer Bet for Dolphins vs Patriots

Player Name Anytime TD Odds
Tyreek Hill -125
Damien Harris -105
Jaylen Waddle +100
Chase Edmonds +125
Hunter Henry +125

Receiving Props: Total Receiving Yards for Dolphins vs Patriots

Player Name Over Under
DeVante Parker 43.5 -110 43.5 -115
Jakobi Meyers 45.5 -110 45.5 -115
Hunter Henry 31.5 -115 31.5 -115
Tyreek Hill 65.5 -115 65.5 -115
Mike Gesicki 29.5 -115 29.5 -115

Rushing Props: Total Rushing Yards for Dolphins vs Patriots

Player Name Over Under
Mac Jones 8.5 -115 8.5 -115
Tua Tagovailoa 9.5 -110 9.5 -115
Chase Edmonds 38.5 -115 38.5 -115
Raheem Mostert 37.5 -110 37.5 -115
Damien Harris 44.5 -115 44.5 -110
  • The New England Patriots have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 13 of their last 18 games (+11.60 Units / 47% ROI)
  • The New England Patriots have covered the 4Q Spread in 11 of their last 15 games (+6.90 Units / 41% ROI)
  • The New England Patriots have covered the 2H Spread in 11 of their last 15 games (+6.65 Units / 40% ROI)
  • The New England Patriots have hit the 2H Moneyline in 9 of their last 12 games (+6.60 Units / 33% ROI)
  • The New England Patriots have hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 11 of their last 16 games (+6.40 Units / 35% ROI)
  • The Miami Dolphins have hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 9 games (+10.50 Units / 62% ROI)
  • The Miami Dolphins have hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 13 of their last 16 games (+9.80 Units / 56% ROI)
  • The Miami Dolphins have hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 11 of their last 16 games (+6.30 Units / 34% ROI)
  • The Miami Dolphins have covered the 2H Spread in 7 of their last 8 games (+5.95 Units / 68% ROI)
  • The Miami Dolphins have hit the 2H Moneyline in 6 of their last 8 games (+5.50 Units / 45% ROI)

New England Patriots: Keys to the Game vs. the Miami Dolphins

The Patriots were 2-4 (.333) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times last season — tied for 3rd-best in NFL; League Avg: .165.

The Patriots were undefeated (5-0) when not committing any turnovers last season — tied for best in NFL; League Avg: .731.

The Patriots were 7-1 (.875) when allowing less than 100 rushing yards last season — tied for best in NFL; League Avg: .674.

The Patriots were winless (0-3) when rushing less than 20 times last season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .121.

Miami Dolphins: Keys to the Game vs. the New England Patriots

The Dolphins were winless (0-6) when allowing 27 or more points last season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .198.

The Dolphins were winless (0-4) when rushing less than 20 times last season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .121.

The Dolphins were 5-6 (.455) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team last season — tied for 10th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .497.

The Dolphins were 6-3 (.667) when the opposing team converts less than 55% of its red zone chances into touchdowns last season — tied for 8th-best in NFL; League Avg: .533.

Additional Matchup Notes for New England Patriots vs. Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins scored on 27.8% of their drives in the first half last season — fifth-worst in NFL. The Patriots defense allowed scores on 32.2% of opponent drives in the first half last season — fourth-best in NFL.

The Dolphins threw for just 6.4 yards per attempt last season — fifth-worst in NFL. The Patriots allowed just 5.9 yards per dropback last season — second-best in NFL.

Dolphins WRs have just 126.2 receiving yards per game since the 2020 season — third-worst in NFL. The Patriots have averaged just 138.5 receiving yards per game allowed to WRs since the 2020 season — second-best in NFL.

The Patriots went three and out on 15.7% of their drives last season — fourth-best in NFL. Dolphins forced three and outs on 17.5% of opponent drives last season — tied for third-worst in NFL.

Patriots RBs averaged 10.5 yards after the catch in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — tied for best in NFL. The Dolphins allowed 9.9 yards after catch per reception to RBs in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — third-worst in NFL.

The Patriots have 36 touchdown passes since the 2020 season — tied for third-fewest in NFL. The Dolphins have allowed 44 passing TDs since the 2020 season — fifth-fewest in NFL.

New England Patriots Offense: Important Stats for Week 1

The Patriots started 6 drives inside their own 10 yard line last season — 2nd-fewest in NFL.

The Patriots started 4 drives inside their own 20 yard line in the 1st quarter last season — tied for fewest in NFL.

The Patriots ran successful plays on 59% of pass attempts in the 1st quarter last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 46%.

The Patriots ran successful plays on 40% of pass attempts on passes when their QB was pressured last season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 30%.

Miami Dolphins Offense: Important Stats for Week 1

The Dolphins ran successful plays on 32% of rush attempts in the 1st half last season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 43%.

The Dolphins ran successful plays on 31% of rush attempts in the 1st quarter last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 42%.

The Dolphins ran successful plays on 80% of pass attempts in the 1st quarter in Week 18 — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 45%.

The Dolphins ran successful plays on 33% of rush attempts last season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 43%.

New England Patriots Defense: Important Stats for Week 1

The Patriots defense allowed 7 rushing TDs on 73 carries (10.4 Carries Per TD) in the red zone last season — best Carries Per TD rate in NFL; League Avg: 5.2.

The Patriots defense allowed a passer rating of just 73.4 (539 Pass Attempts) last season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 90.8.

The Patriots defense allowed just 6.6 points per game to opposing offenses (112 points / 17 games) in the 2nd half last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 10.9.

The Patriots defense allowed 9 rushing TDs on 450 carries (50 Carries Per TD) last season — best Carries Per TD rate in NFL; League Avg: 27.9.

Miami Dolphins Defense: Important Stats for Week 1

25% of the plays ran against the Dolphins were in the red zone in the 4th quarter last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 17%.

The Dolphins defense blitzed 258 times last season — 2nd-most in NFL.

The Dolphins defense blitzed on 24% of plays last season — 2nd-highest in NFL; League Avg: 15%.

The Dolphins defense blitzed on 20% of plays on 1st down last season — 2nd-highest in NFL; League Avg: 11%.

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.