Patriots vs Vikings Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 12, TNF

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Nov 24, 2022, 9:30 AM
  • The Vikings (8-2) are -3 point favorites vs the Patriots (6-4)
  • Total (Over/Under): 42.5 points
  • Watch the game on NBC

The New England Patriots (6-4) visit U.S. Bank Stadium to take on the Minnesota Vikings (8-2) on Nov. 24. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:20pm EST in Minneapolis on Thanksgiving.

The Vikings are betting favorites in Week 12, with the spread sitting at -2.5 (-115).

The Patriots vs. Vikings Over/Under is 42.5 total points for the game.

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Patriots vs. Vikings Odds, Spread, Over/Under Week 12

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Patriots+2.5 -10542.5 -110+120
Vikings -2.5 -11542.5 -110-145

Patriots vs. Vikings Prediction for Week 12

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts the Vikings will win this Week 12 game with 65.8% confidence.

Patriots vs Vikings Spread Prediction for Week 12

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Vikings will cover the spread this Week 12 with 58.0% confidence.

Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both the Patriots and Vikings, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.


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Best Patriots Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Patriots players for Week 12, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Jakobi Meyers has hit the Receptions Over in 9 of his last 12 games (+6.40 Units / 45% ROI)
  • Mac Jones has hit the Completions Over in 9 of his last 12 games (+5.80 Units / 44% ROI)
  • Mac Jones has hit the Interceptions Over in 6 of his last 7 away games (+5.10 Units / 61% ROI)
  • Hunter Henry has hit the Receptions Under in 10 of his last 13 games (+4.75 Units / 24% ROI)
  • Jakobi Meyers has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 9 of his last 13 games (+4.55 Units / 32% ROI)

Best Vikings Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Vikings players for Week 12, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Alexander Mattison has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 6 of his last 7 games (+4.80 Units / 62% ROI)
  • Irv Smith has hit the Receptions Over in his last 4 games (+4.45 Units / 102% ROI)
  • Alexander Mattison has hit the Receptions Under in his last 4 games (+4.00 Units / 50% ROI)
  • K.J. Osborn has hit the Receptions Under in 8 of his last 12 games (+3.80 Units / 24% ROI)
  • Alexander Mattison has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 7 of his last 10 games (+3.10 Units / 24% ROI)

First Touchdown Scorer Bet for Vikings vs Patriots

Player Name 1st TD Odds
Dalvin Cook +600
Justin Jefferson +750
T.J. Hockenson +800
Rhamondre Stevenson +800
Adam Thielen +1100

Anytime Touchdown Scorer Bet for Vikings vs Patriots

Player Name Anytime TD Odds
Dalvin Cook -105
Rhamondre Stevenson +120
Justin Jefferson +120
T.J. Hockenson +138
Adam Thielen +180

Receiving Props: Total Receiving Yards for Vikings vs Patriots

Player Name Over Under
Adam Thielen 43.5 -115 43.5 -120
Justin Jefferson 86.5 -115 86.5 -115
K.J. Osborn 23.5 -115 23.5 -115
Rhamondre Stevenson 28.5 -115 28.5 -115
Dalvin Cook 13.5 -110 13.5 -120

Rushing Props: Total Rushing Yards for Vikings vs Patriots

Player Name Over Under
Mac Jones 7.5 -105 7.5 -125
Rhamondre Stevenson 58.5 -115 58.5 -115
Dalvin Cook 74.5 -115 74.5 -115
Kirk Cousins 2.5 -125 2.5 -105
  • The New England Patriots have hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 9 of their last 10 games (+8.75 Units / 77% ROI)
  • The New England Patriots have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 11 of their last 14 games (+7.70 Units / 50% ROI)
  • The New England Patriots have hit the 1H Game Total Under in 8 of their last 10 games (+5.70 Units / 53% ROI)
  • The New England Patriots have covered the 2Q Spread in 7 of their last 9 games (+5.10 Units / 51% ROI)
  • The New England Patriots have covered the Spread in 6 of their last 7 games (+4.90 Units / 65% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Vikings have covered the 4Q Spread in 10 of their last 11 games (+9.00 Units / 74% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Vikings have hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 11 games (+8.30 Units / 41% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Vikings have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 9 of their last 11 games (+8.15 Units / 58% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Vikings have hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 12 of their last 16 games (+7.55 Units / 41% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Vikings have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in their last 5 games at home (+5.00 Units / 85% ROI)

Patriots Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Patriots have gone 6-3 (+2.8 Units / 26.17% ROI).

  • Patriots are 6-4 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.75 Units / -4.5% ROI
  • Patriots are 4-6 when betting the Over for -2.6 Units / -23.64% ROI
  • Patriots are 6-4 when betting the Under for +1.6 Units / ROI

Vikings Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Vikings have gone 4-5 (-1.6 Units / -14.35% ROI).

  • Vikings are 8-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +7.3 Units / 40% ROI
  • Vikings are 5-5 when betting the Over for -0.5 Units / -4.55% ROI
  • Vikings are 5-5 when betting the Under for -0.5 Units / -4.55% ROI

New England Patriots: Keys to the Game vs. the Minnesota Vikings

The Patriots are undefeated (4-0) when not losing a fumble this season — tied for best in NFL; League Avg: .558.

The Patriots are winless (0-3) when allowing 120 or more rushing yards this season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .358.

The Patriots are undefeated (7-0) when allowing an average of less than 5 yards on first down plays since the 2021 season — tied for best in NFL; League Avg: .588.

The Patriots are winless (0-3) when allowing more than 3 explosive runs this season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .400.

Minnesota Vikings: Keys to the Game vs. the New England Patriots

The Vikings are 8-1 (.889) when forcing 1 or more turnovers this season — third-best in NFL. The Patriots have turned the ball over 19 times this season — tied for most in NFL.

The Vikings are undefeated (7-0) when allowing less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities this season — tied for best in NFL; League Avg: .580.

The Vikings are undefeated (6-0) when within 7 points entering the 4th quarter this season — tied for best in NFL; League Avg: .500.

The Vikings are undefeated (4-0) when making 7 or more explosive plays this season — tied for best in NFL; League Avg: .581.

Additional Matchup Notes for New England Patriots vs. Minnesota Vikings

The Vikings ran successful plays on just 20.0% of pass attempts on their opponent’s side of the field last week — fourth-worst in NFL. Patriots allowed successful plays on just 19.0% of pass attempts on their own side of the field in Week 10 — best in NFL.

The Vikings had a third down conversion rate of just 9.1% last week — worst in NFL. The Patriots defense allowed a third down conversion rate of just 21.4% in Week 10 — third-best in NFL.

The Vikings ran just 5.6% offensive plays in the red zone last week — tied for third-worst in NFL. Patriots allowed their opponent to run just 2.0% of plays in the red zone in Week 10 — best in NFL.

The Patriots have turned the ball over 19 times this season — tied for most in NFL. The Vikings have forced 16 turnovers this season — tied for fourth-most in NFL.

The Patriots have thrown the ball 10 yards or less 81.5% of pass attempts since Week 7 — highest in NFL. The Vikings have allowed 7.3 yards per dropback on pass attempts between 1 and 10 yards since Week 7 — fifth-worst in NFL.

Patriots RBs have gained 171 yards after catch since Week 7 — fifth-most in NFL. The Vikings have allowed 498 yards after catch since Week 7 — fourth-most in NFL.

New England Patriots Offense: Important Stats for Week 12

The Patriots have not recorded a TD in 26 drives in the 1st quarter this season — tied for worst Drives Per TD rate in NFL; League Avg: 6.3.

The Patriots have run successful plays on 26% of rush attempts in the red zone this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 49%.

The Patriots have started 8 drives inside opposing territory since Week 8 — most in NFL.

The Patriots have not recorded a TD in 10 drives in the 4th quarter since Week 8 — tied for worst Drives Per TD rate in NFL; League Avg: 5.1.

Minnesota Vikings Offense: Important Stats for Week 12

The Vikings allowed opponents to pressure their QB on 43% of pass attempts in Week 11 — worst in NFL; League Avg: 19%.

The Vikings ran 11% of their plays in their opponent’s territory in Week 11 — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 44%.

The Vikings ran no plays in their opponent’s territory in the 2nd half in Week 11 — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: 45%.

The Vikings allowed a QB hit on 43% of pass attempts in Week 11 — worst in NFL; League Avg: 18%.

New England Patriots Defense: Important Stats for Week 12

The Patriots defense forced three and outs on 58% of opponent drives in Week 11 — best in NFL; League Avg: 24%.

The Patriots defense has allowed a Completion Pct of just 56% (180 completions/323 attempts) this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 65%.

The Patriots defense has averaged 1.3 interceptions per game (34/27) since the 2021 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 0.8.

Offenses facing the Patriots have thrown deep balls on 17% of pass attempts (54/323) this season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 11%.

Minnesota Vikings Defense: Important Stats for Week 12

The Vikings defense tackled opponents for a loss on just 29 of 468 rushing attempts (6% TFL%) last season. — worst in NFL; League Avg: 11%.

The Vikings defense allowed a third down conversion rate of 71% in Week 11 — worst in NFL; League Avg: 39%.

The Vikings defense has allowed successful plays on 35% of rush attempts in the 4th quarter this season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 42%.

The Vikings defense has allowed 200.2 yards from scrimmage per game to WRs since the 2021 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 159.8.

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.