Rams vs Patriots Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 11

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Patriots player number 38 running with NFL game ball in hand.

(Winslow Townson/AP Images)

BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Nov 13, 2024, 3:47 PM

The Rams are -4.5 point favorites vs the Patriots
Total (Over/Under): 43.5 points
Watch this game on FOX

The Los Angeles Rams (4-5-0) visit Gillette Stadium to take on the New England Patriots (3-7-0) on Nov. 17. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EST in Foxborough, MA.

The Rams are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -4.5 (-115).

The Rams vs. Patriots Over/Under is 43.5 total points for the game.

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Rams vs. Patriots Odds, Spread, Over/Under

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Rams	-4.5 -115	43.5 -110	-225
Patriots	+4.5 -105	43.5 -110	+180

Rams vs. Patriots Prediction

The winning team model predicts the Rams will win this game with 79.9% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

Rams vs Patriots Spread Prediction

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Rams will cover the spread with 70.0% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Rams players this playoff game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Rams Player Prop Bets Today

Kyren Williams has hit the Carries Over in 12 of his last 15 games (+8.55 Units / 51% ROI)
Matthew Stafford has hit the Completions Over in 12 of his last 16 games (+7.70 Units / 42% ROI)
Matthew Stafford has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 10 of his last 12 games (+7.65 Units / 43% ROI)
Matthew Stafford has hit the Passing Yards Over in 11 of his last 16 games (+5.30 Units / 29% ROI)
Tyler Higbee has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 89% ROI)

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Patriots players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Patriots Player Prop Best Bets Today

Ja’Lynn Polk has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 7 of his last 8 games (+5.85 Units / 64% ROI)
Rhamondre Stevenson has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 8 of his last 11 games (+4.50 Units / 34% ROI)
K.J. Osborn has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 7 of his last 9 games (+4.20 Units / 36% ROI)
Hunter Henry has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 5 of his last 6 games at home (+3.95 Units / 58% ROI)
Antonio Gibson has hit the Carries Under in 6 of his last 8 games (+3.45 Units / 35% ROI)

Rams Best Bets:

The Los Angeles Rams have hit the Moneyline in 13 of their last 20 games (+9.75 Units / 33% ROI)
The Los Angeles Rams have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.25 Units / 30% ROI)
The Los Angeles Rams have covered the 4Q Spread in 11 of their last 17 games (+4.00 Units / 20% ROI)
The Los Angeles Rams have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 10 of their last 17 games (+3.98 Units / 18% ROI)
The Los Angeles Rams have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 6 of their last 8 away games (+3.60 Units / 38% ROI)

Patriots Best Bets:

The New England Patriots have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 7 of their last 17 games (+3.30 Units / 18% ROI)
The New England Patriots have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 10 of their last 17 games (+2.70 Units / 13% ROI)
The New England Patriots have scored last in 3 of their last 5 games (+1.75 Units / 33% ROI)
The New England Patriots have covered the 2H Spread in 8 of their last 14 games (+1.42 Units / 9% ROI)
The New England Patriots have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 4 of their last 7 games at home (+1.30 Units / 17% ROI)

Rams Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Rams art 3-6 (-3.55 Units / -36.04% ROI).

Rams are 4-5 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.05 Units / 0.41% ROI
Rams are 4-5 when betting the Over for -1.55 Units / -15.58% ROI
Rams are 5-4 when betting the Under for +0.6 Units / ROI

Patriots Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Patriots are 4-5 (-1.4 Units / -12.79% ROI).

Patriots are 3-7 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.2 Units / 12% ROI
Patriots are 5-5 when betting the Over for -0.5 Units / -4.55% ROI
Patriots are 5-5 when betting the Under for -0.5 Units / -4.55% ROI

Los Angeles Rams: Keys to the Game vs. the New England Patriots

The Rams are undefeated (5-0) when making 3 or more explosive runs in a game since the 2023 season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .604.

The Rams are winless (0-4) when allowing 27 or more points since the 2023 season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .166.

The Rams were 6-2 (.750) when making 7 or more explosive plays last season — T-10th-best in NFL; League Avg: .625.

The Rams were 8-2 (.800) when rushing for more than 100 yards last season — 8th-best in NFL; League Avg: .622.

New England Patriots: Keys to the Game vs. the Los Angeles Rams

The Patriots were winless (0-6) when allowing 100 or more rushing yards last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .378.

The Patriots are winless (0-6) after a win since the 2023 season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .522.

The Patriots were winless (0-4) when allowing 7 or more explosive plays last season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .375.

The Patriots were winless (0-5) when converting less than 55% of its red zone chances into touchdowns last season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .464.

Additional Matchup Notes for Los Angeles Rams vs. New England Patriots

The Patriots have run just 10.1% offensive plays in the red zone since the 2023 season — worst in NFL. The Rams have allowed their opponent to run just 12.8% of plays in the red zone since the 2023 season — 4th-best in NFL.

The Patriots have run successful plays on just 39.8% of pass attempts against a base front this season — 3rd-worst in NFL. The Rams have pressured opposing QBs on 29.7% of pass attempts with a base front this season — 5th-best in NFL.

Patriots RBs have rushed for 10 or more yards on just 6.6% of 574 carries since the 2023 season — 3rd-worst in NFL. The Rams have allowed 10+ yards on just 7.7% of carries to RBs since the 2023 season — 3rd-best in NFL.

The Rams have been successful on 58.0% of plays they have ran on play action passes this season — 4th-best in NFL. The Patriots have allowed their opponents to be successful on 57.3% of plays on play action passes this season — 3rd-worst in NFL.

The Rams have a third down conversion rate of just 6.9% on 3rd and 10+ YTG this season — 3rd-worst in NFL. The Patriots defense has allowed a third down conversion rate of just 10.7% on 3rd and 10+ YTG this season — 5th-best in NFL.

The Rams had a third down conversion rate of just 25.0% last week — 3rd-worst in NFL. The Patriots defense allowed a third down conversion rate of just 7.1% last week — best in NFL.

Los Angeles Rams Offense: Important Stats

The Rams went three and out on 6% of their drives in the 1st quarter last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 22%.

The Rams have run successful plays on 83% of plays against a light rush this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 42%.

The Rams averaged -0.51 epa per play against a light rush last season — 3rd-worst in NFL; League Avg: -0.04.

The Rams averaged -0.53 epa per play against a heavy rush last season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: -0.08.

New England Patriots Offense: Important Stats

The Patriots started 24 drives inside their own 10 yard line last season — most in NFL.

The Patriots scored on 20% of their drives in the 2nd half last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 34%.

The Patriots averaged -0.45 epa per play against a light front last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: -0.05.

The Patriots started 65 drives inside their own 20 yard line last season — most in NFL.

Los Angeles Rams Defense: Important Stats

The Rams defense has allowed a passer rating of 144.2 open coverage (115 Pass Attempts) this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 121.0.

The Rams defense tackled opponents for a loss on 7 of 21 rushing attempts (33% TFL%) in Week 10. — best in NFL; League Avg: 10%.

The Rams defense have allowed -0.66 epa per play with a heavy rush since the 2023 season — best in NFL; League Avg: -0.07.

The Rams defense have allowed -0.98 epa per play with a heavy rush this season — best in NFL; League Avg: -0.06.

New England Patriots Defense: Important Stats

The Patriots defense allowed a third down conversion rate of 7% in Week 10 — best in NFL; League Avg: 41%.

The Patriots defense allowed scores on 9% of opponent drives in Week 10 — best in NFL; League Avg: 36%.

The Patriots defense sacked opposing QBs on 23% of pass attempts (9/39) in Week 10 — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 8%.

The Patriots defense sacked opponents 9 times in Week 10 — most in NFL.

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