- The Rams are -4.5 point favorites vs the Patriots
- Total (Over/Under): 43.5 points
- Watch this game on FOX
The Los Angeles Rams (4-5-0) visit Gillette Stadium to take on the New England Patriots (3-7-0) on Nov. 17. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EST in Foxborough, MA.
The Rams are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -4.5 (-115).
The Rams vs. Patriots Over/Under is 43.5 total points for the game.
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Rams vs. Patriots Odds, Spread, Over/Under
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Rams | -4.5 -115 | 43.5 -110 | -225 |
| Patriots | +4.5 -105 | 43.5 -110 | +180 |
Rams vs. Patriots Prediction
The winning team model predicts the Rams will win this game with 79.9% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
Rams vs Patriots Spread Prediction
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Rams will cover the spread with 70.0% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Rams players this playoff game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Rams Player Prop Bets Today
- Kyren Williams has hit the Carries Over in 12 of his last 15 games (+8.55 Units / 51% ROI)
- Matthew Stafford has hit the Completions Over in 12 of his last 16 games (+7.70 Units / 42% ROI)
- Matthew Stafford has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 10 of his last 12 games (+7.65 Units / 43% ROI)
- Matthew Stafford has hit the Passing Yards Over in 11 of his last 16 games (+5.30 Units / 29% ROI)
- Tyler Higbee has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 89% ROI)
And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Patriots players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Patriots Player Prop Best Bets Today
- Ja’Lynn Polk has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 7 of his last 8 games (+5.85 Units / 64% ROI)
- Rhamondre Stevenson has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 8 of his last 11 games (+4.50 Units / 34% ROI)
- K.J. Osborn has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 7 of his last 9 games (+4.20 Units / 36% ROI)
- Hunter Henry has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 5 of his last 6 games at home (+3.95 Units / 58% ROI)
- Antonio Gibson has hit the Carries Under in 6 of his last 8 games (+3.45 Units / 35% ROI)
Rams Best Bets:
- The Los Angeles Rams have hit the Moneyline in 13 of their last 20 games (+9.75 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Los Angeles Rams have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.25 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Los Angeles Rams have covered the 4Q Spread in 11 of their last 17 games (+4.00 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Los Angeles Rams have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 10 of their last 17 games (+3.98 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Los Angeles Rams have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 6 of their last 8 away games (+3.60 Units / 38% ROI)
Patriots Best Bets:
- The New England Patriots have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 7 of their last 17 games (+3.30 Units / 18% ROI)
- The New England Patriots have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 10 of their last 17 games (+2.70 Units / 13% ROI)
- The New England Patriots have scored last in 3 of their last 5 games (+1.75 Units / 33% ROI)
- The New England Patriots have covered the 2H Spread in 8 of their last 14 games (+1.42 Units / 9% ROI)
- The New England Patriots have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 4 of their last 7 games at home (+1.30 Units / 17% ROI)
Rams Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Rams art 3-6 (-3.55 Units / -36.04% ROI).
- Rams are 4-5 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.05 Units / 0.41% ROI
- Rams are 4-5 when betting the Over for -1.55 Units / -15.58% ROI
- Rams are 5-4 when betting the Under for +0.6 Units / ROI
Patriots Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Patriots are 4-5 (-1.4 Units / -12.79% ROI).
- Patriots are 3-7 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.2 Units / 12% ROI
- Patriots are 5-5 when betting the Over for -0.5 Units / -4.55% ROI
- Patriots are 5-5 when betting the Under for -0.5 Units / -4.55% ROI
Los Angeles Rams: Keys to the Game vs. the New England Patriots
The Rams are undefeated (5-0) when making 3 or more explosive runs in a game since the 2023 season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .604.
The Rams are winless (0-4) when allowing 27 or more points since the 2023 season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .166.
The Rams were 6-2 (.750) when making 7 or more explosive plays last season — T-10th-best in NFL; League Avg: .625.
The Rams were 8-2 (.800) when rushing for more than 100 yards last season — 8th-best in NFL; League Avg: .622.
New England Patriots: Keys to the Game vs. the Los Angeles Rams
The Patriots were winless (0-6) when allowing 100 or more rushing yards last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .378.
The Patriots are winless (0-6) after a win since the 2023 season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .522.
The Patriots were winless (0-4) when allowing 7 or more explosive plays last season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .375.
The Patriots were winless (0-5) when converting less than 55% of its red zone chances into touchdowns last season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .464.
Additional Matchup Notes for Los Angeles Rams vs. New England Patriots
The Patriots have run just 10.1% offensive plays in the red zone since the 2023 season — worst in NFL. The Rams have allowed their opponent to run just 12.8% of plays in the red zone since the 2023 season — 4th-best in NFL.
The Patriots have run successful plays on just 39.8% of pass attempts against a base front this season — 3rd-worst in NFL. The Rams have pressured opposing QBs on 29.7% of pass attempts with a base front this season — 5th-best in NFL.
Patriots RBs have rushed for 10 or more yards on just 6.6% of 574 carries since the 2023 season — 3rd-worst in NFL. The Rams have allowed 10+ yards on just 7.7% of carries to RBs since the 2023 season — 3rd-best in NFL.
The Rams have been successful on 58.0% of plays they have ran on play action passes this season — 4th-best in NFL. The Patriots have allowed their opponents to be successful on 57.3% of plays on play action passes this season — 3rd-worst in NFL.
The Rams have a third down conversion rate of just 6.9% on 3rd and 10+ YTG this season — 3rd-worst in NFL. The Patriots defense has allowed a third down conversion rate of just 10.7% on 3rd and 10+ YTG this season — 5th-best in NFL.
The Rams had a third down conversion rate of just 25.0% last week — 3rd-worst in NFL. The Patriots defense allowed a third down conversion rate of just 7.1% last week — best in NFL.
Los Angeles Rams Offense: Important Stats
The Rams went three and out on 6% of their drives in the 1st quarter last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 22%.
The Rams have run successful plays on 83% of plays against a light rush this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 42%.
The Rams averaged -0.51 epa per play against a light rush last season — 3rd-worst in NFL; League Avg: -0.04.
The Rams averaged -0.53 epa per play against a heavy rush last season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: -0.08.
New England Patriots Offense: Important Stats
The Patriots started 24 drives inside their own 10 yard line last season — most in NFL.
The Patriots scored on 20% of their drives in the 2nd half last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 34%.
The Patriots averaged -0.45 epa per play against a light front last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: -0.05.
The Patriots started 65 drives inside their own 20 yard line last season — most in NFL.
Los Angeles Rams Defense: Important Stats
The Rams defense has allowed a passer rating of 144.2 open coverage (115 Pass Attempts) this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 121.0.
The Rams defense tackled opponents for a loss on 7 of 21 rushing attempts (33% TFL%) in Week 10. — best in NFL; League Avg: 10%.
The Rams defense have allowed -0.66 epa per play with a heavy rush since the 2023 season — best in NFL; League Avg: -0.07.
The Rams defense have allowed -0.98 epa per play with a heavy rush this season — best in NFL; League Avg: -0.06.
New England Patriots Defense: Important Stats
The Patriots defense allowed a third down conversion rate of 7% in Week 10 — best in NFL; League Avg: 41%.
The Patriots defense allowed scores on 9% of opponent drives in Week 10 — best in NFL; League Avg: 36%.
The Patriots defense sacked opposing QBs on 23% of pass attempts (9/39) in Week 10 — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 8%.
The Patriots defense sacked opponents 9 times in Week 10 — most in NFL.
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More NFL Betting Predictions:
- Anytime & First Touchdown Scorer Predictions
- Receiving Yards Prop Predictions
- Rushing Yards Prop Predictions
- Passing Yards Prop Predictions
- Receptions Made Prop Predictions
- Rushing Attempts Prop Predictions
- Passing Touchdowns Prop Predictions
- QB Interception Prop Predictions
- Field Goals Made Prop Predictions
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