- The Ravens are -6.5 point favorites vs the Texans
- Total (Over/Under): 47 points
- Watch this game on NFLX
The Baltimore Ravens (10-5-0) visit NRG Stadium to take on the Houston Texans (9-6-0) on Dec. 25. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:30pm EST in Houston, TX.
The Ravens are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -6.5 (-115).
The Ravens vs. Texans Over/Under is 47 total points for the game.
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Ravens vs. Texans Odds, Spread, Over/Under
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Ravens | -6.5 -115 | 47 -110 | -300 |
| Texans | +6.5 -105 | 47 -110 | +240 |
Ravens vs. Texans Prediction
The winning team model predicts the Ravens will win this game with 64.0% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
Ravens vs Texans Spread Prediction
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Ravens will cover the spread with 62.0% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Ravens players this playoff game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Ravens Player Prop Bets Today
- Lamar Jackson has hit the TD Passes Over in 13 of his last 19 games (+7.90 Units / 37% ROI)
- Derrick Henry has hit the Receptions Under in 7 of his last 8 away games (+7.15 Units / 67% ROI)
- Lamar Jackson has hit the Interceptions Under in 8 of his last 9 away games (+6.65 Units / 54% ROI)
- Lamar Jackson has hit the Carries Under in 13 of his last 19 games (+6.05 Units / 27% ROI)
- Lamar Jackson has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 13 of his last 19 games (+6.00 Units / 27% ROI)
And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Texans players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Texans Player Prop Best Bets Today
- C.J. Stroud has hit the Carries Over in 12 of his last 17 games (+6.50 Units / 29% ROI)
- Xavier Hutchinson has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 7 of his last 8 games (+5.60 Units / 60% ROI)
- Ka’imi Fairbairn has hit the Field Goals Over in 13 of his last 19 games (+5.10 Units / 18% ROI)
- Dalton Schultz has hit the Receptions Under in 7 of his last 9 games at home (+4.80 Units / 40% ROI)
- Tank Dell has hit the Receptions Under in 5 of his last 6 games at home (+3.90 Units / 52% ROI)
First Touchdown Scorer Bet for Texans vs Ravens
| Player Name | 1st TD Odds |
|---|---|
| Derrick Henry (BAL) | +375 |
| Joe Mixon (HOU) | +550 |
| Nico Collins (Hou) | +850 |
Receiving Props: Total Receiving Yards for Texans vs Ravens
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Mark Andrews (BAL) | 37.5 -115 | 37.5 -115 |
| Nico Collins (HOU) | 89.5 -120 | 89.5 -110 |
| Joe Mixon (HOU) | 19.5 -145 | 19.5 +110 |
| Zay Flowers (BAL) | 60.5 -120 | 60.5 -110 |
| Isaiah Likely (BAL) | 25.5 -115 | 25.5 -115 |
Rushing Props: Total Rushing Yards for Texans vs Ravens
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Joe Mixon (HOU) | 62.5 -105 | 62.5 -130 |
| Derrick Henry (BAL) | 91.5 -135 | 91.5 +100 |
| Lamar Jackson (BAL) | 45.5 -115 | 45.5 -115 |
| CJ Stroud (HOU) | 12.5 -110 | 12.5 -120 |
Ravens Best Bets:
- The Baltimore Ravens have hit the 2H Moneyline in 11 of their last 16 games (+8.50 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Baltimore Ravens have hit the Game Total Over in 9 of their last 10 away games (+7.90 Units / 72% ROI)
- The Baltimore Ravens have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 12 of their last 20 games (+6.85 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Baltimore Ravens have hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 13 of their last 20 games (+5.10 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Baltimore Ravens have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 7 of their last 10 away games (+4.80 Units / 42% ROI)
Texans Best Bets:
- The Houston Texans have hit the 1H Moneyline in 18 of their last 22 games (+13.60 Units / 38% ROI)
- The Houston Texans have covered the 1H Spread in 18 of their last 22 games (+13.30 Units / 52% ROI)
- The Houston Texans have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 8 of their last 9 games at home (+8.20 Units / 60% ROI)
- The Houston Texans have covered the 2Q Spread in 14 of their last 19 games (+8.00 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Houston Texans have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 8 of their last 9 games at home (+6.75 Units / 65% ROI)
Ravens Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Ravens art 8-6 (+1.45 Units / 8.73% ROI).
- Ravens are 10-5 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.1 Units / -4.53% ROI
- Ravens are 12-3 when betting the Over for +8.7 Units / 52.73% ROI
- Ravens are 3-12 when betting the Under for -10.2 Units / ROI
Texans Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Texans are 6-7 (-1.55 Units / -9.45% ROI).
- Texans are 9-6 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.2 Units / -0.68% ROI
- Texans are 5-9 when betting the Over for -5 Units / -30.12% ROI
- Texans are 9-5 when betting the Under for +3.5 Units / 21.34% ROI
Baltimore Ravens: Keys to the Game vs. the Houston Texans
The Ravens were undefeated (4-0) when sacking the QB less than 3 times last season — best in NFL; League Avg: .363.
The Ravens are 5-1 (.833) vs top 10 offenses this season — best in NFL; League Avg: .307.
The Ravens were 2-1 (.667) when not forcing a turnover last season — T-4th-best in NFL; League Avg: .265.
The Ravens were undefeated (5-0) when passing for more than 250 yards last season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .586.
Houston Texans: Keys to the Game vs. the Baltimore Ravens
The Texans are 5-1 (.833) when passing for 250 or more yards this season — T-4th-best in NFL. The Ravens have allowed 254.9 passing yards per game this season — 2nd-worst in NFL.
The Texans were 7-2 (.778) when averaging more than 5 yards on first down plays last season — 6th-best in NFL; League Avg: .579.
The Texans were undefeated (5-0) when leading at the end of first quarter last season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .737.
The Texans were 9-3 (.750) when making 5 or more explosive passes in a game last season — T-5th-best in NFL; League Avg: .573.
Additional Matchup Notes for Baltimore Ravens vs. Houston Texans
The Texans have been successful on just 38.3% of plays they have run with motion since the 2023 season — 3rd-worst in NFL. The Ravens have allowed their opponents to be successful on just 41.1% of plays against motion since the 2023 season — 5th-best in NFL.
Texans QBs have been 48 sacked this season — T-5th-most in NFL. The Ravens have sacked the quarterback 47 times this season — 2nd-most in NFL.
The Texans are 5-1 (.833) when passing for 250 or more yards this season — T-4th-best in NFL. The Ravens have allowed 254.9 passing yards per game this season — 2nd-worst in NFL.
The Ravens have run successful plays on 73.1% of rush attempts on play action passes since the 2023 season — best in NFL. The Texans have allowed successful plays on 73.9% of rush attempts on play action passes since the 2023 season — 2nd-worst in NFL.
The Ravens have thrown the ball just 46.2% of the time this season — 3rd-lowest in NFL. The Texans have allowed just 5.9 yards per dropback this season — 2nd-best in NFL.
The Ravens ran 22.0% offensive plays in the red zone last week — 3rd-best in NFL. The Texans allowed their opponent to run 20.6% of plays in the red zone last week — 5th-worst in NFL.
Baltimore Ravens Offense: Important Stats
The Ravens have averaged 0.21 epa per play against a base front this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 0.00.
The Ravens have thrown the ball 13% of the time (6 Pass Attempts/45 plays) on 3rd and short this season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 44%.
The Ravens had 21 rushes of 20+ yards last season — 2nd-most in NFL.
The Ravens have averaged -0.07 epa per play against tight coverage this season — best in NFL; League Avg: -0.44.
Houston Texans Offense: Important Stats
The Texans ran successful plays on 25% of rush attempts against a stacked front last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 42%.
The Texans have run successful plays on 33% of rush attempts this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 43%.
The Texans ran successful plays on 29% of plays against a stacked front last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 43%.
The Texans have run successful plays on 31% of rush attempts against a base front this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 43%.
Baltimore Ravens Defense: Important Stats
The Ravens defense allowed successful plays on 27% of plays with a light front last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 40%.
The Ravens defense have allowed -0.11 epa per play in the 1st half since the 2023 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 0.01.
The Ravens defense has not allowed a third down conversion on 3rd and short since Week 13 — best in NFL; League Avg: 61%.
The Ravens defense has allowed successful plays on 38% of pass attempts with tight coverage this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 23%.
Houston Texans Defense: Important Stats
The Texans defense has allowed successful plays on 40% of pass attempts this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 46%.
The Texans defense has allowed successful plays on 9% of plays with tight coverage this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 24%.
The Texans defense has allowed successful plays on 38% of pass attempts against play action passes this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 52%.
The Texans defense has allowed successful plays on 39% of pass attempts from their own territory this season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 48%.
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More NFL Betting Predictions:
- Anytime & First Touchdown Scorer Predictions
- Receiving Yards Prop Predictions
- Rushing Yards Prop Predictions
- Passing Yards Prop Predictions
- Receptions Made Prop Predictions
- Rushing Attempts Prop Predictions
- Passing Touchdowns Prop Predictions
- QB Interception Prop Predictions
- Field Goals Made Prop Predictions
- NFL Betting Previews: Every Game
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