- The Chargers are -7.5 point favorites vs the Saints
- Total (Over/Under): 40 points
- Watch this game on FOX
The New Orleans Saints (2-5-0) visit SoFi Stadium to take on the Los Angeles Chargers (3-3-0) on Oct. 27. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:05pm EDT in Inglewood, CA.
The Chargers are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -7 (-115).
The Saints vs. Chargers Over/Under is 40.5 total points for the game.
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Saints vs. Chargers Odds, Spread, Over/Under
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Saints | +7 -105 | 40.5 -110 | +280 |
| Chargers | -7 -115 | 40.5 -110 | -350 |
Saints vs. Chargers Prediction
The winning team model predicts the Chargers will win this game with 65.2% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
Saints vs Chargers Spread Prediction
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Saints will cover the spread with 53.5% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Saints players this playoff game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Saints Player Prop Bets Today
- Derek Carr has hit the TD Passes Over in 10 of his last 15 games (+8.30 Units / 54% ROI)
- Derek Carr has hit the Pass Attempts Under in 11 of his last 15 games (+6.00 Units / 32% ROI)
- Foster Moreau has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 7 of his last 8 games (+5.80 Units / 62% ROI)
- Cedrick Wilson has hit the Receptions Under in 6 of his last 7 games (+5.05 Units / 52% ROI)
- Alvin Kamara has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 6 of his last 8 away games (+3.85 Units / 43% ROI)
And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Chargers players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Chargers Player Prop Best Bets Today
- D.J. Chark has hit the Longest Reception Over in his last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 85% ROI)
- Hayden Hurst has hit the Receptions Under in his last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 62% ROI)
- Will Dissly has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 8 of his last 9 games (+6.95 Units / 66% ROI)
- Will Dissly has hit the Receptions Over in 6 of his last 8 games (+4.70 Units / 50% ROI)
- Gus Edwards has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 7 of his last 9 games at home (+4.50 Units / 40% ROI)
Rushing Props: Total Rushing Yards for Chargers vs Saints
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Alvin Kamara (NO) | 54.5 -110 | 54.5 -120 |
Saints Best Bets:
- The New Orleans Saints have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 15 of their last 20 games (+9.30 Units / 41% ROI)
- The New Orleans Saints have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.50 Units / 33% ROI)
- The New Orleans Saints have covered the 4Q Spread in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.40 Units / 33% ROI)
- The New Orleans Saints have hit the 2H Moneyline in 8 of their last 10 games (+6.25 Units / 41% ROI)
- The New Orleans Saints have covered the 3Q Spread in 7 of their last 8 away games (+6.20 Units / 63% ROI)
Chargers Best Bets:
- The Los Angeles Chargers have hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 14 of their last 17 games (+11.20 Units / 55% ROI)
- The Los Angeles Chargers have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 10 of their last 20 games (+3.75 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Los Angeles Chargers have hit the 2H Moneyline in 3 of their last 5 games (+3.45 Units / 61% ROI)
- The Los Angeles Chargers have covered the 2H Spread in 4 of their last 5 games (+2.90 Units / 54% ROI)
- The Los Angeles Chargers have hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 10 of their last 17 games (+1.95 Units / 10% ROI)
Saints Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Saints art 3-4 (-1.3 Units / -17.33% ROI).
- Saints are 2-5 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.1 Units / -25.3% ROI
- Saints are 5-2 when betting the Over for +2.8 Units / 36.36% ROI
- Saints are 2-5 when betting the Under for -3.5 Units / ROI
Chargers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Chargers are 3-2 (+0.8 Units / 12.12% ROI).
- Chargers are 3-3 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.2 Units / -2.35% ROI
- Chargers are 1-5 when betting the Over for -4.5 Units / -68.18% ROI
- Chargers are 5-1 when betting the Under for +3.9 Units / 59.09% ROI
New Orleans Saints: Keys to the Game vs. the Los Angeles Chargers
The Saints are 2-7 (.222) when within 7 points at the two minute warning since the 2023 season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .500.
The Saints are 2-7 (.222) when within 7 points at the two minute warning since the 2023 season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .500.
The Saints are winless (0-4) when converting less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .453.
The Saints are winless (0-11) when trailing at the end of the third quarter since the 2023 season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .142.
Los Angeles Chargers: Keys to the Game vs. the New Orleans Saints
The Chargers are winless (0-8) when within 3 points at the two minute warning since the 2023 season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .500.
The Chargers are winless (0-8) when within 3 points at the two minute warning since the 2023 season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .500.
The Chargers are winless (0-8) when within 3 points at the two minute warning since the 2023 season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .500.
The Chargers are winless (0-8) when within 3 points at the two minute warning since the 2023 season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .500.
Additional Matchup Notes for New Orleans Saints vs. Los Angeles Chargers
The Chargers have 6 touchdown passes this season — T-4th-fewest in NFL. The Saints have allowed 5 passing TDs this season — T-3rd-fewest in NFL.
The Chargers have averaged just -0.13 epa per play against a stacked front since the 2023 season — T-3rd-worst in NFL. The Saints have allowed just -0.09 epa per play with a stacked front since the 2023 season — T-4th-best in NFL.
The Chargers scored on 62.5% of their drives last week — 4th-best in NFL. The Saints defense allowed scores on 54.5% of opponent drives last week — T-5th-worst in NFL.
The Saints have run successful plays on 61.5% of pass attempts against a heavy rush this season — 5th-best in NFL. The Chargers have pressured opposing QBs on 16.7% of pass attempts with a heavy rush this season — T-3rd-worst in NFL.
The Saints ran successful plays on 56.2% of rush attempts against a base front last week — 5th-best in NFL. The Chargers allowed successful plays on 58.3% of rush attempts with a base front last week — 4th-worst in NFL.
Saints RBs have averaged 8.1 targets per game this season — T-highest in NFL. The Chargers have allowed 5.3 receptions per game to RBs this season — 4th-worst in NFL.
New Orleans Saints Offense: Important Stats
The Saints have targeted RBs 26% of the time (56 Pass Attempts/215 plays) this season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 17%.
The Saints have averaged 0.24 epa per play on contested throws since the 2023 season — best in NFL; League Avg: -0.12.
The Saints threw the ball 75% of the time (12 Pass Attempts/16 plays) in close and late situations last season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 55%.
The Saints ran successful plays on 56% of pass attempts on motion plays last season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 47%.
Los Angeles Chargers Offense: Important Stats
The Chargers have run successful plays on 12% of rush attempts against a base rush this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 51%.
The Chargers have thrown the ball 9% of the time (2 Pass Attempts/22 plays) on 3rd and short this season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 43%.
The Chargers have run successful plays on 22% of plays in the red zone this season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 42%.
The Chargers ran successful plays on 29% of pass attempts against a stacked front last season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 50%.
New Orleans Saints Defense: Important Stats
The Saints defense allowed 20+ yard rushes 3 times in Week 7 — T-most in NFL.
The Saints defense has allowed a passer rating of just 74.2 first read passes (374 Pass Attempts) since the 2023 season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 95.0.
The Saints defense has allowed a passer rating of just 74.2 first read passes (374 Pass Attempts) since the 2023 season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 95.0.
The Saints defense allowed a third down conversion rate of 41% on 3rd and short last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 59%.
Los Angeles Chargers Defense: Important Stats
The Chargers defense has allowed successful plays on 66% of rush attempts in the 4th quarter this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 42%.
The Chargers defense have allowed -0.61 epa per play on first drive of the game this season — best in NFL; League Avg: -0.00.
The Chargers defense has allowed scores on 11% of opponent drives in the 1st half this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 39%.
The Chargers defense allowed 0.64 epa per play with a light rush last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: -0.04.
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More NFL Betting Predictions:
- Anytime & First Touchdown Scorer Predictions
- Receiving Yards Prop Predictions
- Rushing Yards Prop Predictions
- Passing Yards Prop Predictions
- Receptions Made Prop Predictions
- Rushing Attempts Prop Predictions
- Passing Touchdowns Prop Predictions
- QB Interception Prop Predictions
- Field Goals Made Prop Predictions
- NFL Betting Previews: Every Game
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