Saints vs Chargers Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 8

min read

Rice player number 10 about to throw a NFL game ball with Rice players number 25 and 13 running in the background.

(AP Photo/Jack Dempsey)

BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Oct 24, 2024, 4:18 PM

The Chargers are -7.5 point favorites vs the Saints
Total (Over/Under): 40 points
Watch this game on FOX

The New Orleans Saints (2-5-0) visit SoFi Stadium to take on the Los Angeles Chargers (3-3-0) on Oct. 27. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:05pm EDT in Inglewood, CA.

The Chargers are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -7 (-115).

The Saints vs. Chargers Over/Under is 40.5 total points for the game.

Bet now on Chargers vs Saints & all NFL games with BetMGM

Saints vs. Chargers Odds, Spread, Over/Under

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Saints	+7 -105	40.5 -110	+280
Chargers	-7 -115	40.5 -110	-350

Saints vs. Chargers Prediction

The winning team model predicts the Chargers will win this game with 65.2% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

Saints vs Chargers Spread Prediction

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Saints will cover the spread with 53.5% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

Bet now on Chargers vs Saints and all NFL games with BetMGM

$1500 First Bet Offer

We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Saints players this playoff game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Saints Player Prop Bets Today

Derek Carr has hit the TD Passes Over in 10 of his last 15 games (+8.30 Units / 54% ROI)
Derek Carr has hit the Pass Attempts Under in 11 of his last 15 games (+6.00 Units / 32% ROI)
Foster Moreau has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 7 of his last 8 games (+5.80 Units / 62% ROI)
Cedrick Wilson has hit the Receptions Under in 6 of his last 7 games (+5.05 Units / 52% ROI)
Alvin Kamara has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 6 of his last 8 away games (+3.85 Units / 43% ROI)

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Chargers players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Chargers Player Prop Best Bets Today

D.J. Chark has hit the Longest Reception Over in his last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 85% ROI)
Hayden Hurst has hit the Receptions Under in his last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 62% ROI)
Will Dissly has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 8 of his last 9 games (+6.95 Units / 66% ROI)
Will Dissly has hit the Receptions Over in 6 of his last 8 games (+4.70 Units / 50% ROI)
Gus Edwards has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 7 of his last 9 games at home (+4.50 Units / 40% ROI)

Rushing Props: Total Rushing Yards for Chargers vs Saints

Player Name	Over	Under
Alvin Kamara (NO)	54.5 -110	54.5 -120

Saints Best Bets:

The New Orleans Saints have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 15 of their last 20 games (+9.30 Units / 41% ROI)
The New Orleans Saints have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.50 Units / 33% ROI)
The New Orleans Saints have covered the 4Q Spread in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.40 Units / 33% ROI)
The New Orleans Saints have hit the 2H Moneyline in 8 of their last 10 games (+6.25 Units / 41% ROI)
The New Orleans Saints have covered the 3Q Spread in 7 of their last 8 away games (+6.20 Units / 63% ROI)

Chargers Best Bets:

The Los Angeles Chargers have hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 14 of their last 17 games (+11.20 Units / 55% ROI)
The Los Angeles Chargers have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 10 of their last 20 games (+3.75 Units / 14% ROI)
The Los Angeles Chargers have hit the 2H Moneyline in 3 of their last 5 games (+3.45 Units / 61% ROI)
The Los Angeles Chargers have covered the 2H Spread in 4 of their last 5 games (+2.90 Units / 54% ROI)
The Los Angeles Chargers have hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 10 of their last 17 games (+1.95 Units / 10% ROI)

Saints Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Saints art 3-4 (-1.3 Units / -17.33% ROI).

Saints are 2-5 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.1 Units / -25.3% ROI
Saints are 5-2 when betting the Over for +2.8 Units / 36.36% ROI
Saints are 2-5 when betting the Under for -3.5 Units / ROI

Chargers Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Chargers are 3-2 (+0.8 Units / 12.12% ROI).

Chargers are 3-3 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.2 Units / -2.35% ROI
Chargers are 1-5 when betting the Over for -4.5 Units / -68.18% ROI
Chargers are 5-1 when betting the Under for +3.9 Units / 59.09% ROI

New Orleans Saints: Keys to the Game vs. the Los Angeles Chargers

The Saints are 2-7 (.222) when within 7 points at the two minute warning since the 2023 season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .500.

The Saints are winless (0-4) when converting less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .453.

The Saints are winless (0-11) when trailing at the end of the third quarter since the 2023 season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .142.

Los Angeles Chargers: Keys to the Game vs. the New Orleans Saints

The Chargers are winless (0-8) when within 3 points at the two minute warning since the 2023 season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .500.

Additional Matchup Notes for New Orleans Saints vs. Los Angeles Chargers

The Chargers have 6 touchdown passes this season — T-4th-fewest in NFL. The Saints have allowed 5 passing TDs this season — T-3rd-fewest in NFL.

The Chargers have averaged just -0.13 epa per play against a stacked front since the 2023 season — T-3rd-worst in NFL. The Saints have allowed just -0.09 epa per play with a stacked front since the 2023 season — T-4th-best in NFL.

The Chargers scored on 62.5% of their drives last week — 4th-best in NFL. The Saints defense allowed scores on 54.5% of opponent drives last week — T-5th-worst in NFL.

The Saints have run successful plays on 61.5% of pass attempts against a heavy rush this season — 5th-best in NFL. The Chargers have pressured opposing QBs on 16.7% of pass attempts with a heavy rush this season — T-3rd-worst in NFL.

The Saints ran successful plays on 56.2% of rush attempts against a base front last week — 5th-best in NFL. The Chargers allowed successful plays on 58.3% of rush attempts with a base front last week — 4th-worst in NFL.

Saints RBs have averaged 8.1 targets per game this season — T-highest in NFL. The Chargers have allowed 5.3 receptions per game to RBs this season — 4th-worst in NFL.

New Orleans Saints Offense: Important Stats

The Saints have targeted RBs 26% of the time (56 Pass Attempts/215 plays) this season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 17%.

The Saints have averaged 0.24 epa per play on contested throws since the 2023 season — best in NFL; League Avg: -0.12.

The Saints threw the ball 75% of the time (12 Pass Attempts/16 plays) in close and late situations last season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 55%.

The Saints ran successful plays on 56% of pass attempts on motion plays last season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 47%.

Los Angeles Chargers Offense: Important Stats

The Chargers have run successful plays on 12% of rush attempts against a base rush this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 51%.

The Chargers have thrown the ball 9% of the time (2 Pass Attempts/22 plays) on 3rd and short this season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 43%.

The Chargers have run successful plays on 22% of plays in the red zone this season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 42%.

The Chargers ran successful plays on 29% of pass attempts against a stacked front last season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 50%.

New Orleans Saints Defense: Important Stats

The Saints defense allowed 20+ yard rushes 3 times in Week 7 — T-most in NFL.

The Saints defense has allowed a passer rating of just 74.2 first read passes (374 Pass Attempts) since the 2023 season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 95.0.

The Saints defense allowed a third down conversion rate of 41% on 3rd and short last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 59%.

Los Angeles Chargers Defense: Important Stats

The Chargers defense has allowed successful plays on 66% of rush attempts in the 4th quarter this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 42%.

The Chargers defense have allowed -0.61 epa per play on first drive of the game this season — best in NFL; League Avg: -0.00.

The Chargers defense has allowed scores on 11% of opponent drives in the 1st half this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 39%.

The Chargers defense allowed 0.64 epa per play with a light rush last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: -0.04.

Looking to place a bet on this game with a First Bet Offer up to $1,500? Bet now on Chargers vs Saints and all NFL games with BetMGM

More NFL Betting Predictions:

More NFL Odds at BetMGM

Take your football entertainment to the next level with NFL betting at the online sportsbook.

From futures like Chiefs Super Bowl odds, Lions odds to win the division, or Ravens playoff odds, to weekly odds like spreads, moneylines, and over/under totals, there’s something for everyone.

And with the best sportsbook promotions, you could land a welcome offer, sports betting Odds Boost, or a Parlay Boost! You can also check out NFL picks and predictions and updated Super Bowl predictions throughout the year.

Log in to your BetMGM account today — or sign up for a new account via the online sportsbook or BetMGM iOS app or BetMGM Android app — to start betting!

About the Author