- The Saints are a 7.5-point home underdog against the Commanders.
- The Commanders have lost seven of their last eight games before a Division game.
- My Saints vs. Commanders prediction is Washington to cover the spread.
Off a Week 14 bye, the Commanders travel to New Orleans on Sunday for a meeting with the Saints.
The last time bettors saw Washington, Jayden Daniels guided the Commanders to a blowout win over the Titans. Still, the Commanders sit three games back of the Eagles in the division.
New Orleans won as road favorites in New York on Sunday against the Giants. However, they failed to cover the spread for the second straight week.
Bet on Saints vs. Commanders and other NFL matchups with up-to-date NFL odds.
NFL Week 15 Odds: Saints vs. Commanders
2024-12-15T18:00:00ZCommanders at Saints
Saints vs. Commanders Prediction
Based on Daniels’ strong record as a market favorite this year and New Orleans’ injury issues, my Saints vs. Commanders prediction is the Commanders Spread (-7.5, -110).
Full disclosure: I laid it with the Commanders at -7. I still lean to the Commanders are -7.5, but the fact it moved off a key number is slightly worrisome.
History suggests the Commanders are extremely likely to capture a straight up victory.
Since 2003, conference favorites between -7 and -4.5 with 11-15 days between games are 53-12, assuming the opponent has 6-8 days between games.
Just when those favorites fall between -7 and -6.5: 26-6 SU with a +8.44 average margin of victory, including 17-2 at -7.
That’s the first step toward a cover for Daniels, who is 6-2 ATS as a market favorite this season.
On Sunday, he’ll get a Saints team with no Derek Carr, Taysom Hill, Chris Olave or Rashid Shaheed.
As a result, I question how the Saints offense scores enough points to stay within this number.
At the same time, I wonder how New Orleans’ defense holds up against a powerful Commanders offense.
Prior to Sunday’s game against the Giants, New Orleans ranked 26th in defensive DVOA against the third-easiest schedule of opposing offenses, per ftnfantasy.com.
The Saints have played only two games against teams 10th or better in offensive DVOA. In those contests, they fell by 13 at Kansas City and by 24 against Tampa Bay.
Washington is the best offense the Saints will have faced by offensive DVOA, so I’ll lay the points with the Commanders off a bye.
If you worry about the hook, tease the Commanders down to -1.5 and pair them with the Steelers +10.5 at Philadelphia.
Betting Saints vs. Commanders: NFL Public Betting
Check back on Friday for Saints vs. Commanders public betting data and insights.
