- The Steelers are -3 point favorites vs the Broncos
- Total (Over/Under): 36.5 points
- Watch this game on CBS
The Pittsburgh Steelers (1-0-0) visit Empower Field at Mile High to take on the Denver Broncos (0-1-0) on Sep. 15. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:25pm EDT in Denver, CO.
The Steelers are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -3 (-110).
The Steelers vs. Broncos Over/Under is 36.5 total points for the game.
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Steelers vs. Broncos Odds, Spread, Over/Under
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Steelers | -3 -110 | 36.5 -110 | -160 |
| Broncos | +3 -110 | 36.5 -110 | +135 |
Steelers vs. Broncos Prediction
The winning team model predicts the Broncos will win this game with 58.0% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
Steelers vs Broncos Spread Prediction
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Broncos will cover the spread with 58.5% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Steelers players this playoff game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Steelers Player Prop Bets Today
- Jaylen Warren has hit the Receptions Over in 14 of his last 18 games (+9.15 Units / 39% ROI)
- George Pickens has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 13 of his last 19 games (+5.80 Units / 25% ROI)
- Russell Wilson has hit the Carries Over in his last 5 away games (+5.50 Units / 97% ROI)
- Najee Harris has hit the Receptions Under in 7 of his last 8 away games (+5.50 Units / 50% ROI)
- Justin Fields has hit the TD Passes Under in 8 of his last 12 games (+5.05 Units / 24% ROI)
And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Broncos players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Broncos Player Prop Best Bets Today
- Marvin Mims Jr. has hit the Longest Reception Under in 10 of his last 12 games (+7.50 Units / 50% ROI)
- Marvin Mims Jr. has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 11 of his last 14 games (+7.35 Units / 43% ROI)
- Courtland Sutton has hit the Longest Reception Over in 9 of his last 11 games (+6.75 Units / 53% ROI)
- Javonte Williams has hit the Receptions Over in 6 of his last 7 games at home (+5.85 Units / 70% ROI)
- Zach Wilson has hit the Interceptions Under in his last 5 games at home (+5.80 Units / 116% ROI)
Steelers Best Bets:
- The Pittsburgh Steelers have covered the 2H Spread in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.40 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Steelers have covered the 4Q Spread in 13 of their last 19 games (+5.25 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Steelers have hit the 2H Moneyline in 5 of their last 7 away games (+4.85 Units / 61% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Steelers have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 10 of their last 19 games (+4.70 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Steelers have scored first in 9 of their last 13 games (+4.60 Units / 29% ROI)
Broncos Best Bets:
- The Denver Broncos have covered the 1Q Spread in 16 of their last 21 games (+10.75 Units / 45% ROI)
- The Denver Broncos have hit the 1H Moneyline in 14 of their last 21 games (+9.70 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Denver Broncos have covered the 1H Spread in 10 of their last 11 games at home (+9.00 Units / 73% ROI)
- The Denver Broncos have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 10 of their last 11 games at home (+9.00 Units / 53% ROI)
- The Denver Broncos have scored first in their last 6 games at home (+6.30 Units / 76% ROI)
Steelers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL preseason, the Steelers went 1-0 (+1 Units / 90.91% ROI).
- Steelers are 1-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.65 Units / 165% ROI
- Steelers are 0-1 when betting the Over for -1.1 Units / -100% ROI
- Steelers are 1-0 when betting the Under for +1 Units / ROI
Broncos Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL preseason, the Broncos went 1-0 (+1 Units / 90.91% ROI).
- Broncos are 0-1 when betting on the Moneyline for -1 Units / -100% ROI
- Broncos are 1-0 when betting the Over for +1 Units / 90.91% ROI
- Broncos are 0-1 when betting the Under for -1.1 Units / -100% ROI
Pittsburgh Steelers: Keys to the Game vs. the Denver Broncos
The Steelers were undefeated (4-0) when making 5 or more explosive passes in a game last season — best in NFL; League Avg: .570.
The Steelers were undefeated (3-0) when passing for more than 250 yards last season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .587.
The Steelers were undefeated (5-0) when making 7 or more explosive plays last season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .622.
The Steelers were undefeated (5-0) when leading at the end of the first half last season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .783.
Denver Broncos: Keys to the Game vs. the Pittsburgh Steelers
The Broncos were winless (0-4) when trailing at the end of quarter 1 last season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .265.
The Broncos were 4-4 (.500) when sacking the QB 3 or more times last season — 7th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .650.
The Broncos were 8-4 (.667) when forcing 1 or more turnovers last season — 9th-best in NFL; League Avg: .592.
The Broncos were 7-2 (.778) when forcing at least one fumble last season — T-6th-best in NFL; League Avg: .618.
Additional Matchup Notes for Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Denver Broncos
The Broncos have been successful on just 38.4% of plays they have run since the 2022 season — 3rd-worst in NFL. The Steelers have allowed their opponents to be successful on just 40.5% of plays since the 2022 season — 5th-best in NFL.
The Broncos have been successful on just 38.5% of plays they have run with motion since the 2022 season — 5th-worst in NFL. The Steelers have allowed their opponents to be successful on just 39.4% of plays against motion since the 2022 season — 2nd-best in NFL.
The Broncos have been successful on just 39.6% of plays they have run on play action passes since the 2022 season — 2nd-worst in NFL. The Steelers have allowed their opponents to be successful on just 42.6% of plays on play action passes since the 2022 season — 3rd-best in NFL.
Steelers RBs averaged 2.4 yards after contact per carry last season — 2nd-best in NFL. The Broncos allowed 2.1 yards after contact per carry last season — T-2nd-worst in NFL.
Steelers RBs averaged 107.0 rushing yards per game last season — 5th-best in NFL. The Broncos allowed an average of 140.9 rushing yards per game last season — 2nd-worst in NFL.
The Steelers have run successful plays on just 27.3% of rush attempts on play action passes since the 2022 season — 3rd-worst in NFL. The Broncos have allowed successful plays on just 35.7% of rush attempts on play action passes since the 2022 season — T-3rd-best in NFL.
Pittsburgh Steelers Offense: Important Stats
The Steelers started 21 drives inside their own 10 yard line last season — T-2nd-most in NFL.
The Steelers threw the ball 31% of the time (57 Pass Attempts/185 plays) on Early Downs in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 49%.
The Steelers averaged -0.84 epa per play on contested throws in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — worst in NFL; League Avg: -0.09.
The Steelers ran successful plays on 40% of pass attempts against a base front last season — 3rd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 46%.
Denver Broncos Offense: Important Stats
The Broncos targeted RBs 29% of the time (150 Pass Attempts/511 plays) last season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 17%.
The Broncos ran successful plays on 40% of pass attempts on passes when their QB was pressured last season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 29%.
The Broncos ran successful plays on 24% of pass attempts in Week 1 — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 42%.
The Broncos have scored on 15% of their drives in the 3rd quarter since the 2022 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 30%.
Pittsburgh Steelers Defense: Important Stats
The Steelers defense allowed a passer rating of just 51.0 in the red zone (71 Pass Attempts) last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 93.5.
The Steelers defense has allowed successful plays on 35% of rush attempts on motion plays since the 2022 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 43%.
The Steelers defense forced 8 turnovers in the red zone last season — most in NFL.
The Steelers defense allowed a passer rating of just 23.9 when blitzing (30 Pass Attempts) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — best in NFL; League Avg: 88.4.
Denver Broncos Defense: Important Stats
The Broncos defense allowed a passer rating of 135.0 against play action passes (114 Pass Attempts) last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 100.8.
The Broncos defense allowed 0.10 epa per play at home last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: -0.01.
The Broncos defense allowed a third down conversion rate of 22% in the 4th quarter last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 36%.
The Broncos defense allowed an average of 2.1 yards after contact per carry (428 carries) last season — T-2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 1.8.
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More NFL Betting Predictions:
- Anytime & First Touchdown Scorer Predictions
- Receiving Yards Prop Predictions
- Rushing Yards Prop Predictions
- Passing Yards Prop Predictions
- Receptions Made Prop Predictions
- Rushing Attempts Prop Predictions
- Passing Touchdowns Prop Predictions
- QB Interception Prop Predictions
- Field Goals Made Prop Predictions
- NFL Betting Previews: Every Game
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