- The Falcons are -3 point favorites vs the Steelers
- Total (Over/Under): 42 points
- Watch this game on FOX
The Pittsburgh Steelers (0-0-0) visit Mercedes-Benz Stadium to take on the Atlanta Falcons (0-0-0) on Sep. 8. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EDT in Atlanta, GA.
The Falcons are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -3 (-110).
The Steelers vs. Falcons Over/Under is 42 total points for the game.
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Steelers vs. Falcons Odds, Spread, Over/Under
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Steelers | +3 -110 | 42 -110 | +125 |
| Falcons | -3 -110 | 42 -110 | -150 |
Steelers vs. Falcons Prediction
The winning team model predicts the Falcons will win this game with 58.8% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
Steelers vs Falcons Spread Prediction
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Steelers will cover the spread with 52.0% confidence.
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Best Steelers Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Steelers players this playoff game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Jaylen Warren has hit the Receptions Over in 14 of his last 18 games (+9.15 Units / 39% ROI)
- Justin Fields has hit the TD Passes Under in 7 of his last 8 games (+6.00 Units / 35% ROI)
- George Pickens has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 12 of his last 17 games (+6.00 Units / 29% ROI)
- Russell Wilson has hit the Carries Over in his last 5 away games (+5.50 Units / 97% ROI)
- Najee Harris has hit the Carries Over in 10 of his last 14 games (+4.95 Units / 30% ROI)
Best Falcons Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Falcons players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Tyler Allgeier has hit the Longest Rush Under in 12 of his last 16 games (+7.00 Units / 35% ROI)
- Kirk Cousins has hit the TD Passes Over in 7 of his last 8 games (+6.70 Units / 59% ROI)
- Kyle Pitts has hit the Longest Reception Over in 10 of his last 13 games (+6.55 Units / 43% ROI)
- Bijan Robinson has hit the Carries Under in 11 of his last 15 games (+6.15 Units / 32% ROI)
- Rondale Moore has hit the Longest Reception Under in 11 of his last 15 games (+6.10 Units / 32% ROI)
First Touchdown Scorer Bet for Falcons vs Steelers
| Player Name | 1st TD Odds |
|---|---|
| Bijan Robinson (Atl) | +550 |
| Najee Harris (Pit) | +850 |
| Drake London (Atl) | +850 |
Anytime Touchdown Scorer Bet for Falcons vs Steelers
| Player Name | Anytime TD Odds |
|---|---|
| Bijan Robinson (Atl) | -105 |
Receiving Props: Total Receiving Yards for Falcons vs Steelers
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Bijan Robinson (ATL) | 25.5 -110 | 25.5 -120 |
| Darnell Mooney (ATL) | 33.5 -110 | 33.5 -120 |
| George Pickens (PIT) | 53.5 -115 | 53.5 -115 |
| Najee Harris (PIT) | 8.5 -110 | 8.5 -120 |
| Pat Freiermuth (PIT) | 25.5 -110 | 25.5 -120 |
Rushing Props: Total Rushing Yards for Falcons vs Steelers
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Bijan Robinson (ATL) | 63.5 -115 | 63.5 -115 |
| Russell Wilson (PIT) | 15.5 -120 | 15.5 -110 |
| Najee Harris (PIT) | 52.5 -120 | 52.5 -110 |
| Kirk Cousins (ATL) | 2.5 -125 | 2.5 -105 |
Steelers Best Bets:
- The Pittsburgh Steelers have covered the 4Q Spread in 11 of their last 14 games (+7.05 Units / 41% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Steelers have covered the 2H Spread in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.40 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Steelers have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 8 of their last 14 games (+6.05 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Steelers have hit the 2H Moneyline in 5 of their last 7 away games (+4.85 Units / 61% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Steelers have scored first in 9 of their last 13 games (+4.60 Units / 29% ROI)
Falcons Best Bets:
- The Atlanta Falcons have covered the 4Q Spread in 7 of their last 8 games at home (+6.25 Units / 74% ROI)
- The Atlanta Falcons have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 7 of their last 8 games at home (+5.50 Units / 53% ROI)
- The Atlanta Falcons have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 7 of their last 9 games (+5.10 Units / 50% ROI)
- The Atlanta Falcons have hit the Team Total Over in their last 4 games at home (+4.00 Units / 85% ROI)
- The Atlanta Falcons have hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 6 of their last 8 games at home (+3.80 Units / 42% ROI)
Steelers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL preseason, the Steelers went 0-3 (-3.3 Units / -100% ROI).
- Steelers are 0-3 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.75 Units / -100% ROI
- Steelers are 1-2 when betting the Over for -1.2 Units / -36.36% ROI
- Steelers are 2-1 when betting the Under for +0.9 Units / ROI
Falcons Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL preseason, the Falcons went 1-2 (-1.2 Units / -36.36% ROI).
- Falcons are 0-3 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.5 Units / -100% ROI
- Falcons are 0-3 when betting the Over for -3.3 Units / -100% ROI
- Falcons are 3-0 when betting the Under for +3 Units / 90.91% ROI
Pittsburgh Steelers: Keys to the Game vs. the Atlanta Falcons
The Steelers were 9-2 (.818) when not throwing an interception last season — T-6th-best in NFL. The Falcons intercepted 8 passes last season — T-3rd-fewest in NFL.
The Steelers are 17-4 (.810) when not throwing an interception since the 2022 season — 6th-best in NFL. The Falcons have intercepted 18 passes since the 2022 season — T-2nd-fewest in NFL.
The Steelers were 8-2 (.800) when within 7 points at the two minute warning last season — best in NFL; League Avg: .500.
The Steelers were undefeated (3-0) when passing for more than 250 yards last season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .586.
Atlanta Falcons: Keys to the Game vs. the Pittsburgh Steelers
The Falcons were winless (0-3) vs top 10 run offenses last season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .424.
The Falcons were 2-5 (.286) after a win last season — 9th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .496.
The Falcons were 3-5 (.375) when sacking the QB 3 or more times last season — T-4th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .650.
The Falcons are winless (0-3) when rushing less than 25 times since the 2022 season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .298.
Additional Matchup Notes for Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons scored just 3.9 points per Red Zone drive last season — T-4th-worst in NFL. The Steelers allowed just 3.8 points per Red Zone drive last season — T-2nd-best in NFL.
The Falcons scored just 3.0 points per Red Zone drive in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — T-2nd-worst in NFL. The Steelers allowed just 3.5 points per Red Zone drive in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — 4th-best in NFL.
The Steelers ran successful plays on just 33.1% of pass attempts on their opponent’s side of the field last season — worst in NFL. The Falcons allowed successful plays on just 43.3% of pass attempts on their own side of the field last season — 5th-best in NFL.
The Steelers ran successful plays on just 32.1% of pass attempts against a heavy rush last season — 2nd-worst in NFL. The Falcons pressured opposing QBs on 52.9% of pass attempts with a heavy rush last season — 3rd-best in NFL.
Steelers rushed the ball on 73.9% of plays from scrimmage in the red zone in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — highest in NFL. The Falcons have allowed 6 rushing touchdowns in the Red Zone in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — T-2nd-most in NFL.
Pittsburgh Steelers Offense: Important Stats
The Steelers targeted RBs 50% of the time (10 Pass Attempts/20 plays) in Week 18 — highest in NFL; League Avg: 16%.
The Steelers averaged -0.44 epa per play on contested throws last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: -0.12.
The Steelers ran 50% of their plays in the red zone in the 4th quarter in Week 18 — T-best in NFL; League Avg: 14%.
The Steelers were flagged 37 times on offense last season — fewest in NFL.
Atlanta Falcons Offense: Important Stats
The Falcons targeted WRs 39% of the time (209 Pass Attempts/530 plays) last season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 57%.
The Falcons committed 6 turnovers in the red zone last season — most in NFL.
The Falcons ran successful plays on 12% of rush attempts in the 1st half in Week 18 — worst in NFL; League Avg: 49%.
The Falcons ran successful plays on 28% of rush attempts against a light front last season — 3rd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 47%.
Pittsburgh Steelers Defense: Important Stats
The Steelers defense allowed a passer rating of just 51.0 in the red zone (71 Pass Attempts) last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 93.0.
The Steelers defense did not allow a successful play on any play in the 1st quarter in Week 18 — T-best in NFL; League Avg: 46%.
The Steelers defense allowed successful plays on 35% of rush attempts on motion plays last season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 42%.
The Steelers defense allowed an average of 0.1 yards after contact per carry (24 carries) in Week 18 — best in NFL; League Avg: 2.0.
Atlanta Falcons Defense: Important Stats
The Falcons defense allowed 4 TD passes in Week 18 — T-most in NFL.
The Falcons defense allowed 6 TDs in Week 18 — most in NFL.
Only 7% of the plays run against the Falcons have been in the red zone in the 3rd quarter since the 2022 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 12%.
The Falcons defense allowed a passer rating of 143.5 with a stacked front (16 Pass Attempts) last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 110.0.
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