- The Buccaneers’ 2024 preseason win total is set at 7.5 wins at BetMGM.
- Tampa Bay won the NFC South in 2023 despite closing with a win total of 6.5.
- Will Dave Canales’ departure negatively impact Tampa’s offense?
For the 2024 NFL season, the Buccaneers win total sits at 7.5 wins at the BetMGM online sportsbook.
Despite closing with the lowest win total in the division last year, Tampa cleared 6.5 wins with ease and captured their third consecutive NFC South crown.
In terms of personnel, Tampa retained some valuable players.
Both Mike Evans and Antonine Winfield Jr. are back, but offensive coordinator Dave Canales departs to coach Carolina.
Here’s a look at the NFL betting lines for Tampa Bay’s 2024 win total.
Buccaneers Win Total Odds
The Buccaneers’ season win total is set at 7.5 games, and oddsmakers expect eight or more from Tampa Bay.
Currently, the Buccaneers are -140 to win eight or more games, an implied probability of 58.3%.
Meanwhile, the odds for them to finish with seven or fewer wins is +115, an implied probability of 46.5%.
Here are the 2024 NFL win totals for all NFC South teams:
- Atlanta Falcons: 9.5 Wins
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 7.5 Wins
- New Orleans Saints: 7.5 Wins
- Carolina Panthers: 5.5 Wins
Buccaneers Win Total Prediction 2024
LEAN Buccaneers Under 7.5 Wins (+120)
Tampa managed to stave off a disaster of an offseason, but this play is purely based on the price.
I can’t think of many reasons to fade this Tampa team, but Dave Canales’s departure could prove an arduous one to overcome.
It’s tough to make that determination on a one-season sample size. However, it’s worth noting Tampa ranked 20th in offensive EPA per play under Byron Leftwich.
Last year in 2023, under Canales, Tampa jumped to 12th in offensive EPA per play, according to rbsdm.com.
To replace the departing Canales, the Bucs opted for Liam Coen, who last coordinated the Rams offense in 2022.
That unit ranked 29th in offensive EPA per play that year, albeit while dealing with myriad injuries.
Additionally, I can’t help but wonder if two departures on defense could lead to some regression.
Both Shaq Barrett and Devin White moved on from Tampa, along with corner Carlton Davis.
Virtually all of Tampa’s wins last season came as a function of a strong defense. Of their nine wins, six came while allowing 17 or fewer points.
In the event their defense doesn’t sustain levels from 2023 – they ranked 17th in defensive EPA per play – it’s easy to see a scenario where Tampa finishes under this number.
In an NFC South where I expect improvement from both Atlanta and Carolina, it’s the under or nothing for me. However, given Tampa has the 11th-easiest schedule this year, I’ll pass.
Buccaneers Over Under Wins, Live Odds
| Week Number | Win Total | Over Odds | Under Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Preseason | 7.5 | -140 | +115 |
| Week 2 | 7.5 | -140 | +115 |
| Week 3 | 9.5 | -110 | -110 |
Most Wins in Buccaneers History
The Buccaneers’ franchise record for wins is 13, achieving that in 2021 before losing in the Divisional Round of the NFL Playoffs.
They have also won 12 games once in their history.
Fewest Wins in Buccaneers History
The Buccaneers’ franchise record for fewest wins is zero, going 0-14 in their first season in 1976.
They won only two games a year later in 1977, and didn’t have a winning record until 1979.
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