Texans vs Cowboys Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 11

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Cowboys player number 4 about to throw an NFL ball game, with a struggle between Cowboys and Jets players in the background.

(AP Photo/Tony Gutierrez)

BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Nov 13, 2024, 4:05 PM

The Texans are -7.5 point favorites vs the Cowboys
Total (Over/Under): 42 points
Watch this game on ESPN | ABC | ESPN2 | ESPD

The Houston Texans (6-4-0) visit AT&T Stadium to take on the Dallas Cowboys (3-6-0) on Nov. 18. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:15pm EST in Arlington, TX.

The Texans are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -7.5 (-110).

The Texans vs. Cowboys Over/Under is 42 total points for the game.

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Texans vs. Cowboys Odds, Spread, Over/Under

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Texans	-7.5 -110	42 -110	-400
Cowboys	+7.5 -110	42 -110	+310

Texans vs. Cowboys Prediction

The winning team model predicts the Texans will win this game with 80.0% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

Texans vs Cowboys Spread Prediction

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Cowboys will cover the spread with 54.1% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Texans players this playoff game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Texans Player Prop Bets Today

C.J. Stroud has hit the Passing Yards Under in his last 8 away games (+8.00 Units / 85% ROI)
C.J. Stroud has hit the Pass Attempts Under in his last 8 away games (+8.00 Units / 81% ROI)
Stefon Diggs has hit the Longest Reception Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+7.70 Units / 59% ROI)
C.J. Stroud has hit the Carries Over in his last 6 away games (+6.20 Units / 77% ROI)
Xavier Hutchinson has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 6 away games (+6.00 Units / 86% ROI)

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Cowboys players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Cowboys Player Prop Best Bets Today

Brandon Aubrey has hit the Field Goals Over in 13 of his last 17 games (+7.05 Units / 28% ROI)
Jonathan Mingo has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 7 games at home (+7.00 Units / 82% ROI)
Rico Dowdle has hit the Receptions Over in his last 6 games at home (+6.65 Units / 81% ROI)
Dak Prescott has hit the Carries Under in 11 of his last 15 games (+5.80 Units / 31% ROI)
Rico Dowdle has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 10 of his last 14 games (+5.45 Units / 34% ROI)

Texans Best Bets:

The Houston Texans have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 12 of their last 20 games (+7.15 Units / 27% ROI)
The Houston Texans have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 13 of their last 20 games (+4.75 Units / 20% ROI)
The Houston Texans have covered the 2Q Spread in 13 of their last 20 games (+4.60 Units / 19% ROI)
The Houston Texans have hit the 1H Moneyline in 6 of their last 10 away games (+4.25 Units / 32% ROI)
The Houston Texans have covered the 1H Spread in 7 of their last 10 away games (+3.85 Units / 35% ROI)

Cowboys Best Bets:

The Dallas Cowboys have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 11 of their last 17 games (+6.35 Units / 26% ROI)
The Dallas Cowboys have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 7 of their last 9 games at home (+4.70 Units / 44% ROI)
The Dallas Cowboys have hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 11 of their last 17 games (+4.25 Units / 21% ROI)
The Dallas Cowboys have covered the 4Q Spread in 11 of their last 17 games (+3.70 Units / 17% ROI)
The Dallas Cowboys have hit the Game Total Over in 6 of their last 9 games at home (+2.70 Units / 27% ROI)

Texans Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Texans art 4-5 (-1.4 Units / -12.96% ROI).

Texans are 6-4 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.7 Units / 9.6% ROI
Texans are 2-7 when betting the Over for -5.8 Units / -52.25% ROI
Texans are 7-2 when betting the Under for +4.8 Units / ROI

Cowboys Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Cowboys are 2-7 (-5.6 Units / -57.73% ROI).

Cowboys are 3-6 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.5 Units / -36.89% ROI
Cowboys are 5-4 when betting the Over for +0.6 Units / 6.06% ROI
Cowboys are 4-5 when betting the Under for -1.5 Units / -15.15% ROI

Houston Texans: Keys to the Game vs. the Dallas Cowboys

The Texans are winless (0-7) vs top 10 defenses since the 2023 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .449.

The Texans are winless (0-4) vs top 10 offenses since the 2023 season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .348.

Dallas Cowboys: Keys to the Game vs. the Houston Texans

The Cowboys are undefeated (6-0) when within 7 points entering the 4th quarter since the 2023 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .500.

The Cowboys are undefeated (10-0) when allowing an average of less than 5 yards on first down plays since the 2023 season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .617.

The Cowboys are winless (0-9) when trailing at the end of quarter 1 since the 2023 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .317.

The Cowboys are undefeated (10-0) when allowing an average of less than 5 yards on first down plays since the 2023 season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .617.

Additional Matchup Notes for Houston Texans vs. Dallas Cowboys

The Cowboys have run successful plays on just 36.2% of pass attempts on play action passes this season — worst in NFL. The Texans have allowed successful plays on just 38.0% of pass attempts on play action passes this season — best in NFL.

The Cowboys ran just 26.8% offensive plays in on their opponent’s side of the field last week — 2nd-worst in NFL. The Texans allowed their opponents to runjust 35.5% of plays in their territory last week — 4th-best in NFL.

The Cowboys have run just 11.0% offensive plays in the red zone this season — 3rd-worst in NFL. The Texans have allowed their opponent to run just 10.3% of plays in the red zone this season — 2nd-best in NFL.

The Texans have scored on 44.4% of their drives in the first quarter this season — 3rd-best in NFL. The Cowboys defense has allowed scores on 52.4% of opponent drives in the first quarter this season — T-worst in NFL.

The Texans have allowed opponents to pressure their QB on 33.7% of pass attempts this season — 2nd-worst in NFL. The Cowboys have pressured opposing QBs on 30.5% of passing plays this season — 4th-best in NFL.

The Texans have thrown for 20+ yards on 97 of 936 attempts since the 2023 season — 5th-best in NFL. The Cowboys allowed 20+ yards on 10.0% of attempts since the 2023 season — T-5th-worst in NFL.

Houston Texans Offense: Important Stats

The Texans ran successful plays on 25% of rush attempts against a stacked front last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 42%.

The Texans ran successful plays on 29% of plays against a stacked front last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 43%.

The Texans have run successful plays on 31% of rush attempts against a base front this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 42%.

The Texans have run successful plays on 30% of rush attempts in the 3rd quarter since the 2023 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 43%.

Dallas Cowboys Offense: Important Stats

The Cowboys ran successful plays on 14% of pass attempts in Week 10 — worst in NFL; League Avg: 44%.

The Cowboys ran successful plays on 12% of pass attempts on first read passes in Week 10 — worst in NFL; League Avg: 50%.

The Cowboys ran successful plays on 8% of pass attempts against a base rush in Week 10 — worst in NFL; League Avg: 44%.

The Cowboys have committed 6 turnovers in the red zone this season — most in NFL.

Houston Texans Defense: Important Stats

The Texans defense have allowed 11 TDs that were 20+ yards this season — T-most in NFL.

The Texans defense has allowed successful plays on 6% of pass attempts with tight coverage this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 24%.

The Texans defense has allowed a Completion Pct of just 54% (167 completions/307 attempts) this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 65%.

The Texans defense has allowed successful plays on 5% of plays with tight coverage this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 24%.

Dallas Cowboys Defense: Important Stats

The Cowboys defense allowed just 4.3 yards per dropback (561 yards/131 attempts) when targeted at a depth of 1-5 yards last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 5.5.

The Cowboys defense has allowed successful plays on 26% of pass attempts with a light front this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 42%.

The Cowboys defense has allowed successful plays on 33% of pass attempts in the 4th quarter since the 2023 season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 44%.

The Cowboys defense has allowed successful plays on 23% of pass attempts in the 4th quarter this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 44%.

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