Texans vs Jets Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 9

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(AP Photo/Adam Hunger)

BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Nov 01, 2024, 3:26 PM

The Jets are -1.5 point favorites vs the Texans
Total (Over/Under): 42 points
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The Houston Texans (6-2-0) visit MetLife Stadium to take on the New York Jets (2-6-0) on Oct. 31. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:15pm EDT in East Rutherford, NJ.

The – are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at ().

The Texans vs. Jets Over/Under is total points for the game.

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Texans vs. Jets Odds, Spread, Over/Under

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Texans
Jets

Texans vs. Jets Prediction

The winning team model predicts the Texans will win this game with 50.0% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

Texans vs Jets Spread Prediction

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Texans will cover the spread with 67.0% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Texans players this playoff game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Texans Player Prop Bets Today

Stefon Diggs has hit the Longest Reception Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+7.70 Units / 59% ROI)
Stefon Diggs has hit the Receptions Under in 13 of his last 19 games (+6.45 Units / 28% ROI)
C.J. Stroud has hit the Passing Yards Under in 7 of his last 8 away games (+5.80 Units / 61% ROI)
C.J. Stroud has hit the Pass Attempts Under in 7 of his last 8 away games (+5.75 Units / 58% ROI)
C.J. Stroud has hit the Interceptions Under in 13 of his last 18 games (+5.35 Units / 19% ROI)

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Jets players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Jets Player Prop Best Bets Today

Jeremy Ruckert has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 8 games (+8.00 Units / 86% ROI)
Tyler Conklin has hit the Receptions Over in 13 of his last 18 games (+7.15 Units / 31% ROI)
Breece Hall has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 13 of his last 18 games (+7.00 Units / 32% ROI)
Breece Hall has hit the Receptions Over in 12 of his last 18 games (+5.55 Units / 25% ROI)
Breece Hall has hit the Carries Under in 11 of his last 16 games (+5.40 Units / 27% ROI)

Texans Best Bets:

The Houston Texans have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 11 of their last 20 games (+5.00 Units / 18% ROI)
The Houston Texans have hit the 1H Moneyline in 6 of their last 10 away games (+4.70 Units / 36% ROI)
The Houston Texans have covered the 1H Spread in 7 of their last 10 away games (+3.85 Units / 35% ROI)
The Houston Texans have covered the 4Q Spread in 12 of their last 20 games (+3.10 Units / 13% ROI)
The Houston Texans have hit the 2H Moneyline in 4 of their last 6 games (+2.90 Units / 41% ROI)

Jets Best Bets:

The New York Jets have hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 7 of their last 8 games at home (+5.95 Units / 57% ROI)
The New York Jets have scored first in 4 of their last 6 games (+2.10 Units / 32% ROI)
The New York Jets have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 5 of their last 10 games at home (+2.05 Units / 16% ROI)
The New York Jets have covered the 2H Spread in 4 of their last 6 games (+1.70 Units / 23% ROI)
The New York Jets have covered the 3Q Spread in 5 of their last 8 games at home (+1.70 Units / 16% ROI)

Texans Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Texans art ( Units / ROI).

Texans are 6-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.7 Units / 23.57% ROI
Texans are 2-6 when betting the Over for -4.7 Units / -52.81% ROI
Texans are 6-2 when betting the Under for +3.8 Units / ROI

Jets Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Jets are ( Units / ROI).

Jets are 2-6 when betting on the Moneyline for -9.65 Units / -58.31% ROI
Jets are 4-3 when betting the Over for +0.7 Units / 7.95% ROI
Jets are 3-4 when betting the Under for -1.4 Units / -15.91% ROI

Houston Texans: Keys to the Game vs. the New York Jets

The Texans are undefeated (3-0) when sacking the QB less than 3 times this season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .392.

The Texans are 3-2 (.600) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times since the 2023 season — T-2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: .245.

The Texans are winless (0-5) vs top 10 defenses since the 2023 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .465.

The Texans were 6-1 (.857) when rushing for more than 100 yards last season — T-4th-best in NFL; League Avg: .622.

New York Jets: Keys to the Game vs. the Houston Texans

The Jets were winless (0-6) when allowing an average of more than 5 yards on first down plays last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .421.

The Jets are winless (0-3) when allowing an average of more than 5 yards on first down plays this season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .442.

The Jets are winless (0-9) when allowing an average of more than 5 yards on first down plays since the 2023 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .428.

The Jets are 2-7 (.222) vs top 10 pass defenses since the 2023 season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .510.

Additional Matchup Notes for Houston Texans vs. New York Jets

The Jets have run successful plays on just 41.3% of pass attempts against a base front since the 2023 season — 2nd-worst in NFL. The Texans have allowed successful plays on just 43.1% of pass attempts with a base front since the 2023 season — T-5th-best in NFL.

The Jets have run successful plays on just 35.0% of rush attempts against a base front since the 2023 season — worst in NFL. The Texans have allowed successful plays on just 35.8% of rush attempts with a base front since the 2023 season — best in NFL.

The Jets have run successful plays on just 39.8% of pass attempts since the 2023 season — 4th-worst in NFL. The Texans have allowed successful plays on just 42.5% of pass attempts since the 2023 season — 5th-best in NFL.

The Texans have been successful on just 37.5% of plays they have ran this season — 4th-worst in NFL. The Jets have allowed their opponents to be successful on just 38.3% of plays this season — 4th-best in NFL.

The Texans have run successful plays on just 36.1% of rush attempts against a base front since the 2023 season — 2nd-worst in NFL. The Jets have allowed successful plays on just 37.1% of rush attempts with a base front since the 2023 season — 2nd-best in NFL.

Texans RBs have averaged just 6.8 yards after the catch since the 2023 season — 4th-worst in NFL. The Jets have allowed just 7.0 yards after catch per reception to RBs since the 2023 season — T-best in NFL.

Houston Texans Offense: Important Stats

The Texans ran successful plays on 29% of plays against a stacked front last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 43%.

The Texans have run successful plays on 21% of rush attempts in the 3rd quarter this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 44%.

The Texans ran successful plays on 25% of rush attempts against a stacked front last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 42%.

The Texans have run successful plays on 32% of rush attempts this season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 43%.

New York Jets Offense: Important Stats

The Jets converted first downs on just 19 of 51 plays (37%) on 3rd and short last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 59%.

The Jets ran successful plays on 29% of plays in the 1st quarter last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 44%.

The Jets averaged 13.9 drives per TD in the 1st half last season — worst Drives Per TD rate in NFL; League Avg: 4.9.

The Jets averaged -0.03 epa per play on first read passes last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 0.20.

Houston Texans Defense: Important Stats

The Texans defense has allowed successful plays on 3% of plays with tight coverage this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 25%.

The Texans defense allowed successful plays on 22% of pass attempts in Week 8 — best in NFL; League Avg: 48%.

The Texans defense has allowed successful plays on 3% of pass attempts with tight coverage this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 24%.

The Texans defense allowed successful plays on 11% of pass attempts with a base front in Week 8 — best in NFL; League Avg: 50%.

New York Jets Defense: Important Stats

The Jets defense has allowed successful plays on 36% of pass attempts from their own territory since the 2023 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 47%.

The Jets defense has allowed successful plays on 38% of pass attempts since the 2023 season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 45%.

The Jets defense allowed successful plays on 36% of pass attempts from their own territory last season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 47%.

The Jets defense allowed successful plays on 35% of plays with a base front last season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 42%.

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