- The Texans are a 3-point home underdog against the Ravens.
- The Ravens have won each of their last six games before a Division game.
- My Texans vs. Ravens prediction is for Baltimore to cover the spread.
The second of an NFL Christmas Day doubleheader sees the Baltimore Ravens travel to face the Houston Texans.
Baltimore captured a convincing home win over the Steelers on Saturday, clinching a playoff spot. However, Baltimore needs to win out to have a chance at the division title.
The Texans fell by eight points in a trip to Kansas City, ending a two-game winning streak. Houston, already having the division title locked up, is playing for seeding at this point.
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NFL Week X Odds: Texans vs. Ravens
Texans vs. Ravens Prediction
Based on the Texans’ incoming defensive regression and Lamar Jackson’s record as a short favorite, my Texans vs. Ravens prediction is the Ravens Spread (-3, -110).
After playing the Dolphins, Houston arrived at the part of its schedule where regression would come for their defense.
Entering Saturday’s game against the Chiefs, the Texans led the league in defensive DVOA. However, it came against the ninth-easiest set of opposing offenses.
Now they’ll turn around and play the Ravens, one of the league’s top offenses, on short rest.
Prior to Week 16, Baltimore led the league in offensive DVOA, having played the 17th-hardest set of opposing defenses.
But the crux of Houston’s problems in this game stems from their inability to successfully move the ball on early downs.
Through Week 16, Houston ranked 27th in offensive EPA per play and 32nd in offensive success rate on early downs, per rbsdm.com.
If those trends continue for Houston, which won’t feature either Tank Dell or Stefon Diggs, it creates a problem against a Ravens defense that dominates on third down.
Since Week 8, the Ravens rank fifth in defensive success rate on third down.
Not including their game against Pittsburgh, Baltimore ranked third in opponent third down conversion rate over their previous three games.
If the Texans offense encounters problems, a high-flying game script becomes a problem for Demeco Ryan’s team.
Plus, Jackson is 13-5 ATS when priced between -3 and -0.5 in his career, including 10-5 between -3 and -2.5.
Baltimore also matches a historically profitable system in this spot.
Since 2003, favorites between -3.5 and -1 in games 7-16 are 63% ATS, assuming three factors:
- The underdog’s win percentage falls between 37% and 63%
- The favorite’s win percentage falls between 54% and 81%
- The underdog’s previous game margin falls between -15 and -1
When those favorites are coming off a win by at least a touchdown, they improve to 35-18-3 (66%) ATS.
Betting Texans vs. Ravens: NFL Public Betting
Check back on Wednesday for Texans vs. Ravens public betting data and insights.
