- The Vikings are a 1.5-point home favorite against the Lions.
- The Lions have won 11 straight games against opponents on a winning streak.
- My Vikings vs. Lions prediction is for Detroit to cover the spread.
The Lions look to snatch the division lead from the Vikings with a Week 7 meeting in Minneapolis.
Minnesota sits at 5-0 SU and ATS entering this game. Prior to their Week 6 bye, the Vikings dispatched the Jets 23-17 in London.
The Lions have earned three straight wins to sit at 4-1 SU and ATS this season. Most recently, Dan Campbell’s side throttled the Cowboys 47-9 in Dallas.
Bet on Vikings vs. Lions and other NFL matchups with up-to-date NFL odds.
NFL Week 7 Odds: Vikings vs. Lions
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lions | +1.5 (-110) | 50.5 (-110) | +105 |
| Vikings | -1.5 (-110) | 50.5 (-110) | -125 |
Vikings vs. Lions Prediction
Based on Dan Campbell’s outstanding record as a conference underdog and a historically profitable trend, my Lions vs. Vikings prediction is the Lions Spread (+2.5, -110).
I’m caught between so many minds on this game, and this bet is strictly a lean.
There’s a simple starting argument. Minnesota closed a three-point underdog in Green Bay and is now a 2.5-point favorite against Detroit.
If home field advantage is worth 2-2.5 points, are the Lions really three points worse than the Packers?
I’d argue no.
The major concern with this bet is the Lions are shaping up to be a publicly-supported underdog.
As of Wednesday afternoon, Detroit received 75% of bets to cover the spread and 83% of bets to win the game outright.
That’s insanely concerning to me as I generally try to avoid betting public underdogs.
That said, history says this is a historically profitable spot for the Lions.
Dan Campbell and Jared Goff are 15-4 ATS together as conference dogs, including 8-2 ATS at +4 or shorter.
Additionally, Detroit matches a historically profitable system.
Since 2003, road underdogs between +1.5 and +3.5 in games 2-9 are 71% ATS, assuming two additional factors:
- The home favorite missed the postseason the previous season
- The spread change from open to close falls between +1 and +6.5
For what it’s worth, those teams are also 70-11 (86%) against a six-point teaser.
When those underdogs made the postseason the previous year: 27-9-1 ATS, including 36-1 against a six-point teaser.
But part of me can’t shake the feeling this is a trap spot on the Lions against a rested Vikings team with weapons to exploit an average defense.
If forced to bet it, I’d grab the Lions at +2.5. But there’s so much more on the board I like more than this bet.
Vikings vs. Lions: NFL Public Betting Trends
| Bets% (Spread) | Money% (Spread) | Bets% (ML | Money% (ML) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lions | 74% | 79% | 84% | 82% |
| Vikings | 26% | 21% | 16% | 18% |
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