- The Washington Commanders are -140 to make the postseason in 2024-25.
- In 2024, Washington made the playoffs for the first time since 2020.
- I predict the Commanders miss the playoffs in 2025 based on their record in close games.
Based on NFL odds and Commanders playoff odds, the Washington Commanders are predicted to make the postseason this year.
Second-year head coach Dan Quinn leads a team that is currently -140 to make the playoffs in 2025.
Conversely, the Commanders are +115 to miss the playoffs.
Prediction: Will the Washington Commanders Make the Playoffs?
Based on the Commanders’ lucky results in 2024 and their scheduling disadvantages, I predict the Commanders Miss the Postseason (+100).
The odds should be the first indicator that Washington proved a paper tiger in 2024.
Yes, the Commanders raced their way to 12 wins, but a third of those came by three or fewer points. Eight of 12 came by seven or fewer points.
Based on expected wins, Washington finished 2.4 wins over expected, per ftnfantasy.com.
Historically, Washington finds itself a prime candidate to go from the NFC Championship to a missed postseason.
Since 2021, five teams notched 10 or more wins while overperforming their expected win-loss record by 1.5 wins AND finishing 80% or better in field-goal games (Min. 5).
Those five teams – 2021 Packers and Titans, 2022 Chargers and Vikings and 2023 Browns – all saw at least a five-win dropoff the following season.
None of those five teams reached the postseason.
The second-place finish also saddles Washington with a more difficult schedule in 2025.
After facing the league’s second-easiest slate in 2024, preseason win totals project the Commanders to face the league’s 10th-hardest schedule.
If that weren’t enough, schedule makers handed the Commanders another hurdle to overcome.
Per sharpfootballanalysis.com, the Commanders face a -13 net rest differential in 2025. Of 17 games, three come against teams coming off a bye week.
That could easily hinder the Commanders in 2025. Plus, they’re really only an injury to Jayden Daniels away from being one of the NFC’s worst teams.
Pair that with the historical precedent, and I like the Commanders to miss the postseason in 2025.
Washington Commanders Week-by-Week Playoff Chances
| Week Number | Odds to Make Playoffs | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Preseason | -140 | 58.3% |
When Was the Last Time the Washington Commanders Won the Super Bowl?
Not since 1992 has the Washington franchise earned a Super Bowl win.
That also marks the last appearance for Washington in the NFL championship game. In franchise history, Washington has three Super Bowl trophies and two losses.
Washington Commanders Week-by-Week Super Bowl Odds
| Week Number | Odds to Win Super Bowl | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Preseason | +2000 | 4.76% |
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