- Based on preseason odds, the Washington Commanders are +275 to make the postseason in 2024-25.
- Washington hasn’t reached the playoffs since the 2020 NFL season.
- Why loads of personnel turnover will resign the Commanders to another missed postseason.
Based on NFL odds and Commanders playoff odds, the Washington Commanders are predicted to miss the postseason this year.
New head coach Dan Quinn’s squad is +275 to make the playoffs in 2024-25. That implies a probability of 26.7%.
Washington, which added rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels in the draft, is -350 to miss the playoffs, which implies a probability of 77.8%.
Prediction: Will the Washington Commanders Make the Playoffs?
I predict the Commanders will miss the postseason in 2024-25.
This isn’t so much an indictment of Daniels. Rather, it’s a bet against an offensive line I expect to rank amongst the worst in the NFL.
Their defense, which ranked 32nd in EPA per play last year, can only be better.
However, with so much turnover, it likely takes time for a team that’s expected to play three games this year as a favorite.
Washington Commanders Week-by-Week Playoff Chances
| Week Number | Odds to Make Playoffs | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Preseason | +275 | 26.7% |
| Week 2 | +450 | 18.2% |
| Week 3 | +450 | 18.2% |
| Week 4 | +240 | 29.4% |
| Week 5 | +140 | 41.7% |
| Week 6 | -150 | 60% |
| Week 7 | -210 | 67.7% |
| Week 8 | -275 | 73.3% |
| Week 9 | -350 | 77.8% |
| Week 10 | -650 | 86.7% |
| Week 11 | -700 | 87.5% |
NFC East Odds to Make the Playoffs, Preseason
| Team | Odds to Make Playoffs | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Eagles | -300 | 75% |
| Dallas Cowboys | -210 | 67.7% |
| Washington Commanders | +275 | 26.7% |
| New York Giants | +400 | 20% |
When Was the Last Time the Washington Commanders Won the Super Bowl?
Not since 1992 has the Washington franchise earned a Super Bowl win.
That also marks the last appearance for Washington in the NFL championship game. In franchise history, Washington has three Super Bowl trophies and two losses.
Washington Commanders Week-by-Week Super Bowl Odds
| Week Number | Odds to Win Super Bowl | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Preseason | +15000 | 0.66% |
| Week 2 | +15000 | 0.66% |
| Week 3 | +25000 | 0.40% |
| Week 4 | +10000 | 0.99% |
| Week 5 | +5000 | 1.96% |
| Week 6 | +3500 | 2.78% |
| Week 7 | +4000 | 2.44% |
| Week 8 | +3500 | 2.78% |
| Week 9 | +2200 | 4.35% |
| Week 10 | +2200 | 4.35% |
| Week 11 | +2500 | 3.85% |
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